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The big block this month near Hudson Bay continues to be a factor in the long range forecast. Low pressure begins crossing the Great Lakes as we head into Memorial Day. It could potentially slow down and cutoff next week near the Northeast. 
 

833F1396-3AF8-43E9-8E8D-28C1B1B9B952.thumb.png.227b79cc7b6a4871393f70e48d029203.png
05762170-C916-461F-AA8E-0D4D4E49099B.thumb.png.0267094907901bf98a6083f662eda4b4.png

 

F80E2917-3F27-4897-B060-0EBDA69590A5.gif.3345ea12e4db9016644258991a0991a3.gif

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2 hours ago, FPizz said:

85 and real feel of 88 isn't really room temp.  But I'd take today most late spring/summer days.

Topped out at 78 here, mid 70s most of the day. Not sure what it was in southern Brooklyn though. Absolutely glorious weather day 

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A warming trend continues. The warmth will crest with temperatures peaking in the lower and middle 80s from tomorrow through Friday. Beyond that, temperatures will generally remain near or somewhat above normal through the remainder of May.

Meanwhile, parts of Texas could experience their hottest temperatures on record for May during the upcoming weekend. Del Rio, which tied its monthly mark of 109° on May 9th and has had its warmest spring through May 20th by 2.1° could approach or reach 110°. Last summer was historically hot there with that city recording 11 of its 21 110° or hotter days on record. Records go back to December 1905.

The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around May 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.57°C. Neutral conditions are imminent.

The SOI was +2.24 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.188 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 81% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 64.6° (1.4° above normal).

 

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Just enough SE flow today for POU to beat EWR.


 

THE POUGHKEEPSIE NY CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR MAY 21 2024...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD: 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD: 1931 TO 2024


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST      
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 TODAY                                                               
  MAXIMUM         88   2:57 PM  95    1941  73     15       71        
                                      1996                           
  MINIMUM         57   5:00 AM  29    2002  49      8       49        
  AVERAGE         73                        61     12       60  

 

THE NEWARK NJ CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR MAY 21 2024...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1931 TO 2024


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST      
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 TODAY                                                               
  MAXIMUM         87    244 PM  96    1996  74     13       75       
  MINIMUM         58    514 AM  42    1950  55      3       57       
                                      2002                           
  AVERAGE         73                        65      8       66    
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13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Just enough SE flow today for POU to beat EWR.


 

THE POUGHKEEPSIE NY CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR MAY 21 2024...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD: 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD: 1931 TO 2024


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST      
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 TODAY                                                               
  MAXIMUM         88   2:57 PM  95    1941  73     15       71        
                                      1996                           
  MINIMUM         57   5:00 AM  29    2002  49      8       49        
  AVERAGE         73                        61     12       60  

 

THE NEWARK NJ CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR MAY 21 2024...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1931 TO 2024


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST      
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 TODAY                                                               
  MAXIMUM         87    244 PM  96    1996  74     13       75       
  MINIMUM         58    514 AM  42    1950  55      3       57       
                                      2002                           
  AVERAGE         73                        65      8       66    

87.8 was the official high temperature at KSWF.

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24 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

87.8 was the official high temperature at KSWF.

The record heat stayed to our north today.

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
0442 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2024

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT WATERTOWN NY...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 85 DEGREES WAS SET AT WATERTOWN NY
TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 83 DEGREES SET IN 2022.
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13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The record heat stayed to our north today.

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
0442 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2024

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT WATERTOWN NY...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 85 DEGREES WAS SET AT WATERTOWN NY
TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 83 DEGREES SET IN 2022.

Record was only 2 years old :) What a fucking mess we are in…do do do

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24 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Record was only 2 years old :) What a fucking mess we are in…do do do

It was their warmest winter on record followed by the warmest spring so far.

 

Time Series Summary for WATERTOWN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Dec 1 to May 20
Missing Count
1 2024-05-20 38.1 0
2 2012-05-20 37.0 0
3 1998-05-20 35.5 0
- 1953-05-20 35.5 2
4 2023-05-20 34.8 0
- 2002-05-20 34.8 0
5 1991-05-20 34.6 1
6 2016-05-20 34.2 0
7 2017-05-20 34.1 0
8 2013-05-20 34.0 1
9 1952-05-20 33.5 2
10 2021-05-20 33.1 2
11 2020-05-20 33.0 0
12 2010-05-20 32.9 2
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1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

Record was only 2 years old :) What a fucking mess we are in…do do do

''The Ice we skate is getting pretty thin, the waters getting warm so ya might as well swim''                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Smash Mouth.

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Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 96 (1996)
NYC: 93 (1996)
LGA: 93 (1996)
JFK: 90 (1996)


Lows:

EWR: 42 (2002)
NYC: 40 (1907)
LGA: 45 (2002)
JFK: 42 (2020)

 

Historical:

 

1860 - A swarm of tornadoes occurred in the Ohio Valley. Tornadoes struck the cities of Louisville, KY, Cincinnati, OH, Chillicothe, OH, and Marietta, OH, causing a million dollars damage. (David Ludlum)

 

1881: Clara Barton and a circle of close friends found the American Red Cross. 

1895 - The temperature at Norwalk, OH, dipped to 19 degrees to set a state record for the month of May. (The Weather Channel)

1896 - The mercury soared to 124 degrees at Salton, CA, to establish a U.S. record for May. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

 

1949: A violent tornado crossed the Mississippi River from the St. Louis area into Wood River, then to Roxanna. This tornado damaged or destroyed 300 homes in these two towns, killing five people. Four people died in a destroyed restaurant in Palestine, Illinois; one body was recovered from a tree. A tornado causing estimated F4 damage killed five people and injured 55 in St. Louis and St. Charles counties in Missouri and Madison County in Illinois. This tornado was part of an outbreak that produced four different tornadoes and was responsible for five deaths and 57 injuries.

1980 - The temperature at Williston ND reached 102 degrees to set a record for May, and the next day the mercury hit 106 degrees. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Severe thunderstorms, developing along a sharp cold front crossing the central U.S., produced 60 mph winds and golf ball size hail at Sedalia, MO, and drenched Hagerstown, IN, with six inches of rain in one hour. Temperatures soared into the 90s ahead of the cold front. Paducah, KY, hit 94 degrees for the second day in a row. Light snow blanketed Montana, with three inches reported at Butte. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Severe thunderstorms swept across southern Louisiana during the morning hours spawning six tornadoes, and producing wind gusts to 88 mph at Jennings. Thunderstorms also produced five inches of rain in two hours at Lake Charles, causing local flooding. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Thunderstorms moving southeastward across the Central Plains Region into Oklahoma and Arkansas produced severe weather through the day and night. Thunderstorms spawned just four tornadoes, but there were 243 reports of large hail and damaging winds. Baseball size hail was reported at Augusta, KS, and thunderstorm winds gusted to 98 mph at Johnson, KS. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather across the southeastern U.S. for the second day in a row. Severe thunderstorms spawned five tornadoes, including one which injured a person at Richmond KY. There were eighty-seven reports of large hail or damaging winds, with hail three inches in diameter reported at Austin TX. Thunderstorms produced up to five inches of rain in Macon County GA, and heavy rains left nearly eight feet of water over roads near Stepstone KY. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

2001: Golfers participating in a golf tournament at the Majestic Golf Course in Hartland, Michigan received an urgent message on the G.P.S. on their carts. The message, relayed from the clubhouse, was that a tornado was bearing down on the course. Most of the golfers made it to safety in the clubhouse, although some had to take shelter on the course. Only one golfer suffered a minor injury. The F2 tornado damaged 70 cars in the parking lot along with numerous golf carts and a pontoon boat.

 

 

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11 hours ago, bluewave said:

The big block this month near Hudson Bay continues to be a factor in the long range forecast. Low pressure begins crossing the Great Lakes as we head into Memorial Day. It could potentially slow down and cutoff next week near the Northeast. 
 

833F1396-3AF8-43E9-8E8D-28C1B1B9B952.thumb.png.227b79cc7b6a4871393f70e48d029203.png
05762170-C916-461F-AA8E-0D4D4E49099B.thumb.png.0267094907901bf98a6083f662eda4b4.png

 

F80E2917-3F27-4897-B060-0EBDA69590A5.gif.3345ea12e4db9016644258991a0991a3.gif

when do these blocks no longer become a factor? In summer, I dont think it would matter if there were a block there or not-- it would be hot either way.

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6 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 96 (1996)
NYC: 93 (1996)
LGA: 93 (1996)
JFK: 90 (1996)


Lows:

EWR: 42 (2002)
NYC: 40 (1907)
LGA: 45 (2002)
JFK: 42 (2020)

 

Historical:

 

1860 - A swarm of tornadoes occurred in the Ohio Valley. Tornadoes struck the cities of Louisville, KY, Cincinnati, OH, Chillicothe, OH, and Marietta, OH, causing a million dollars damage. (David Ludlum)

 

1881: Clara Barton and a circle of close friends found the American Red Cross. 

1895 - The temperature at Norwalk, OH, dipped to 19 degrees to set a state record for the month of May. (The Weather Channel)

1896 - The mercury soared to 124 degrees at Salton, CA, to establish a U.S. record for May. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

 

1949: A violent tornado crossed the Mississippi River from the St. Louis area into Wood River, then to Roxanna. This tornado damaged or destroyed 300 homes in these two towns, killing five people. Four people died in a destroyed restaurant in Palestine, Illinois; one body was recovered from a tree. A tornado causing estimated F4 damage killed five people and injured 55 in St. Louis and St. Charles counties in Missouri and Madison County in Illinois. This tornado was part of an outbreak that produced four different tornadoes and was responsible for five deaths and 57 injuries.

1980 - The temperature at Williston ND reached 102 degrees to set a record for May, and the next day the mercury hit 106 degrees. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Severe thunderstorms, developing along a sharp cold front crossing the central U.S., produced 60 mph winds and golf ball size hail at Sedalia, MO, and drenched Hagerstown, IN, with six inches of rain in one hour. Temperatures soared into the 90s ahead of the cold front. Paducah, KY, hit 94 degrees for the second day in a row. Light snow blanketed Montana, with three inches reported at Butte. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Severe thunderstorms swept across southern Louisiana during the morning hours spawning six tornadoes, and producing wind gusts to 88 mph at Jennings. Thunderstorms also produced five inches of rain in two hours at Lake Charles, causing local flooding. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Thunderstorms moving southeastward across the Central Plains Region into Oklahoma and Arkansas produced severe weather through the day and night. Thunderstorms spawned just four tornadoes, but there were 243 reports of large hail and damaging winds. Baseball size hail was reported at Augusta, KS, and thunderstorm winds gusted to 98 mph at Johnson, KS. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather across the southeastern U.S. for the second day in a row. Severe thunderstorms spawned five tornadoes, including one which injured a person at Richmond KY. There were eighty-seven reports of large hail or damaging winds, with hail three inches in diameter reported at Austin TX. Thunderstorms produced up to five inches of rain in Macon County GA, and heavy rains left nearly eight feet of water over roads near Stepstone KY. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

2001: Golfers participating in a golf tournament at the Majestic Golf Course in Hartland, Michigan received an urgent message on the G.P.S. on their carts. The message, relayed from the clubhouse, was that a tornado was bearing down on the course. Most of the golfers made it to safety in the clubhouse, although some had to take shelter on the course. Only one golfer suffered a minor injury. The F2 tornado damaged 70 cars in the parking lot along with numerous golf carts and a pontoon boat.

 

 

Tony JFK was still cold in 2020 on this date?

42 degrees after snow on the 9th, wow!

 

Highs:

EWR: 96 (1996)
NYC: 93 (1996)
LGA: 93 (1996)
JFK: 90 (1996)


Lows:

EWR: 42 (2002)
NYC: 40 (1907)
LGA: 45 (2002)
JFK: 42 (2020)

 

I remember that heat wave from 1996 very well-- it was the only heat that entire year lol.

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3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

when do these blocks no longer become a factor? In summer, I dont think it would matter if there were a block there or not-- it would be hot either way.

This record blocking pattern near Hudson Bay has been in place  since last May. It’s why we had a cooler summer last year. The only extended warmth with this pattern has been during the winter when it linked up with the Southeast ridge. So we need to see this pattern weaken in order to finally get some extended summer warmth. All the warm ups since March 20th have lasted a few days before more rains and onshore flow. Also notice how this pattern has resulted in the only cool spot in the Atlantic sea of record warmth has been to our east. 
 

7720F5F2-8A3E-44F8-825D-5E8368584C5C.png.5ad8eea4ebed3a5fd01f95596c3d1a18.png

 

https://x.com/WeatherProf/status/1793089595552456781


6BE73099-37E6-420A-B0AA-8C1D49EF8E8E.thumb.png.e48eda2306e10a9856b5bf562a95050c.png

 

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45 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This record blocking pattern near Hudson Bay has been in place  since last May. It’s why we had a cooler summer last year. The only extended warmth with this pattern has been during the winter when it linked up with the Southeast ridge. So we need to see this pattern weaken in order to finally get some extended summer warmth. All the warm ups since March 20th have lasted a few days before more rains and onshore flow. Also notice how this pattern has resulted in the only cool spot in the Atlantic sea of record warmth has been to our east. 
 

7720F5F2-8A3E-44F8-825D-5E8368584C5C.png.5ad8eea4ebed3a5fd01f95596c3d1a18.png

 

https://x.com/WeatherProf/status/1793089595552456781


6BE73099-37E6-420A-B0AA-8C1D49EF8E8E.thumb.png.e48eda2306e10a9856b5bf562a95050c.png

 

Interesting-- so this same pattern makes it mild in the winter and cool in the spring and summer?

Why doesn't it link up in the spring and summer the same way it does in the winter?

Looks like we also need this block to go away to finally have some cold and snow in winter too.

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2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Interesting-- so this same pattern makes it mild in the winter and cool in the spring and summer?

Why doesn't it link up in the spring and summer the same way it does in the winter?

 

The blocking pattern became more south based over the winter which featured the record warmth. 
 

5984CB7B-B994-4134-880D-6BEB8B11764B.png.b039a4b13ebe41e6facf391ea626bd24.png
087C4505-192A-4957-885D-82852D38D290.png.2cc2699598d9eff44dd217b01e50125d.png

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