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1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

They definitely shifted the slight risk a bit east from this mornings update. It wouldn’t surprise me if the remainder of NE NJ and the city get into the slight risk for excessive rainfall in future updates. We’ll see.

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30 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

They definitely shifted the slight risk a bit east from this mornings update. It wouldn’t surprise me if the remainder of NE NJ and the city get into the slight risk for excessive rainfall in future updates. We’ll see.

Nam holds off the precip until evening which would be nice

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A warm weekend lies ahead. Temperatures will top out mainly in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Temperatures will generally remain near or somewhat above normal through the remainder of May. A general 0.50"-1.00" rainfall with locally higher amounts is likely on Memorial Day.

The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around May 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.57°C. Neutral conditions are imminent.

The SOI was -0.98 yesterday.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.277 today.

On May 22 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.691 (RMM). The May 21-adjusted amplitude was 1.743 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 93% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 65.0° (1.8° above normal).

 

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Models have scattered showers tonight or early Sunday. So we have a shot at having at least a trace of rain on every weekend this spring. I wonder if this has happened before? 
 

Newark 


May 18-19…..0.04

May 11-12…0.38

May 4-5…..0.31

Apr 27-28…0.11

Apr 20-21…0.05

Apr 13-14…0.04

Apr 6-7…….T

Mar 30-31…0.01

Mar 23-24….3.10

Mar 16-17…..T

Mar 9-10….1.46

Mar 2-3…..1.31

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75 and partly sunny day going for the 5th straight 80(+) day. Upepr 70s low 80s for most. Some scattered showers but overall dry and quite nice. Sunday more of the same partly sunny low 80s for most.  Memorial southerly flow pushes humidity / and trough pushes is clouds then rounds of heavy showers and rain byt he afternoon. 

Beyond Memorial day , to close the month, trough into the NE, near normal / slightly below (coolest on Wed/Thu).  GFS drier this coming week.

A wild goose chase  for any heat or heatwave through the first 8 days of next month (next 2 weeks) as troughs will have a tendency to linger near the northeast or cut off along the east coast. Not a cool pattern but could turn wet and cut off any heat.  Ridging into the second third of the month seem the progression.

 

GOES16-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif

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13 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Why does last year's May seem so much warmer?  More 80+ days maybe?

 

Similar # of 80 degree days vs last May - less clouds and raw days last year, but overall a touch warmer this year

 

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13 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Through May 25th

 

EWR:  +2.6
JFK: +1.8
NYC: +1.5
TTN: +1.0
LGA: +0.6

Yeah, the warmer minimums are driving the departures again with the onshore flow keeping the high departures smaller than the lows.

EWR

Max…+2.1

Min….+3.3

LGA

Max….-0.1

Min….+1.4

 

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