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53 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Latest HRRR gives us some heavy rain during the morning tomorrow. Lousy timing if you want a severe weather day, but I'm hoping we can get a decent soaking. 

Don't worry you'll get another soaking on Monday lol.

At least most of the weekend will be nice I'm willing to give up Memorial Day for a dry weekend.

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Just enough SE flow at Newark today so POU was warmer for a 2nd day in a row. 
 


 

THE POUGHKEEPSIE NY CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR MAY 22 2024...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD: 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD: 1931 TO 2024


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST      
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 TODAY                                                               
  MAXIMUM         89   2:37 PM  98    1941  73     16       77        
  MINIMUM         58   5:00 AM  31    2002  50      8       45        
  AVERAGE         74                        61     13       61     

 

THE NEWARK NJ CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR MAY 22 2024...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1931 TO 2024


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST      
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 TODAY                                                               
  MAXIMUM         87   1241 PM  98    1992  74     13       78       
  MINIMUM         64    457 AM  44    1957  56      8       56       
                                      2002                           
  AVERAGE         76                        65     11       67     

 

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6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

My high was 82 I think. If winds could've been SW for a while instead of due S, we would've been upper 80s. 

Yeah, it was my warmest day of the spring so far at 82° here just east of KHVN.

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Temperatures will again reach the lower and middle 80s tomorrow and Friday. Some showers or thundershowers are likely tomorrow. Beyond that, temperatures will generally remain near or somewhat above normal through the remainder of May.

The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around May 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.57°C. Neutral conditions are imminent.

The SOI was -4.04 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.347 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 88% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 64.9° (1.7° above normal).

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Just enough SE flow at Newark today so POU was warmer for a 2nd day in a row. 
 


 

THE POUGHKEEPSIE NY CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR MAY 22 2024...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD: 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD: 1931 TO 2024


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST      
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 TODAY                                                               
  MAXIMUM         89   2:37 PM  98    1941  73     16       77        
  MINIMUM         58   5:00 AM  31    2002  50      8       45        
  AVERAGE         74                        61     13       61     

 

THE NEWARK NJ CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR MAY 22 2024...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1931 TO 2024


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST      
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 TODAY                                                               
  MAXIMUM         87   1241 PM  98    1992  74     13       78       
  MINIMUM         64    457 AM  44    1957  56      8       56       
                                      2002                           
  AVERAGE         76                        65     11       67     

 

87.8 was the high for the 2nd day in a row at KSWF.

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1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Storms tomorrow morning? 

Upton’s thoughts, a section of their AFD below,

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 802 PM EDT Wed May 22
 

Some showers and thunderstorms have fired up west of the area along and ahead of a pre frontal trough. Some of this activity could make it into western portions of the area overnight, mainly north and west of NYC, but is not expected to be severe with a lack of shear. The better chances for showers and thunderstorms for our area will be as the cold front starts to slowly move through the area Thursday morning. PoPs have trended earlier in the day with a shift in timing in the 12z CAMs. Given the environment, with MLCAPE values around 1000-1500 J/kg and 0-6 km shear increasing to around 35-40 kt, some storms could become strong to severe. The SPC continues to outline the area in a "marginal" risk of severe weather, with large hail and damaging winds being the main threat. Given the high pwats, any thunderstorms could also produce heavy downpours. At this time, there are no flooding concerns. Given the activity in the morning, it will be difficult to destabilize again for the afternoon and we will likely see just lingering showers as the front continues to sag through the area. However, if we end up seeing less or no activity in the morning, the stronger showers/thunderstorms could be in the afternoon. For this reason, have left chance of thunder through the day Thursday.

 

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