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May 2024 temperature forecast contest

Roger Smith
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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Table of forecasts for May 2024

 

FORECASTER _____________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA

Roger Smith ______________+3.5 _+4.0 _+3.5 __ +3.0 _+3.0 _+2.5 __ +2.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0

Stormchaser Chuck ______+3.0 _+3.2 _+2.8 __ +4.0 _+3.0 _+2.4 __ +1.6 _+0.5 __ 0.0

wxallannj _________________ +2.2 _+2.0 _+1.8 __ +2.6 _+2.4 _+2.8 __ +1.8 _+0.6 _ -1.0

RJay ______________________+2.0 _+2.1 _+2.1 __ +2.0 _ +1.5 _ +2.0 __ +2.0 _+1.0 _ +1.0

Scotty Lightning __ (-1%) _+2.0 _+1.5 _+1.0 __ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 __ +1.0 _ +1.0 __ 0.0

rainsucks _________________+1.7 _ +1.5 _ +1.0 __ +2.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.3 ___+1.5 __0.0 _ +1.0

BKViking ________(-2%) ____+1.6 _ +1.8 _ +1.7 __ +1.1 _ +1.1 _ +0.5 __ +0.5 _+0.5 _+0.5

___ Consensus ____________ +1.6 _ +1.6 _ +1.7 __ +1.5 _+1.2 _+1.5 __ +0.9 _+0.6 _+0.5

wxdude64 _______(-1%) ____+1.6 _ +1.3 _ +1.1 __ +0.9 _+0.7 _+1.4 __ +0.4 _ -0.5 _-0.8

rhino16 ___________________ +1.5 _ +2.0 _ +2.1 __ +0.7 _+1.8 _ +0.6 __ +0.1 _+1.2 _+0.4

Tom _______________________+1.5 _ +1.7 _ +1.7 __ +1.8 _ +1.6 _+0.9 __ +0.7 _+0.7 _+0.6

so_whats_happening ______+1.2 _ +1.0 _+0.9 __ +0.8 _ +1.2 _+1.4 __ +1.5 _ +0.3 _-0.2

DonSutherland1 ___________+1.1 _ +1.2 _ +1.1 __ +0.8 _ +0.9 _ +0.9 __ +0.5 _+0.5 _+0.7

hudsonvalley21 ___________+0.9 _ +1.0 _ +1.8 __ +2.2 _ +1.3 _ +1.4 __ +0.8 _+0.3 _+1.2

RodneyS __________________+0.8 _+0.3 _ -0.5 __ -0.7 _ +1.1 _ +1.6 ___ -0.1 _ -0.3 _ -0.9

___ Normal ________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

 

Persistence (Apr 2024)___+2.3 _ +1.9 _+0.2 ___+3.0 _+2.2_+2.8 ____+2.7 _+0.8 _-1.1

___________________________________

Normal lowest for DCA, ATL, IAH.

 

 

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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anomalies and projections ... 

________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA

anom to 15 ______ +1.1 __ -0.4 __ -1.4 ____+4.5 _ +3.9 _ +2.1 ____ -1.2 _ +1.4 _ +0.9

p anom (31) _____ +1.5 __ +0.5 _ -0.5 ____+4.0 _ +3.5 _ +2.5 _____ 0.0 _ +1.0 _ -0.5 

p anom (31) _____ +2.5 __ +1.5 _ +0.5 ____+4.0 _ +3.5 _ +2.5 _____ 0.0 _ +1.0 _ -1.5 

final anoms ______+2.1 __ +1.8 _ +1.3 ____ +4.2 _ +3.1 _ +1.9 _____ -0.5 _ +1.8 _ -1.9  

(16) Projections are based on a slight warming trend in northeast, continued warm regime central and southeast, near normal (variable) west. 

(June 1) Final anomalies are posted, scoring will be updated later today. 

 

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Final scoring for May 2024

... scores are based on final anomalies posted in previous post.

Underlined scores are adjusted 1 or 2 down for late penalties. 

 

FORECASTER ____________DCA_NYC_BOS_east_ORD_ATL_IAH_cent_c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA_west___ TOTAL

 

wxallannj _________________98 _ 98 _ 90 __286 __ 68 _ 86 _ 86 __240 _526 _ 54 _ 76 _82 __212 ___ 738

Stormchaser Chuck ______82 _ 74 _ 70 __ 226 __ 96 _ 98 _ 94 __288 _514 _ 58 _ 74 _ 62 __ 194 ___ 708

Scotty Lightning __ (-1%) _97 _ 93 _ 93 __ 283 __ 36 _ 67 _ 87 __190 _ 473 _ 69 _ 83 _ 61 __ 213 __ 686

Tom ______________________ 88 _ 98 _ 92 __ 278 __ 52 _ 70 _ 76 __198 _ 476 _ 76 _ 78 _ 50 __ 204 __ 680

RJay ______________________98 _ 96 _ 84 __ 278__ 56 _ 68 _ 98 __222 _500 _ 50 _ 84 _ 42 __ 176 ___676

___ Consensus ____________90 _ 96 _ 92 __ 278 __ 46 _ 62 _ 88 __196 _ 474 _ 72 _ 76 _ 52 __ 200 __ 674

rhino16 ___________________ 88 _ 96 _ 84 __ 268 __ 30 _ 74 _ 70 __174 _ 442 _ 88 _ 88 _ 54 __ 230 __ 672

wxdude64 _______(-1%) ___89 _ 93 _ 95 __ 277 __ 34 _ 51 _ 85 __170 __ 447 _ 81 _ 53 _ 77 __ 211 __ 658

rainsucks _________________92 _ 94 _ 94 __ 280 __ 56 _ 68 _ 84 __208 _488 _ 60 _ 64 _ 42 __166 __ 654

hudsonvalley21 ___________ 76 _ 84 _ 90 __ 250 __ 60 _ 64 _ 86 __210 _460 _ 74 _ 70 _ 38 __ 182 __ 642

BKViking ________(-2%) ___ 88 _ 98 _ 90 __ 276 __ 37 _ 59 _ 67 __163 _439 _ 78 _ 73 _ 51 __ 202 __ 641

so_whats_happening _____ 82 _ 84 _ 92 __ 258 __ 32 _ 62 _ 86 __180 _ 438 _ 60 _ 70 _ 66 __ 196 __ 634

DonSutherland1 ___________80 _ 88 _ 96 __ 264 __ 32 _ 56 _ 76 __164 _428 _ 80 _ 74 _ 48 __ 202 __ 630

Roger Smith ______________ 72 _ 58 _ 56 __ 186 __ 76 _ 98 _ 92 __266 _452 _ 50 _ 84 _ 42 __176 ___ 628

RodneyS __________________74 _ 70 _ 64 __ 208 __ 02 _ 60 _ 90 __ 152 _360 _ 92 _ 58 _ 80 __ 230 __ 590

___ Normal ________________58 _ 64 _ 74 __ 196 __ 16 _ 38 _ 58 __ 112 __308 _ 90 _ 64 _ 62 __ 216 __ 524

 

Persistence (Apr 2024)___ 96 _ 98 _ 94 __ 288 __ 76 _ 82 _ 86 __ 244 _532 _ 36 _ 80 _ 84 __ 200 __ 732

===========================

 

Extreme forecasts 

ORD (+4.2), ATL (+3.1) are both wins for Stormchaser Chuck with high forecasts (+4.0, +3.0); shared win for ATL with Roger S.

PHX (+1.8) is also a win for high forecast by Rhino16 (+1.2). 

DEN (-0.5) and SEA (-1.9) are wins for low forecasts, RodneyS (-0.1) DEN and wxallannj (-1.0) SEA. 

(Persistence would have a win for cold (-1.1) at SEA but we don't track persistence in this aspect). 

 

... ... annual update will follow later today or early Sunday (going slow today). 

 

-----------------------------

(forecasts)

 

Roger Smith ______________+3.5 _+4.0 _+3.5 __ +3.0 _+3.0 _+2.5 __ +2.0 _+1.0 _ +1.0

Stormchaser Chuck ______+3.0 _+3.2 _+2.8 __ +4.0 _+3.0 _+2.4 __ +1.6 _+0.5 __ 0.0

wxallannj _________________ +2.2 _+2.0 _+1.8 __ +2.6 _+2.4 _+2.8 __ +1.8 _+0.6 _ -1.0

RJay ______________________+2.0 _+2.1 _+2.1 __ +2.0 _ +1.5 _ +2.0 __ +2.0 _+1.0 _ +1.0

Scotty Lightning __ (-1%) _+2.0 _+1.5 _+1.0 __ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 __ +1.0 _ +1.0 __ 0.0

rainsucks _________________+1.7 _ +1.5 _ +1.0 __ +2.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.3 ___+1.5 __0.0 _ +1.0

BKViking ________(-2%) ____+1.6 _ +1.8 _ +1.7 __ +1.1 _ +1.1 _ +0.5 __ +0.5 _+0.5 _+0.5

___ Consensus ____________ +1.6 _ +1.6 _ +1.7 __ +1.5 _+1.2 _+1.5 __ +0.9 _+0.6 _+0.5

wxdude64 _______(-1%) ____+1.6 _ +1.3 _ +1.1 __ +0.9 _+0.7 _+1.4 __ +0.4 _-0.5 _-0.8

rhino16 ___________________ +1.5 _ +2.0 _ +2.1 __ +0.7 _+1.8 _ +0.6 __ +0.1 _+1.2 _+0.4

Tom _______________________+1.5 _ +1.7 _ +1.7 __ +1.8 _ +1.6 _+0.9 __ +0.7 _+0.7 _+0.6

so_whats_happening ______+1.2 _ +1.0 _+0.9 __ +0.8 _ +1.2 _+1.4 __ +1.5 _ +0.3 _-0.2

DonSutherland1 ___________+1.1 _ +1.2 _ +1.1 __ +0.8 _ +0.9 _ +0.9 __ +0.5 _+0.5 _+0.7

hudsonvalley21 ___________+0.9 _ +1.0 _ +1.8 __ +2.2 _ +1.3 _ +1.4 __ +0.8 _+0.3 _+1.2

RodneyS __________________+0.8 _+0.3 _ -0.5 __ -0.7 _ +1.1 _ +1.6 ___ -0.1 _ -0.3 _ -0.9

___ Normal ________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

 

Persistence (Apr 2024)___+2.3 _ +1.9 _+0.2 ___+3.0 _+2.2_+2.8 ____+2.7 _+0.8 _-1.1

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Roger Smith

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<<<< ===[]===[] .......... ==== Annual scoring for Jan-May 2024 ==== ..........[]===[]=== >>>> 

 

wxallannj _______________ 392 _372 _384 __1148 __314 _402 _304 __1020 _2168 __348 _444 _424 _1216____ 3384

rainsucks _______________444 _452 _370 __1266__299 _342 _318 __ 959 _ 2225 __234 _366 _326 __926 ____ 3151

___ Consensus _________358 _346_368 __1072 __312_350 _306 __968 _ 2040 __280 _420 _376__1076____ 3116

RJay ____________________389 _394 _333 __1116 __ 313 _350 _272 __ 935 _2051 __ 288 _393 _337 __1018 ____ 3069 (3126)*

DonSutherland1 ________364 _380 _390 __1134 __ 316 _324 _256 __ 896 _2030 __ 328 _384 _310 __1022 ____ 3052

so_whats_happening ___340 _340 _380 __1060 __311 _318 _252 __ 881 _ 1941 __ 304 _360 _384 __ 1048 ____ 2989

hudsonvalley21 _________354 _288 _312 __ 954 __314 _350 _336 __1000 _1954 __290 _346 _336 ___ 972 ____ 2926

BKViking ________________360 _348 _374 __1082 __241 _319 _261 __ 821 _ 1903 __272 _401 _ 345 __ 1018 ____ 2921

Tom _____________________306 _296 _318 __ 920 __250 _326 _282 __ 858 _1778 __ 246 _392 _362 __ 1000 ____ 2778

RodneyS ________________236 _306 _346 __ 888 __195 _276 _320 __ 791 _ 1679 __ 354 _342 _396 __ 1092 ____ 2771

Scotty Lightning ________311 _249 _ 281 __ 841 __ 184 _359 _323 __ 866 _1707 __ 283 _375 _391 __ 1049 ____ 2756

Roger Smith _____________296 _260 _192 __ 748 __320 _365 _310 __ 995 _ 1743 __ 234 _374 _272 __ 880 ____ 2623

wxdude64 ______________ 249 _263 _331 __ 843 __224 _259 _239 __ 722 _ 1565 __ 307 _363 _379 __1049 ____ 2614

 

Persistence _____________ 378 _342 _376 __1096 __ 146 _306 _260 __712 _ 1808 _ 078 _ 236 _340 __ 654 ____ 2462

Normal __________________ 192 _176 _264 __ 632 __ 134 _264 _204 __602 _ 1234 __ 264 _374 _412 __ 1050 ____ 2284

 

Stormchaser Chuck (3/5)_150 _172 _198 __ 520 __ 206 _ 98 _ 94 ___ 398 __ 918 ___120 _ 264 _198 __ 582 ____ 1500 (2500)

Rhino16 (3/5) ____________ 138 _118 _120 __ 376 __ 133 _192 _ 126 ___ 451 __ 827 ___136 _ 246 _210 __ 592 ____ 1419 (2365)

 

* (note: tracking RJay raw score before Feb late penalty of 47 pts ... at current scoring, only affects rank relative to Consensus (would be tied)

also, pro-rated scores for 3/5 entrants above would be just below field and above Normal.

 

-----------------------------------

 

 

Best forecasts

 

* tied wins (one per * ) ^ 3 forecasters tied (plus Consensus and normal -- 4 for SEA for 2024-03 and PHX for April) 

 

FORECASTER ___________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___ TOTAL 

wxallannj ________________2*___ 1*___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 2** __0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___2*___ 2 ____ 2 ______ 1 _May*

rainsucks _______________ 2 ___ 3 ___ 2 ____ 2 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1^ ___ 0 ____ 0 ______ 1 _ Feb 

___ Consensus _________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^____ 0 _____ 0 

DonSutherland1 _________0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 2* ___ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1^____ 0 ______ 0 

RJay _____________________1*___ 1*___ 0 ____ 1*____ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1^ ____1 ______ 1 _ Mar 

so_whats_happening ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*____ 0 ______ 0 

hudsonvalley21 _________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 2**__ 1*___ 3 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1*____ 0 ______ 0 

BKViking ________________ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^___ 0 ____ 0 ______0 

RodneyS ________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 2 ___ 1*___ 0 ____ 1 ______ 1 _ Jan

Tom _____________________ 0 ___ 2**__0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^___ 0 ____ 0 ______ 0  

Scotty Lightning _________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 1^____ 0 ______ 0 

Roger Smith _____________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___2**__ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1^___ 0 ____ 1 ______ 1 _Apr 

wxdude64 _______________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 _____1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ______ 0 

Normal __________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^____ 0 ______ 0 

Stormchaser Chuck _____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1*___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ____0 ______ 0 

Rhino16 _________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ______ 0 

 

EXTREmE  FORECAST  REPORT 

so far, a total of 27 qualified (21 for warmest, 6 for coldest) ... Jan 2-2, Feb 8-0, Mar 4-0, Apr 4-2, May 3-2. 

* tied for a win or loss, scores adjusted in final col.

 

FORECASTER _______________ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr _ May __ TOTAL __ adj for ties

rainsucks ____________________ 2-0 _ 4-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-2* _ 0-0 __ 8-2 ___8.0 - 1.5

hudsonvalley21 ______________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 3**-0_0-0 __ 4-0 ___3.0 - 0

wxallannj _____________________0-0 _ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 2*-1 _ 1-0 __ 4-1 ___ 3.0 - 1

Roger Smith __________________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-1 _ 2*-1 _ 1*-0__ 4-2 ___ 3.0 - 2

RodneyS _____________________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 __ 3-0

Scotty Lightning _____________ 0-0 _ 2*-0_0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 2-0 ___ 1.5 - 0

Stormchaser Chuck __________0-2 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 2*-0__ 2-2 ___ 1.5 - 2.0

wxdude64 ___________________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-0

DonSutherland1 ______________0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-0

Rhino16 ______________________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 __ 1-0

___ Normal ___________________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-1 _ 0-0 __ 1-1

RJay _________________________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-2 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-2

BKViking _____________________ 0-0 _ 0-1 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 0-1

Tom, swh ______________________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 0-0

 

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Four Seasons Contest __ Spring 2024 Update

Points for four seasons ... 10 for first (total 3 scores), 7 for second, 6 for third, etc, 1 point for all entrants with 2/3 or 3/3 

 

FORECASTER _______ Winter _TOTAL _ Points __ Spring _______ TOTAL __ Points ____ TOTAL

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Mar, Apr, May

wxallannj _____________________ 1736 ____10 ___ 712_774_738___2224 ___ 10 _____ 20

DonSutherland 1 ______________1524 ____ 7 ____ 758_622_630___2010 ____3 _____ 10

RJay __________________________1391 ____ 3 _____ 762_704_676___2142 ____7 _____ 10

___ Consensus ________________1408 ____3.3 ___ 706_708_674___2088 ___5.5____ 8.8 

RodneyS ______________________1497 ____ 6 ____ 550_560_590___1700 ____ 1 ______ 7

so_whats_happening _________ 1487 ____ 5 ____ 630_682_634___1946____2 ______ 7

Roger Smith ____________________793 ____ 1 ____ 702_794_628___2124 ____6 ______ 7

Tom __________________________ 1038 ____ 1 ____ 648_722_680___2050 ____5 ______ 6

hudsonvalley21 _______________1450 _____4 ____ 636_640_642___1918 ____ 1 ______ 5

rainsucks _____________________ 1111 _____ 1 ____ 704_682_654___2040 ____4 ______ 5

BKViking _____________________ 1336 _____2 ____ 594_686_641___1921 ____ 1 ______ 3

Scotty Lightning ______________1184 _____ 1 ____ 504_710_686___1900 ____ 1 ______ 2

wxdude64 ____________________ 1098 ____ 1 ____ 452_612_658___1722 ____ 1 ______ 2

 

___ Normal ____________________ 1002 ____ 1 ____ 390_560_524___1474 ____ 1 ______ 2

 

Stormchaser Chuck ____________792 ____ 1 _____ --- _ --- _708___ 708 _____ 0 ______ 1

Rhino16 ________________________747 ____ 1 _____ --- _ --- _ 672___ 672 _____ 0 ______ 1

=====================

Persistence ___________________ 972 ____ 1 _____ 556_530_732 ___ 1818 _____ 1 ______ 2

 

 

==========================

After two seasons, wxallannj opens up a big lead with a full 20 points. 

 

 

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