high risk Posted May 17 Share Posted May 17 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Morning looks wet. Afternoon still probably mostly dry but not enough for outdoor activities. Maybe? The GFS dries things out quickly, but most of the regional models stay wet until much later in the afternoon. But yeah, either way it won't be a good afternoon for outside stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted May 17 Share Posted May 17 It wasn’t supposed to rain here today but it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted May 17 Share Posted May 17 1 hour ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: It wasn’t supposed to rain here today but it is. We had our one nice day of the week allotment yesterday...be prepared for another long stretch of crap weather and low clouds. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrlg1181 Posted May 17 Share Posted May 17 A flood watch down here ? Wow - That's about the same as a winter storm watch for the I95 corridor... These things dont happen much anymore... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted May 17 Share Posted May 17 1 hour ago, IronTy said: We had our one nice day of the week allotment yesterday...be prepared for another long stretch of crap weather and low clouds. I could just write “cloudy with drizzle, highs in the 60’s” for the Calvert forecast and be right probably about 300 days of the year now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted May 17 Share Posted May 17 On 4/19/2024 at 10:40 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: How we lookin? On 4/19/2024 at 11:29 AM, TSG said: Backdoor cold fronts and gloom through June 1 I cursed us. I'm sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 17 Share Posted May 17 5 minutes ago, TSG said: I cursed us. I'm sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted May 17 Share Posted May 17 10 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: I could just write “cloudy with drizzle, highs in the 60’s” for the Calvert forecast and be right probably about 300 days of the year now. We just bought a rowhome in NW DC (Bloomingdale) as a "city home" getaway to have...or at least that's what my wife thinks. Really it's an "escape the eastern flow" getaway. I think I'll just stay up there every March-May from now on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted May 17 Share Posted May 17 We might just be dealing with a "May showers bring June flowers" type of a situation. If my memory serves, April had more sunny days overall to this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted May 17 Share Posted May 17 2 hours ago, IronTy said: We had our one nice day of the week allotment yesterday...be prepared for another long stretch of crap weather and low clouds. It will pass soon enough, to be replaced by months of relentless heat and humidity. I will enjoy the coolish, cloudy days while it lasts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 17 Share Posted May 17 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=0283&yr=2024 Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0283 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 135 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024 Areas affected...Portions of the Central Appalachians/Blue Ridge Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 171735Z - 172335Z SUMMARY...Slow-moving shower activity with heavy rainfall rates will tend to increase in coverage this afternoon across areas of the central Appalachians including parts of the Blue Ridge. This coupled with moist antecedent conditions will promote a threat for some instances of flash flooding. DISCUSSION...A broad mid to upper-level trough over the OH Valley will continue to move gradually off to the northeast today toward the central Appalachians. Some generally weak DPVA/forcing associated with this will be interacting with modest diurnally-enhanced instability and a relatively moist airmass for broken areas of heavy showers. Radar imagery already shows some locally heavy shower activity impacting areas of southeast OH into southwest PA and down through central WV as the leading edge of relatively stronger forcing aloft arrives. Some expansion of this activity with a general increase in rainfall rates can be expected this afternoon as MUCAPE values increase to locally over 1000 J/kg and couple with smaller scale areas of more targeted moisture convergence in vicinity of a quasi-stationary front draped over the higher terrain. Relatively moist southeast flow will also provide a localized orographic component to the rainfall threat with southeast-facing slopes of the central Appalachians and portions of the Blue Ridge seeing pockets of more focused low-level forcing for slow-moving, but heavy shower activity. The rainfall rates should be efficiently high given the overall depth of moisture through the vertical column which was evidenced in 12Z RAOB data across the broader OH Valley this morning in connection to the aforementioned trough. The modest increase in instability will favor some shower activity capable of producing rainfall rates of 1 to 1.5 inches/hour with the stronger cells. Given the overall weak steering flow, and orographic nature of some of the convection, there may be a sufficient level of persistence to the showers to yield some excessive totals. This is being supported by the 12Z HREF guidance which suggests some of the heavier rates focusing over parts of southwest PA through the eastern WV/MD panhandles and northwest VA in vicinity of the Blue Ridge. Some spotty 2 to 3+ inch rainfall totals will be possible by early this evening, and with moist antecedent conditions/lower FFG values in place, some instances of flash flooding will be possible. Orrison ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...RNK... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted May 17 Share Posted May 17 1 hour ago, CAPE said: It will pass soon enough, to be replaced by months of relentless heat and humidity. I will enjoy the coolish, cloudy days while it lasts. I’m prepared to complain about relentless heat while complaining about relentless cloud cover 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted May 17 Share Posted May 17 Another weekend of canceled baseball. My son has played 5 games and had 4 rainouts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted May 17 Share Posted May 17 31 minutes ago, Interstate said: Another weekend of canceled baseball. My son has played 5 games and had 4 rainouts. The weekend patterns have been yuck for sports. The younger Ms J was supposed to have a horse show all weekend. It was postponed for the safety of the horses and riders. They show in rain but not pouring rain that would slick up the footing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted May 17 Share Posted May 17 6 minutes ago, Mrs.J said: The weekend patterns have been yuck for sports. The younger Ms J was supposed to have a horse show all weekend. It was postponed for the safety of the horses and riders. They show in rain but not pouring rain that would slick up the footing. I'm driving up to Annapolis to pick up a new motorcycle tomorrow morning, I'm sure heavy rain is a lock for the AM ride home. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted May 17 Share Posted May 17 5 hours ago, Jrlg1181 said: A flood watch down here ? Wow - That's about the same as a winter storm watch for the I95 corridor... These things dont happen much anymore... When the Watch was issued this morning, I flashed it in my newsletter with an advisory that the blend had diminished overnight from 1.02" down to .86" thru 00z 11-20. Who is correct at this hour, the models or the mets. at Sterling???? No contest.......... But 2 am has not arrived............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted May 17 Share Posted May 17 We have relatives coming in from south FL tomorrow. They are gonna feel like they've landed in Scotland LOL Can't believe tomorrow, MAY 18, will be the fourth straight Saturday of rain and highs in the 50s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted May 17 Share Posted May 17 3 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said: We have relatives coming in from south FL tomorrow. They are gonna feel like they've landed in Scotland LOL Can't believe tomorrow, MAY 18, will be the fourth straight Saturday of rain and highs in the 50s Some of our recent weather reminds me of Summer in UK. I was there for two weeks in early August last year and I loved it. There was quite a bit of sun mixed in with cloudy damp days, but the warmest was a few days in the mid 70s. Best part is I was able to delete 2 weeks of experiencing protracted heat and humidity by not being here lol. It was gross returning to Philly and sweating on the shuttle from the Airport to the parking spot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrlg1181 Posted May 17 Share Posted May 17 1 hour ago, stormy said: When the Watch was issued this morning, I flashed it in my newsletter with an advisory that the blend had diminished overnight from 1.02" down to .86" thru 00z 11-20. Who is correct at this hour, the models or the mets. at Sterling???? No contest.......... But 2 am has not arrived............. Yeah and my expectations of a another dud is looking more like the usual reality... Will see later 2nght if any legit rain occurs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 3 hours ago, BlizzardNole said: We have relatives coming in from south FL tomorrow. They are gonna feel like they've landed in Scotland LOL Can't believe tomorrow, MAY 18, will be the fourth straight Saturday of rain and highs in the 50s It could be worse, it could be like Hong Kong when I had to air swim to my Airbnb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 6 hours ago, CAPE said: Some of our recent weather reminds me of Summer in UK. I was there for two weeks in early August last year and I loved it. There was quite a bit of sun mixed in with cloudy damp days, but the warmest was a few days in the mid 70s. Best part is I was able to delete 2 weeks of experiencing protracted heat and humidity by not being here lol. It was gross returning to Philly and sweating on the shuttle from the Airport to the parking spot. i remember once flying back to NYC from the UK. We landed at JFK around 11pm and the flight attendant upon landing gave the time and the local temp of 86F / 30C. All the Brits were like "WTF???" I laughed and was like yeah welcome to NYC in July. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 6 hours ago, CAPE said: Some of our recent weather reminds me of Summer in UK. I was there for two weeks in early August last year and I loved it. There was quite a bit of sun mixed in with cloudy damp days, but the warmest was a few days in the mid 70s. Best part is I was able to delete 2 weeks of experiencing protracted heat and humidity by not being here lol. It was gross returning to Philly and sweating on the shuttle from the Airport to the parking spot. When we lived in Los Angeles for a couple of years we got introduced to June gloom. Happens when the marine layer pushes in and does not burn off. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 9 hours ago, Jrlg1181 said: Yeah and my expectations of a another dud is looking more like the usual reality... Will see later 2nght if any legit rain occurs... Looks like its raining down there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 lol it’s barely rained. Yes I see the radar, but jeez…can see the sun rising. It better pour for a couple hours. I’m not hearing it for four hours from a bunch of randos how “they” don’t know what they’re talking about. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katabatic Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 1.21" for a good soaking (3.35" for the month so far). The leaf out is nearly complete and the garden is in. Good timing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 Yup, moderate to heavy steady rain. Perfect weather for a motorcycle ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 26 minutes ago, IronTy said: Yup, moderate to heavy steady rain. Perfect weather for a motorcycle ride. Looks like it will be mostly out of here in about an hour. Most of the day might be dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 32 minutes ago, dailylurker said: Looks like it will be mostly out of here in about an hour. Most of the day might be dry. You're right! Back edge incoming on radar. The day is saved! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 0.22” here pretty underwhelming. 60 light drizzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 17 minutes ago, IronTy said: You're right! Back edge incoming on radar. The day is saved! Looks like on/off showers still but no more steady rain after this batch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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