donsutherland1 Posted May 4 Share Posted May 4 Showers and periods of rain are likely tomorrow into Monday. A general 0.25"-0.50" of rain is likely. It will be unseasonably cool with the high temperature reaching only the upper 50s in much of the New York City area and low 60s in southern New Jersey and Philadelphia. Monday and Tuesday will become noticeably warmer. Overall, the first week of May should wind up warmer than normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around April 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C. The ongoing basinwide El Niño event is fading. Neutral conditions could develop later in the spring. The SOI was +3.16 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.742 today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 4 Share Posted May 4 64 earlier. Was a nice morning for the kids sports and some work on the boat. 55 and cloudy now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 4 Share Posted May 4 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: 55 and rain, great day so glad it's not raining here, it was sunny most of the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 4 Share Posted May 4 47 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Showers and periods of rain are likely tomorrow into Monday. A general 0.25"-0.50" of rain is likely. It will be unseasonably cool with the high temperature reaching only the upper 50s in much of the New York City area and low 60s in southern New Jersey and Philadelphia. Monday and Tuesday will become noticeably warmer. Overall, the first week of May should wind up warmer than normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around April 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C. The ongoing basinwide El Niño event is fading. Neutral conditions could develop later in the spring. The SOI was +3.16 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.742 today. I love your enso predictions but can we get a prediction on the AO and NAO,, Don, when do you think it will turn positive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 4 Share Posted May 4 17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I love your enso predictions but can we get a prediction on the AO and NAO,, Don, when do you think it will turn positive? They both might turn positive for a period later next week, but sustained positive regimes may not occur until later in the month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted May 5 Share Posted May 5 We were pretty much locked in under overcast skies all day with a brisk east wind; 57 was the warmest. Back down to 46 with rain now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 5 Share Posted May 5 Brutal weather. This weekend was miserable 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 5 Share Posted May 5 47 here in Warwick 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted May 5 Share Posted May 5 25 minutes ago, MJO812 said: 47 here in Warwick Good morning Anthony. My mercury special, at 09:50, under the overcast, pretty much matches the Park. Stay well, as always …. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 5 Share Posted May 5 Low of 51 now to 58. 0.09 in the bucket. Temps between 50 - 59 today with clouds and showers light rain 0.15 - 0.40. Warmer tomorrow on SW flow but still mainly cloudy and more showers. Tue (5/7) - Wed / (5/8) brief warm up, pending on sunshine more upper 70s / low 80s. Clouds return later this week by Thu/Fri and another cloudy/west weekend for Mothers day. Trough 5/10 - 5/13. Warmer by mid month, but sustained ridging unforeseen through the second week of May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 5 Share Posted May 5 Absolutely horrendous pattern now. 50 and muck. Next weekend looks cool and wet again. It’s ridiculous at this point. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 5 Share Posted May 5 1 minute ago, psv88 said: Absolutely horrendous pattern now. 50 and muck. Next weekend looks cool and wet again. It’s ridiculous at this point. Yup. First half of this month is going to be cool/wet. Just miserable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 5 Share Posted May 5 Just now, Allsnow said: Yup. First half of this month is going to be cool/wet. Just miserable But warm and dry during the week. 70s Monday to Wednesday. Weekend around 60 and rain. Probably will be nice again next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 5 Share Posted May 5 1 minute ago, psv88 said: But warm and dry during the week. 70s Monday to Wednesday. Weekend around 60 and rain. Probably will be nice again next week. Ensembles have plenty of rain chances moving forward. I think you will have a day or two sprinkled in of 80’s but the majority will be less than ideal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 5 Share Posted May 5 Records: Highs: EWR: 94 (1949) NYC: 90 (1980) LGA: 90 (1955) JFK: 84 (1980) Lows: EWR:38 (1966) NYC: 34 (1891) LGA: 42 (1978) JFK: 41 (2002) Historical: 1917 - The same storm which a day earlier produced eight inches of snow in the Texas panhandle, produced a foot of snow at Denver CO, their heaviest snow of record for the month of May. (David Ludlum) 1930 - The temperature at College Park, VA, soared from 43 degrees to 93 degrees to begin an exceptional heat wave. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987) 1933: An estimated F4 tornado cut a 35-mile path from near Brent into Shelby County, Alabama. The town of Helena, AL was especially hard hit, as 14 people died. The tornado roared through Helena at 2:30 am. 1987 - Unseasonably hot weather prevailed in the western U.S. A dozen cities in California reported record high temperatures for the date. Afternoon highs of 93 degrees at San Francisco, 98 degrees at San Jose, 100 degrees at Sacramento, and 101 degrees at Redding, were the warmest of record for so early in the season. The high of 94 degrees at Medford OR was also the warmest of record for so early in the season. (The National Weather Summary) 1987 - Parts of the western U.S. were in the midst of a blistering May heat wave. The reading of 100 degrees in Downtown Sacramento CA was their earliest of record. Sacramento CA established daily record highs on nine of eleven days between the 4th and the 14th. (The Weather Channel) 1988 - A stubborn low pressure system continued to drench the eastern U.S. with rain. Thunderstorms again produced large hail in North Carolina. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Thunderstorms swept across Georgia and the Carolinas during the late afternoon and evening hours spawning seventeen tornadoes. A tornado at Toccoa GA injured 15 persons, and a tornado at Chesnee SC killed two persons and injured 35 others. Five tornadoes in North Carolina accounted for five deaths, 88 injuries, and sixty million dollars damage. Thunderstorms also produced baseball size hail at Lake Murray SC, and wind gusts to 78 mph at Brooklyn MD. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - A strong Pacific cold front moving rapidly inland caused weather conditions at the east end of the Strait of Juan de Fuca in Washington State to quickly change from sunny and calm to westerly winds of 60 mph and ten-foot waves. Three recreational fishing boats capsized in heavy seas off Port Angeles resulting in five deaths. In California, temperatures soared above 90 degrees across much of the state. The high of 101 degrees in downtown Los Angeles was eight degrees hotter than their previous record for the date. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1995: A supercell thunderstorms brought torrential rains and large hail up to four inches in diameter to Fort Worth, Texas. This storm also struck a local outdoor festival known as the Fort Worth Mayfest. At the time the storm was the costliest hailstorm in the history of the US, causing more than $2 billion in damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 5 Share Posted May 5 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Ensembles have plenty of rain chances moving forward. I think you will have a day or two sprinkled in of 80’s but the majority will be less than ideal Does look cloudy 9 - 10 of the next 14 days with rain chances. We'll see how warm Tue/Wed can get,next warm up after then looks like 5/13-5/15 timeframe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted May 5 Share Posted May 5 16 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Yup. First half of this month is going to be cool/wet. Just miserable Awful, especially with next weekend looking raw and wet yet again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 5 Share Posted May 5 36 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Does look cloudy 9 - 10 of the next 14 days with rain chances. We'll see how warm Tue/Wed can get,next warm up after then looks like 5/13-5/15 timeframe. Ensembles wait until Memorial Day weekend for drier and warmer weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 5 Share Posted May 5 50 minutes ago, psv88 said: Absolutely horrendous pattern now. 50 and muck. Next weekend looks cool and wet again. It’s ridiculous at this point. Really is like clockwork. Last spring was the exact same with the weekend wet patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted May 5 Share Posted May 5 3 hours ago, Allsnow said: Brutal weather. This weekend was miserable Just horrible. Yesterday the temps fell to the low 50s during the late afternoon with the very light rain, and today stuck in the low 50s. Probably not even any beneficial rain today either (probably have to wait until thursday). Our area might only get a tenth of an inch today based on the way radar looks right now. Just chilly damp miserable weather. As you pointed out, we likely have to wait a few weeks before we get to consistently warm weather. Typical for our area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted May 5 Share Posted May 5 @jm1220Wasn't it something like 25 of 28 were wet at some point between Friday and Sunday, Monday if it was a long weekend? It completely ruined my selling season, that sucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted May 5 Share Posted May 5 18 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Really is like clockwork. Last spring was the exact same with the weekend wet patterns. As was last fall, and even summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted May 5 Share Posted May 5 it was very chilly this morning with a brisk wind i actually wore my coat this may be the last time i will be able to do it until next november or december... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 5 Share Posted May 5 The Euro is going for a close in tropical tracks rather than recurves with plenty of high pressure over the Northeast. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 5 Share Posted May 5 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: The Euro is going for a close in tropical tracks rather than recurves with plenty of high pressure over the Northeast. Looks also like more over the top heat dome in Canada. That big high up there last summer dried it up and allowed the huge fire season that brought the smoke down here on the N flow. Maybe it’ll help keep the hurricanes away if the flow is more east to west vs N up the coast. But that puts FL and the Gulf Coast in trouble. As we know SE FL is way overdue and would make the FL insurance industry go belly up if we have a Cat 4 or 5 into anywhere from PBI to Miami. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 5 Share Posted May 5 28 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Looks also like more over the top heat dome in Canada. That big high up there last summer dried it up and allowed the huge fire season that brought the smoke down here on the N flow. Maybe it’ll help keep the hurricanes away if the flow is more east to west vs N up the coast. But that puts FL and the Gulf Coast in trouble. As we know SE FL is way overdue and would make the FL insurance industry go belly up if we have a Cat 4 or 5 into anywhere from PBI to Miami. The temperature forecast varies a bit from past El Niño to La Niña transitions. Typically the strongest warmth is centered from the Great Lakes into the East. This time the Rockies has the warmest summer departures relative to the means. It looks like we get more onshore flow like recent summers with high dew points rather than dry westerly flow which was typical during past El Niño to La Nina transition summers. Plus tropical systems getting steered into the Southeast and Gulf. So there would be numerous opportunities for the tropical moisture to funnel north. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted May 5 Share Posted May 5 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The Euro is going for a close in tropical tracks rather than recurves with plenty of high pressure over the Northeast. After a significantly warmer ENSO run in April, this new Euro run also cooled ENSO back down considerably in addition to significantly warming the MDR (new run on left)(all fwiw of course): 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 5 Author Share Posted May 5 Top 10 awful early May day...52 and rain 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 5 Share Posted May 5 11 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Top 10 awful early May day...52 and rain Yup. Radar looks good this afternoon for rain sigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted May 5 Share Posted May 5 Down to 51 now with light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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