LibertyBell Posted May 21 Share Posted May 21 13 hours ago, SACRUS said: 6 days of lows below 50 May 18 - May 23 lowest 39 at ewr on May 18 EWR finished -2.3 for May 2002 wow a big change from April 2002! But we went on to have a nice hot and dry summer.... Was the lowest it got at either JFK or NYC 42 that month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 21 Share Posted May 21 7 hours ago, MANDA said: Only due to persistent onshore flow did we miss out on a significantly warmer than normal May. It was pretty much all around us with the exception of New England, SENY and NJ. More of the over the top warmth we have seen so much of in recent years. Even so it looks like we will finish May at 1-2 degrees above normal against the warmest 30 year normals on record. This is exactly why we need to warm up our oceans, this damn thing seems to happen every year now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 21 Share Posted May 21 8 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: A warming trend is underway. The warmth will crest with temperatures peaking in the lower and perhaps middle 80s during the middle of the week. Beyond that, temperatures will generally remain near or somewhat above normal through the remainder of May. The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around May 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.57°C. Neutral conditions are imminent. The SOI was +9.44 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.188 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 78% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 64.4° (1.2° above normal). but the question is will it be a really hot summer-- or a fake warmer summer with only high mins? Hot summer to me is 30 or more 90 degree days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 21 Share Posted May 21 Euro has some scattered showers on Saturday. So this would make it every spring weekend since the beginning of March with at least some measurable rain. Then we’ll have to see if that more organized area of low pressure develops for Memorial Day. Hopefully, the Euro is overdone on the rainfall amounts but at least some rain is possible. Still time for Monday to come into better focus on later runs. Newark and other stations have had at least a T of rain on every weekend this spring so far. May 18-19…..0.04 May 11-12…0.38 May 4-5…..0.31 Apr 27-28…0.11 Apr 20-21…0.05 Apr 13-14…0.04 Apr 6-7…….T Mar 30-31…0.01 Mar 23-24….3.10 Mar 16-17…..T Mar 9-10….1.46 Mar 2-3…..1.31 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted May 21 Share Posted May 21 45 minutes ago, bluewave said: Euro has some scattered showers on Saturday. So this would make it every spring weekend since the beginning of March with at least some measurable rain. Then we’ll have to see if that more organized area of low pressure develops for Memorial Day. Hopefully, the Euro is overdone on the rainfall amounts but at least some rain is possible. Still time for Monday to come into better focus on later runs. Newark and other stations have had at least a T of rain on every weekend this spring so far. May 18-19…..0.04 May 11-12…0.38 May 4-5…..0.31 Apr 27-28…0.11 Apr 20-21…0.05 Apr 13-14…0.04 Apr 6-7…….T Mar 30-31…0.01 Mar 23-24….3.10 Mar 16-17…..T Mar 9-10….1.46 Mar 2-3…..1.31 Are there comparable stats for Tues/Wed or Wed/Thurs? I'd guess that if you looked at any of those two combos, you'd see almost no days with precipitation, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted May 21 Share Posted May 21 7 hours ago, LibertyBell said: This is exactly why we need to warm up our oceans, this damn thing seems to happen every year now. Good morning Liberty. This may be in the ‘be careful what you wish for’ category. I don’t look forward to a future day when the only place to see live coral and certain ocean dwellers is in an environmentally controlled oceanic museum. Stay well, as always ….. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 21 Share Posted May 21 we lost the backdoor high for sunday 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 21 Share Posted May 21 63 and clearing out the low level clouds, sunny now. Warmup with above to much above normal under way , should get to mid - upper 80s (perhaps to 90 in the warmer spots (Wed/Thu) the next 4 days Tue ( 5/21) - Fri (5/24). Some rain chances with front later Thu / Fri. Clouds could get in the way of more 80s Sat and Sun before a wetter Memorial day this weekend. We'll see how the front evolves and if the drier or wtter forecasts evolve. A tendency for old fashioned troughs to close May and open the first 4 days of the next month before heights rise into the east. Overall near normal temps and rain in the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 21 Share Posted May 21 Does Saturday look like a washout? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 21 Share Posted May 21 29 minutes ago, rclab said: Good morning Liberty. This may be in the ‘be careful what you wish for’ category. I don’t look forward to a future day when the only place to see live coral and certain ocean dwellers is in an environmentally controlled oceanic museum. Stay well, as always ….. and our beaches are opening tomorrow for swimming! I wonder what the SST is near the Rockaways? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 21 Share Posted May 21 6 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Does Saturday look like a washout? there's no such thing as a washout this late in the season, all we can get are scattered afternoon thunderstorms-- normal summer stuff. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 21 Share Posted May 21 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Euro has some scattered showers on Saturday. So this would make it every spring weekend since the beginning of March with at least some measurable rain. Then we’ll have to see if that more organized area of low pressure develops for Memorial Day. Hopefully, the Euro is overdone on the rainfall amounts but at least some rain is possible. Still time for Monday to come into better focus on later runs. Newark and other stations have had at least a T of rain on every weekend this spring so far. May 18-19…..0.04 May 11-12…0.38 May 4-5…..0.31 Apr 27-28…0.11 Apr 20-21…0.05 Apr 13-14…0.04 Apr 6-7…….T Mar 30-31…0.01 Mar 23-24….3.10 Mar 16-17…..T Mar 9-10….1.46 Mar 2-3…..1.31 It's so late in the season, I doubt we can get "more organized areas of low pressure"-- scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon is all we should expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 21 Share Posted May 21 Sunny - SW winds now and to 66. Great period (warm/dry) starting back on Sunday through this Fri. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 21 Share Posted May 21 9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: It's so late in the season, I doubt we can get "more organized areas of low pressure"-- scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon is all we should expect. late Sun/Mon are period to watch for some steadier rain chances. Think Fri - Sat are mainly dry (once front clear overnight thu/Fri erly AM) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 21 Share Posted May 21 8 hours ago, LibertyBell said: but the question is will it be a really hot summer-- or a fake warmer summer with only high mins? Hot summer to me is 30 or more 90 degree days. I suspect that it will be the former. Summers during El Niño transitions to La Niña have often featured frequent high maximum and minimum temperatures. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 21 Share Posted May 21 10 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: I suspect that it will be the former. Summers during El Niño transitions to La Niña have often featured frequent high maximum and minimum temperatures. ah so it could be both high min and lots of 90 degree days (30 or more), Don? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 21 Author Share Posted May 21 Just now, LibertyBell said: ah so it could be both high min and lots of 90 degree days (30 or more), Don? As long as you're not expecting that in Central park Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 21 Share Posted May 21 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: As long as you're not expecting that in Central park Probably not lol. It might be more like a 2005 type summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 21 Share Posted May 21 2 hours ago, ILoveWinter said: Are there comparable stats for Tues/Wed or Wed/Thurs? I'd guess that if you looked at any of those two combos, you'd see almost no days with precipitation, lol Yeah, the warmest days this spring so far found a way to miss the weekends as expected. Probably not the pattern the beach vendors and concessions want to see. But this is what happened last summer also with cooler and damp weekends. Warmest days at Newark this spring 4-15…83°…Monday 4-29…86°…Monday 5-2….90°… Thursday 5-7…..83°… Tuesday 5-8…..89°…Wednesday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted May 21 Share Posted May 21 59 minutes ago, SACRUS said: late Sun/Mon are period to watch for some steadier rain chances. Think Fri - Sat are mainly dry (once front clear overnight thu/Fri erly AM) The models are all over the place on the timing of the rounds of showers for the holiday weekend. I'm hoping the timing will work out so that 2 of the 3 afternoons/evenings are dry for cookouts, but who knows at this point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 21 Share Posted May 21 Too warm today and tomorrow. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 21 Share Posted May 21 47 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Too warm today and tomorrow. It’s just above room temperature. Stop. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted May 21 Share Posted May 21 3 hours ago, LibertyBell said: It's so late in the season, I doubt we can get "more organized areas of low pressure"-- scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon is all we should expect. Memorial Day Weekend 2021 disagrees with you. 50 degrees 3 to 4 inches of rain - complete and total washout. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 21 Share Posted May 21 Up to 81 with bright sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted May 21 Share Posted May 21 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Too warm today and tomorrow. Boo hoo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted May 21 Share Posted May 21 1 hour ago, psv88 said: It’s just above room temperature. Stop. He's trolling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 21 Share Posted May 21 16 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said: Boo hoo Not everyone likes warm weather so zip it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted May 21 Share Posted May 21 15 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Not everyone likes warm weather so zip it. Not everyone likes miserable rain and cold. So back at ya. Zip it cause we're all tired of that weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted May 21 Share Posted May 21 7 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said: He's trolling 85 and real feel of 88 isn't really room temp. But I'd take today most late spring/summer days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted May 21 Share Posted May 21 3 minutes ago, FPizz said: 85 and real feel of 88 isn't really room temp. But I'd take today most late spring/summer days. Agreed. It's definitely not room temp. But I'd take this above the last month of dreariness we've been having all day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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