May 2024

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

The Rockies ridge is becoming more common in the summer than winter these days. 

[donsutherland1]

Showers and thundershowers are possible tomorrow. Afterward, Thursday and Friday will see highs mainly in the lower 70s. Readings could return to the upper 70s and lower 80s during the weekend.

The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around May 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C. Neutral conditions are imminent.

The SOI was +11.20 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.411 today.

On May 26 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.691 (RMM). The May 25-adjusted amplitude was 1.584 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 65.3° (2.1° above normal).

 

[donsutherland1]

8 hours ago, MANDA said:

Hi Don-

Any idea what the longest stretch is for CPK of above normal months?  I would agree with you that is is hard to envision any of the next 3 months finishing below normal.

I'm not sure. The climate baseline changes, so there may be differences depending which baseline is utilized.

[donsutherland1]

Two photos of this morning's fog:

 

[Santa Claus]

watching the sunset from my high rise apartment as this dry breeze rolls through, post-workout, post-shower.  drinking cold milk from the jug.  this is the only time i’ve ever been happy

[rclab]

1 hour ago, Will - Rutgers said:

watching the sunset from my high rise apartment as this dry breeze rolls through, post-workout, post-shower.  drinking cold milk from the jug.  this is the only time i’ve ever been happy

Will you may have just given away your true identity. As always, …

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

The Rockies ridge is becoming more common in the summer than winter these days. 

That started a long time ago.. back in the early 2000s, every Summer had a Rockies-based ridge. 

[SACRUS]

 

Highs:

 

ACY: 85
EWR: 84
PHL: 84
BLM: 83
JFK: 82
LGA: 82
TEB: 81
New Brnswck: 81
ISP: 81
TTN: 80

NYC: 79

 

[psv88]

82 here

[MJO812]

64 here

[bluewave]

Only the 4th time that Newark hasn’t gone over 90° in the spring since 2010.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Mar through May
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	2022	98	0
2	2021	96	0
-	2016	96	0
3	2010	95	0
4	2018	94	0
-	2017	94	0
-	2013	94	0
5	2023	93	0
6	2012	92	0
-	2011	92	0
7	2015	91	0
8	2024	90	3
-	2019	90	0
9	2014	88	0
10	2020	86	0

 

[forkyfork]

i'm really liking the pva and cold aloft for storms this evening 

[SACRUS]

70 / 55, sunny.  Upper 70s / low 80s before clouds/storms (currently in WV/WPA) arrive later this afternoon and into the evening. Clear out and cools off Thu and part of Fri before warming back to the 80s by this weekend.  Period Jun 4 - 8/9th continues to look warmer and offers next / first shot at 90s for many spots.  Beyond there GFS/Euro differ with Euro trough into the East and GFS  warmer look.

 

 

[SACRUS]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Only the 4th time that Newark hasn’t gone over 90° in the spring since 2010.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Mar through May
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	2022	98	0
2	2021	96	0
-	2016	96	0
3	2010	95	0
4	2018	94	0
-	2017	94	0
-	2013	94	0
5	2023	93	0
6	2012	92	0
-	2011	92	0
7	2015	91	0
8	2024	90	3
-	2019	90	0
9	2014	88	0
10	2020	86	0

 

Interesting and Yet this May will still be on warmer side of the period top5 (+3.2 currently and ending +2.4 to 2.8)
 

2015: +4.9
2018: +3.6
2012: +3.1
2010: +2.9
2022: +2.9
2011: +2.3
2021: +1.1
2014: +0.8
2023: +0.2
2019: +0.2
2013: +0.01
2016: -0.8
2017: -2.2
2020: -2.4

 

[SACRUS]

 

Euro keeping with seasonal tendencies this year vs the gfs/cm ens a bit warmer

 

[uofmiami]

15 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Euro keeping with seasonal tendencies this year vs the gfs/cm ens a bit warmer

 

Are those maps operational models from 168-240?  If so, I’d discard and use ensembles at that time range. 

[bluewave]

18 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Interesting and Yet this May will still be on warmer side of the period top5 (+3.2 currently and ending +2.4 to 2.8)
 

2015: +4.9
2018: +3.6
2012: +3.1
2010: +2.9
2022: +2.9
2011: +2.3
2021: +1.1
2014: +0.8
2023: +0.2
2019: +0.2
2013: +0.01
2016: -0.8
2017: -2.2
2020: -2.4

 

The warm departure this month is mostly a function of the warmer minimums rather than the maximums.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of May
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2012	58.4	0
2	1991	58.3	0
3	2018	57.6	0
-	1985	57.6	0
4	2024	57.4	3
-	2011	57.4	0
5	2022	57.3	0
-	2015	57.3	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of May
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	1991	79.5	0
2	2015	79.2	0
3	1965	77.8	0
4	1986	77.5	0
5	1993	77.2	0
6	1985	76.5	0
-	1944	76.5	0
7	2010	76.4	0
8	2018	76.2	0
-	1959	76.2	0
9	1977	76.1	0
-	1964	76.1	0
10	2004	76.0	0
11	2007	75.7	0
12	1980	75.4	0
-	1955	75.4	0
13	2022	75.2	0
-	1936	75.2	0
14	2024	74.9	3
-	1994	74.9	0
-	1941	74.9	0

 

[SACRUS]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

The warm departure this month is mostly a function of the warmer minimums rather than the maximums.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of May
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2012	58.4	0
2	1991	58.3	0
3	2018	57.6	0
-	1985	57.6	0
4	2024	57.4	3
-	2011	57.4	0
5	2022	57.3	0
-	2015	57.3	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of May
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	1991	79.5	0
2	2015	79.2	0
3	1965	77.8	0
4	1986	77.5	0
5	1993	77.2	0
6	1985	76.5	0
-	1944	76.5	0
7	2010	76.4	0
8	2018	76.2	0
-	1959	76.2	0
9	1977	76.1	0
-	1964	76.1	0
10	2004	76.0	0
11	2007	75.7	0
12	1980	75.4	0
-	1955	75.4	0
13	2022	75.2	0
-	1936	75.2	0
14	2024	74.9	3
-	1994	74.9	0
-	1941	74.9	0

 

lowest highs this month

5/4: 62
5/5: 54
5/10: 57
5/11: 64
5/12: 56

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 97 (1987)
NYC: 97 (1969)
LGA: 95 (1987)
JFK: 99 (1969)


Lows:

EWR: 40 (1936)
NYC: 43 (1902)
LGA: 48 (2021)
JFK: 46 (1949)

Historical:

 

1947: An unprecedented late-spring snowstorm blasts portions of the Midwest from eastern Wyoming to eastern Upper Michigan. The heavy snow caused severe damage to power and telephone lines and the already-leafed-out vegetation.

1951 - A massive hailstorm, from Wallace to Kearney County in Kansas, caused six million dollars damage to crops. (David Ludlum)

1953 - A tornado, 600 yards wide at times, killed two persons on its 20 mile path from southwest of Fort Rice ND into Emmons County. Nearly every building in Fort Rice was damaged. The Catholic church was leveled, with some pews jammed four feet into the ground. (The Weather Channel)

 

1982: Two significant tornadoes ripped through southern Illinois. The most severe was an F4 that touched down northeast of Carbondale, Illinois then moved to Marion. The twister had multiple vortices within the main funnel. Extensive damage occurred at the Marion Airport. A total of 10 people were killed, and 181 were injured. 648 homes and 200 cars were damaged or destroyed, with total damages around $100 million.

 

1986: Hailstones over 3 inches in diameter pounded South Shore in Montreal, Quebec Canada causing over $65 million in damage.

1987 - Thunderstorms in West Texas produced softball size hail at Lamesa, and hail up to twelve inches deep east of Dimmitt. Thunderstorms also spawned seven tornadoes in West Texas, including one which injured three persons at Wolfforth. Thunderstorms deluged the Texas Hill Country with up to eleven inches of rain. Severe flooding along the Medino, Hondo, Seco, Sabinal and Frio rivers caused more than fifty million dollars damage. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - A powerful cold front brought snow and high winds to parts of the western U.S. Austin, NV, was blanketed with ten inches of snow, and winds gusted to 75 mph at the Mojave Airport in California. Strong southerly winds and unseasonably warm weather prevailed in the north central U.S. Glasgow, MT, equalled their record for the month of May with a high of 102 degrees. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Wintry weather gripped parts of the northwestern U.S. for the second day in a row. Great Falls, MT, was blanketed with 12 inches of snow, which pushed their total for the winter season to a record 117.4 inches. Six inches of snow whitened the Cascade Mountains of Oregon. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather from north central Colorado to the northern half of Texas. Severe thunderstorms spawned four tornadoes, and there were seventy reports of large hail or damaging winds. Midday thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 90 mph at Hobart, OK, and produced up to three and a half inches of rain in eastern Colorado in four hours. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

[nycwinter]

beautiful summer day  for late may...

[Stormlover74]

Decent activity moving into western nj

[donsutherland1]

Showers and possible thundershowers are possible tonight into the early morning. Afterward, tomorrow and Friday will see highs mainly in the lower 70s. Readings could return to the upper 70s and lower 80s during the weekend.

The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around May 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C. Neutral conditions are imminent.

The SOI was +15.95 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.147 today.

On May 27 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.609 (RMM). The May 26-adjusted amplitude was 1.691 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 65.2° (2.0° above normal).

 

[FPizz]

11 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Decent activity moving into western nj

Looks like it will be moving in here momentarily 

[Allsnow]

It’s going to rain 

[Stormlover74]

Rain thunder and lightning 

[winterwx21]

No thunder here, but it's raining heavily and some decent wind gusts. 

[Stormlover74]

5 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

No thunder here, but it's raining heavily and some decent wind gusts. 

Had a couple really loud strikes

[winterwx21]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Had a couple really loud strikes

I did finally get a couple here too. Not a lot of lightning with this storm though. The main thing is the extremely heavy rain. It's coming down in buckets. 

[FPizz]

Somehow all the heavier rains missed here.  .17 so far

[Allsnow]

21 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Rain thunder and lightning 

Yup. Sounds nice. It’s going to be a wet summer