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7 hours ago, MANDA said:

Only due to persistent onshore flow did we miss out on a significantly warmer than normal May.  It was pretty much all around us with the exception of New England, SENY and NJ.  More of the over the top warmth we have seen so much of in recent years.  Even so it looks like we will finish May at 1-2 degrees above normal against the warmest 30 year normals on record.

This is exactly why we need to warm up our oceans, this damn thing seems to happen every year now.

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8 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

A warming trend is underway. The warmth will crest with temperatures peaking in the lower and perhaps middle 80s during the middle of the week. Beyond that, temperatures will generally remain near or somewhat above normal through the remainder of May.

The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around May 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.57°C. Neutral conditions are imminent.

The SOI was +9.44 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.188 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 78% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 64.4° (1.2° above normal).

 

but the question is will it be a really hot summer-- or a fake warmer summer with only high mins?

Hot summer to me  is 30 or more 90 degree days.

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Euro has some scattered showers on Saturday. So this would make it every spring weekend since the beginning of March with at least some measurable rain. Then we’ll have to see if that more organized area of low pressure develops for Memorial Day. Hopefully, the Euro is overdone on the rainfall amounts but at least some rain is possible. Still time for Monday to come into better focus on later runs.


F2AA62DF-AAE2-412E-933A-AC0AA6C2BF77.thumb.png.e00a34d46a4fd30f6b543a209389702c.png

84E321BD-7584-453F-B0FE-803C0013A965.thumb.png.bf0538ec453c3886d7bf893380a3515f.png
 

Newark and other stations have had at least a T of rain on every weekend this spring so far.

 

May 18-19…..0.04

May 11-12…0.38

May 4-5…..0.31

Apr 27-28…0.11

Apr 20-21…0.05

Apr 13-14…0.04

Apr 6-7…….T

Mar 30-31…0.01

Mar 23-24….3.10

Mar 16-17…..T

Mar 9-10….1.46

Mar 2-3…..1.31

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45 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Euro has some scattered showers on Saturday. So this would make it every spring weekend since the beginning of March with at least some measurable rain. Then we’ll have to see if that more organized area of low pressure develops for Memorial Day. Hopefully, the Euro is overdone on the rainfall amounts but at least some rain is possible. Still time for Monday to come into better focus on later runs.


F2AA62DF-AAE2-412E-933A-AC0AA6C2BF77.thumb.png.e00a34d46a4fd30f6b543a209389702c.png

84E321BD-7584-453F-B0FE-803C0013A965.thumb.png.bf0538ec453c3886d7bf893380a3515f.png
 

 

Newark and other stations have had at least a T of rain on every weekend this spring so far.

 

May 18-19…..0.04

May 11-12…0.38

May 4-5…..0.31

Apr 27-28…0.11

Apr 20-21…0.05

Apr 13-14…0.04

Apr 6-7…….T

Mar 30-31…0.01

Mar 23-24….3.10

Mar 16-17…..T

Mar 9-10….1.46

Mar 2-3…..1.31

Are there comparable stats for Tues/Wed or Wed/Thurs? I'd guess that if you looked at any of those two combos, you'd see almost no days with precipitation, lol

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7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

This is exactly why we need to warm up our oceans, this damn thing seems to happen every year now.

Good morning Liberty. This may be in the ‘be careful what you wish for’ category. I don’t look forward to a future day when the only place to see live coral and certain ocean dwellers is in an environmentally controlled oceanic museum. Stay well, as always …..

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63 and clearing out the low level clouds, sunny now.  Warmup with above to much above normal under way , should get to mid  - upper 80s  (perhaps to 90 in the warmer spots (Wed/Thu)  the next 4 days Tue ( 5/21) - Fri (5/24). Some rain chances with front later Thu / Fri. Clouds could get in the way of more 80s Sat and Sun before a wetter Memorial day this weekend.  We'll see how the front evolves and if the drier or wtter forecasts evolve.

A tendency for old fashioned troughs to close May and open the first 4 days of the next month before heights rise into the east.  Overall near normal temps and rain in the period.

GOES16-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif

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29 minutes ago, rclab said:

Good morning Liberty. This may be in the ‘be careful what you wish for’ category. I don’t look forward to a future day when the only place to see live coral and certain ocean dwellers is in an environmentally controlled oceanic museum. Stay well, as always …..

and our beaches are opening tomorrow for swimming!  I wonder what the SST is near the Rockaways?

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Euro has some scattered showers on Saturday. So this would make it every spring weekend since the beginning of March with at least some measurable rain. Then we’ll have to see if that more organized area of low pressure develops for Memorial Day. Hopefully, the Euro is overdone on the rainfall amounts but at least some rain is possible. Still time for Monday to come into better focus on later runs.


F2AA62DF-AAE2-412E-933A-AC0AA6C2BF77.thumb.png.e00a34d46a4fd30f6b543a209389702c.png

84E321BD-7584-453F-B0FE-803C0013A965.thumb.png.bf0538ec453c3886d7bf893380a3515f.png
 

 

Newark and other stations have had at least a T of rain on every weekend this spring so far.

 

May 18-19…..0.04

May 11-12…0.38

May 4-5…..0.31

Apr 27-28…0.11

Apr 20-21…0.05

Apr 13-14…0.04

Apr 6-7…….T

Mar 30-31…0.01

Mar 23-24….3.10

Mar 16-17…..T

Mar 9-10….1.46

Mar 2-3…..1.31

It's so late in the season, I doubt we can get "more organized areas of low pressure"-- scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon is all we should expect.

 

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9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It's so late in the season, I doubt we can get "more organized areas of low pressure"-- scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon is all we should expect.

 

 

late Sun/Mon are period to watch for some steadier rain chances. Think Fri - Sat are mainly dry (once front clear overnight thu/Fri erly AM)

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8 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

but the question is will it be a really hot summer-- or a fake warmer summer with only high mins?

Hot summer to me  is 30 or more 90 degree days.

I suspect that it will be the former. Summers during El Niño transitions to La Niña have often featured frequent high maximum and minimum temperatures.

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2 hours ago, ILoveWinter said:

Are there comparable stats for Tues/Wed or Wed/Thurs? I'd guess that if you looked at any of those two combos, you'd see almost no days with precipitation, lol

Yeah, the warmest days this spring so far found a way to miss the weekends as expected. Probably not the pattern the beach vendors and concessions want to see. But this is what happened last summer also with cooler and damp weekends. 
 

Warmest days at Newark this spring

4-15…83°…Monday

4-29…86°…Monday 

5-2….90°… Thursday 

5-7…..83°… Tuesday

5-8…..89°…Wednesday 

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59 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

late Sun/Mon are period to watch for some steadier rain chances. Think Fri - Sat are mainly dry (once front clear overnight thu/Fri erly AM)

The models are all over the place on the timing of the rounds of showers for the holiday weekend. I'm hoping the timing will work out so that 2 of the 3 afternoons/evenings are dry for cookouts, but who knows at this point. 

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3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

It's so late in the season, I doubt we can get "more organized areas of low pressure"-- scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon is all we should expect.

 

Memorial Day Weekend 2021 disagrees with you.  50 degrees 3 to 4 inches of rain - complete and total washout. 

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3 minutes ago, FPizz said:

85 and real feel of 88 isn't really room temp.  But I'd take today most late spring/summer days.

Agreed. It's definitely not room temp. But I'd take this above the last month of dreariness we've been having all day. 

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