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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Not much heat 1st half of June with trough in place. 

90s very unlikely

Much less frustrating vs. this happening a month ago. Now we are talking about beautiful upper 70s to low 80s rather than upper 60s.

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67 and partly sunny.  0.72 in the bucket.   Dry out and cooler today low - mid 70s and Fri (5/31) mid - upper 70s.  Warmer by this Sat (6/1) into the 80s, Sun pending on clouds in the low 80s.   Overall ridge west/trough east, warmer southerly flow 6/2 - 6/6 could bring multiple rain chances and perhaps a stray 90 degree reading in  the warmer spots.  Warmer by 6/9.

 

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/eus/02/GOES16-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif

 

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Weekend not looking completely dry anymore. The models now bring in some showers for Sunday afternoon.

Definitely gonna be beautiful tomorrow and Saturday though. Nice weather today too ... feels great out there with dewpoints in the low 40s, and they'll stay very low the next 2 days.

Looks like enough onshore flow to prevent any real heat next week, so I doubt we see any higher than low-mid 80s anytime soon. It'll turn a little muggy mid next week though with dewpoints rising to the 60s. 

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Records:

Highs:

EWR: 98 (1987)
NYC: 97 (1987)
LGA: 96 (1987)
JFK: 92 (1987)


Lows:

EWR: 39 (1949) -latest 30s reading
NYC: 42 (1884)
LGA: 48 (2021)
JFK: 45 (1949)

 

Historical:

 

1879 - A major outbreak of severe weather occurred in Kansas and western Missouri. In Kansas, tornadoes killed eighteen persons at Delphos, and thirty persons at Irving. Two tornadoes struck the town of Irving within a few minutes time virtually wiping the small Kansas community off the map. The second tornado was perhaps two miles wide, and exhibited multiple vortices. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

 

1927: The Kentucky River peaks during a massive flood that killed 89 people and left thousands homeless. Torrential rains caused this unprecedented flood.

1948 - A railroad bed acting as a dam gave way during a flood along the Columbia River destroying the town of Vanport, OR. The nearly 19,000 residents escaped with little more than the clothes on their backs. (David Ludlum)

1948 - Twenty carloads of glass were needed in Denver, CO, to replace that destroyed by a severe hailstorm. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Unseasonably warm weather prevailed across the eastern U.S. Eighteen cities, from Virginia to Ohio and Michigan, reported record high temperatures for the date. Afternoon highs of 97 degrees at Baltimore, MD, and Washington, DC, and 98 degrees at Newark, NJ, were records for the date. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Memorial Day heralded heavy snow in some of the mountains and higher passes of Wyoming, closing roads in Yellowstone Park. McDonald Pass, MT, was blanketed with eight inches of snow, while the temperature at Miles City, MT, soared to 94 degrees. A "supercell" thunderstorm in west Texas produced baseball size hail in Bailey and Lamb counties, and up to five inches of rain in less than an hour. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from the Upper Mississippi Valley to the Upper Ohio Valley during the day. A powerful (F-4) tornado injured three persons and caused a million dollars damage at New Providence, IA. Baseball size hail was reported at Blue Earth, MN. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Thunderstorms developing along a warm front spawned fourteen tornadoes in northeastern Texas during the late afternoon and evening hours. The thunderstorms also produced baseball size hail near Marshall, wind gusts to 77 mph at Commerce, and up to five inches of rain. Thunderstorms over southwestern Kansas produced up to six inches of rain. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1988: Memorial Day heralded heavy snow in some of the mountains and higher passes of Wyoming, closing roads in Yellowstone Park. McDonald Pass, Montana was blanketed with eight inches of snow, while the temperature at Miles City, Montana soared to 94 degrees.

 

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Yeah, plenty of back and forth especially in regard to high temperatures this spring. While the average and minimums were solidly near the top throughout,the maxes haven’t been as impressive since March 18th. We probably could have challenged the warmest spring on record  had the pattern not shifted to more blocking and onshore flow after St. Patrick’s Day. So Newark was only able to reach 90° for a max once this spring which was on the cooler side for the spring max and only on 1 day. The most impressive record warmth occurring through March 17th was a little too early to add to the 90° count. So the spring was the 3rd warmest on record at Newark even while having the lowest max and #90 days for other such high ranking years. 


 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Max Temperature Mar 18 to May 29
Missing Count
1 2010-05-29 69.6 0
2 1985-05-29 68.8 0
3 2021-05-29 68.5 0
- 2012-05-29 68.5 0
4 2023-05-29 68.1 0
5 1986-05-29 67.9 0
6 1945-05-29 67.8 0
7 1991-05-29 67.7 0
8 1994-05-29 67.5 0
9 1977-05-29 66.7 0
10 1993-05-29 66.6 0
11 1949-05-29 66.5 0
12 2015-05-29 66.4 0
- 1981-05-29 66.4 0
- 1941-05-29 66.4 0
13 2006-05-29 66.3 0
- 2004-05-29 66.3 0
- 1998-05-29 66.3 0
14 2024-05-29 66.2 0
- 1976-05-29 66.2 0
- 1962-05-29 66.2 0


 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Max Temperature Mar 1 to Mar 17
Missing Count
1 2024-03-17 59.2 0
2 2016-03-17 58.8 0
3 1973-03-17 57.8 0
4 2012-03-17 57.5 0
5 2000-03-17 57.4 0
6 1977-03-17 57.0 0
7 2020-03-17 56.9 0
8 1990-03-17 56.7 0
9 1946-03-17 56.4 0
10 1945-03-17 54.6 0


Spring average March 1st through May 29th

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Spring max and #90 days
1 2012 57.6 92…2
2 2010 57.4 95…3
3 2024 56.6 90…1
4 1985 56.2 92…3
5 1991 56.0 93…8
6 2023 55.5 93…3
7 1977 55.3 91…4
8 2022 54.9 98…4
- 2016 54.9 96…3
- 2011 54.9 92…1
- 1945 54.9 90…1
9 2021 54.8 96…4
10 2004 54.7 92…2
- 1998 54.7 90…2
- 1986 54.7 95…6
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Tomorrow will start off with cool readings in the upper 50s in New York City and lower to middle 50s outside the City. The temperature will then recover to the middle and upper 70s. A wawrm weekend with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s lies ahead. Afterward, most of next week will be dry with temperatures topping out in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Warm spots could reach the middle 80s.

The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around May 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C. Neutral conditions are imminent.

The SOI was +15.95 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.169 yesterday.

On May 28 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.457 (RMM). The May 27-adjusted amplitude was 1.609 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 65.1° (1.9° above normal).

 

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Down to 51 now to a sunny 67. Up to mid / upper 70s , stray 80 today.  Great two days in the making.   Warmer and sunny Saturday mid 80s / upper 80s in the warm spots.  Sunday cloudier , showers in the pm continuing to Monday.  Overall 6/3 - 6/8  near normal,  rain chances, ridge west , trough east - no sustained heat north of VA.   Beyond there towards mid month warmer.

 

vis_nj_anim.gif

 

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