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5 hours ago, bluewave said:

While it’s too early to do a rainfall or clouds potential forecast for Memorial Day, looks like we could see more onshore flow with high pressure anchored east of New England. 
 

FB05738B-FDC1-4C8E-8AC6-0ED5898DBC82.thumb.png.07be2d3f1d1d19ca8cfb94da23e21b09.png
7235EB9D-F6BC-4CC4-856E-0A661AEFCC18.thumb.png.3ccc56d3c690c82d7408320be5b4dda9.png

 

That second map especially looks like garbage for us. Hopefully it's wrong. I agree that midweek should be warm if we can get a westerly flow of some kind finally.

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1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

That second map especially looks like garbage for us. Hopefully it's wrong. I agree that midweek should be warm if we can get a westerly flow of some kind finally.

Yeah, temperatures should peak midweek before the cold front arrives. Places like Newark could reach 90° if the flow goes more SSW instead of the current SSE forecast with the slight bend in the streamlines. Best bet to reach 90° is probably in Central NJ away from the sea breeze. Plus areas from Albany to New Hampshire could reach 90° since sea breezes won’t be an issue there.  Even your area on the North Shore could get into the 80s.  Looks like a step down in temperatures as the stronger onshore flow returns by Memorial Day.
 

2E8EC07F-D90F-4F9E-88A0-885518145B72.thumb.gif.a0499b01f2b4e3a429180b40e25b98b0.gif
 

E018CCE2-7250-43BA-B31D-5038509415BC.thumb.png.d8c1c8393966dddb8b0a2a39825af8f0.png

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A warming trend is getting underway. The warmth will crest with temperatures peaking in the lower and perhaps middle 80s during the middle of the week. Beyond that, temperatures will generally remain near or somewhat above normal through the remainder of May.

The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.3°C for the week centered around May 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.73°C. Neutral conditions are developing.

The SOI was +5.99 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.223 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 76% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 64.3° (1.1° above normal).

 

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, temperatures should peak midweek before the cold front arrives. Places like Newark could reach 90° if the flow goes more SSW instead of the current SSE forecast with the slight bend in the streamlines. Best bet to reach 90° is probably in Central NJ away from the sea breeze. Plus areas from Albany to New Hampshire could reach 90° since sea breezes won’t be an issue there.  Even your area on the North Shore could get into the 80s.  Looks like a step down in temperatures as the stronger onshore flow returns by Memorial Day.
 

2E8EC07F-D90F-4F9E-88A0-885518145B72.thumb.gif.a0499b01f2b4e3a429180b40e25b98b0.gif
 

E018CCE2-7250-43BA-B31D-5038509415BC.thumb.png.d8c1c8393966dddb8b0a2a39825af8f0.png

I don’t think 80s will be an issue here as long as there’s some westerly component to the wind. The barrier beaches of course are another story. 

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4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Despite all the bitching and moaning about clouds, rain and cool weather, May will still end up being above normal lol

And below average precip at ewr unless we get a deluge in the final week.

But doesn't tell the whole story with clouds so much of the time and measurable precip half the days

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Anniversary of the warmest spring day on record around NYC Metro back in 1996. Deep WNW flow all the way out to Islip ahead of the sea breeze front. This was back in the days before these onshore flow patterns with high pressure east of New England began increasing. It’s ironic that our warmest spring day on record nearly reaching 100° occurred after the greatest winter on record for snow lovers. We also had one of our coolest summers after that. It was the last year with under 10 days reaching 90° at Newark. 
 

Data for May 20, 1996 through May 20, 1996
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
State
Name
Station Type
Highest Max Temperature 
NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 99
NY MINEOLA 1 NE COOP 99
NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 98
CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 98
NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 97
NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 97
NY MINEOLA COOP 97
CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 97
CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 97
NY PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP 97
NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 97
NY PORT JERVIS COOP 96
NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 96
NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 96
NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 96
NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 95
NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 95
CT MOUNT CARMEL COOP 95
NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP 95
NY WEST POINT COOP 95
NY WEST NYACK COOP 95


 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Mar through May
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1996 98 0
2 1987 95 0
- 1969 95 0
3 2002 94 0
4 2022 93 0
- 1986 93 0
5 2010 92 0
- 1992 92 0
- 1991 92 0
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65 and some low clouds angled NE - SE on a strong E/NE flow. SKies clear by noon for all. A very nice day mid 70s to near 80 in the warmer spots.  Overall dry and warm week.  Step up to the 80s  Tue (5/21) - Fri (5/24), peaking Wed and Thu with upper 80s to near 90 in the warmer locations as 850 MB temperatures peak near 16 - 19C.  Front comes through later Thu evening with the next shot at rain/storms before clearing and generally remaining war on Fri.

The coming long Memorial Day weekend looks split with a warmer / drier Fri - Sat with the onshore flow returning Sun (5/26) with clouds and cooler and perhaps a cooler, wetter Memorial Day (5/27).   Beyond there near normal overall to open next mont with trough pulling of of the east and heights rising towards the 3rd.

 

GOES16-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif

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Records:

Highs:

EWR: 99 (1996)
NYC: 96 (1996)
LGA: 97 (1996)
JFK: 95 (1996)


Lows:

EWR: 41 (2002)
NYC: 43 (2002)
LGA: 44 (2002)
JFK: 42 (2002)


Historical:

1894 - A record late snow of two to eight inches whitened parts of central and eastern Kentucky. Lexington KY received six inches of snow. (The Weather Channel)

1916 - A tornado struck the town of Codell, KS. A tornado struck the town on the same day the following year (1917), and a third tornado hit Cordell on May 20th in 1918. (The Weather Channel)

1957 - A tornado touched down to the southwest of Kansas City and traveled a distance of seventy-one miles cutting a swath of near total destruction through the southeastern suburbs of Ruskin Heights and Hickman Mills. The tornado claimed the lives of forty-five persons, and left hundreds homeless. It was the worst weather disaster of record for Kansas City. About all that remained of one house was a small table and a fish bowl atop, with the fish still swimming about inside the bowl, rather unconcerned. (The Kansas City Weather Almanac)

1987 - Thunderstorms in southern Texas produced grapefruit size hail, near the town of Dilley ("by dilly"), and produced wind gusts to 73 mph at Lake Amistad. The large hail broke windows, killed small animals, and damaged watermelon. Thunderstorms developing along a warm front produced severe weather from Indiana to the Dakotas. Thunderstorms produced baseball size hail at Denver IA, and wind gusts to 80 mph in southern Henry County IL. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Thunderstorms in the south central U.S. produced wind gusts to 70 mph at Omaha, NE, and wind gusts to 80 mph at Midland and Dallas, TX. Temperatures in California soared into the 90s and above 100 degrees. San Jose CA reported a record high of 97 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Pre-dawn thunderstorms produced large hail in eastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas. Later in the morning thunderstorms in North Carolina produced dime size hail at Hanging Dog. Thunderstorms also produced severe weather from the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Central Plains Region later that day and night, with baseball size hail reported around Lawn, Novice and Eola TX. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather across the southeastern quarter of the nation through the day and night. Severe thunderstorms spawned six tornadoes, including one which injured two persons at Algoma, MS, and another which injured nine persons at Rogersville, MO. There were 119 reports of large hail or damaging winds. Thunderstorms produced baseball size hail at Houston MO and damaging winds which killed one person at Toccoa GA. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

 

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In addition to the 90 degree heat, I think we have severe t-storm potential on Thursday. Nice that we have some interesting weather to look forward to this week after all the boring east wind weather we've had this month. 

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35 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Daylight 14H: 37M   equivalent to July 22nd.  Another 31 days of lengthening days.

Yes, another 31 days but the gain of daylight is subtle each day now.  Only 15 minutes more of evening daylight gain before we reach latest sunset.  We've almost dug out the hole and it will be time to start filling it back in again...so to speak.

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43 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Yes, another 31 days but the gain of daylight is subtle each day now.  Only 15 minutes more of evening daylight gain before we reach latest sunset.  We've almost dug out the hole and it will be time to start filling it back in again...so to speak.

5:30 to 8:10 here right now--we get to 5:23 and 8:30.   Weird how it's not even on each end....

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44 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Yes, another 31 days but the gain of daylight is subtle each day now.  Only 15 minutes more of evening daylight gain before we reach latest sunset.  We've almost dug out the hole and it will be time to start filling it back in again...so to speak.

We'll gain a total of 29 mins between now and peak.  Nice to see the sun minus the clouds

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