nycwinter Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 i managed to sneak in one more hoodie day and to my surprise a lot of people were wearing a hoodie... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 21 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: There's nothing globally that's happening that is different from the decadal trend, so I like the forecast. In 2020, I started realizing that we were "evening out" one year to another (Feb 2020 would be +pna so Feb 2021 would be -pna, etc.), and I do think we are "due" for hotter weather in the Spring/Summer, partially because of how much cooler it has been relative to the trend in recent years. if not this year, then future years.. March 2012 was super warm, then Summer 2012 broke the record for arctic ice melt, so maybe as that starts heavily progressing again we will go warmer? The long range forecast challenge these days is trying to figure out when the stuck decadal background pattern is going to deviate from recent experience. We got a rare cooler summer last year relative to the recent summer composite. But it took the strongest extended Canadian blocking pattern on record during the warm season. Plus we had the developing El Niño summer which have been traditionally cooler. Our only recent winter month to buck the historic warm winter pattern over the last decade was January 2022. That required an amplified MJO 8 and very strong NE PAC block to pull off the only winter month since the 15-16 super El Niño to average around 30° for NYC. But it was short lived and the whole winter averaged out warmer than normal. It was the last real winter month for many of us with great snowstorms east of NYC. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 Raining again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 34 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Raining again cool and rainy my kind of weather... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 Cool and rainy here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and pleasant. Temperatures will likely top out in the lower and perhaps middle 70s. Afterward, a warm week lies ahead. Although significant early-season heat is likely through at least the first three weeks of May, temperatures could reach the 80s on several days. Through May 18th, New York City has had a spring mean temperature of 53.9°. That makes Spring 2024 the 4th warmest spring on record through May 18th. Only 1945 (54.1°), 2010 (55.1°) and 2012 (54.8°) were warmer. The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.3°C for the week centered around May 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.73°C. Neutral conditions are developing. The SOI was -1.67 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.223 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 64.0° (0.8° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 It’s currently warmer on the southern coast of the Hudson Bay in northern Ontario than it is here. Please make it stop 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 Some nasty heat in FL last few days. Interesting HI stat from Miami. All very recent perhaps reflecting the increased moisture in the atmosphere of late. Don't know now anyone could tolerate FL in the Summer. Just not for me. High sun angle, high temperatures and stifling humidity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 Records: Highs: EWR: 94 (2017) NYC: 92 (2017) LGA: 97 (2017) JFK: 88 (1977) Lows: EWR: 43 (2003) NYC: 41 (1973) LGA: 44 (2002) JFK: 42 (2023) Historical: 1825 - A tornado (said to have crossed all of the state of Ohio) smashed into the log cabin settlement of Burlington, northeast of Columbus. (David Ludlum) 1883: The massive tornado outbreak on record in Illinois affected the northern and central parts of the state. At least 14 strong to violent tornadoes touched down killing 52 people. The largest death toll from a single tornado was 12, with 50 injuries, from an estimated F4 tornado which moved from near Jacksonville to 5 miles west of Petersburg. This tornado destroyed the town of Literberry. Another tornado, with an estimated F4 intensity, killed 11 people and injured 50 along its path from the south edge of Springfield northeast to near Kenney. This particular tornado reportedly drove 10 inches by 12-inch oak timbers 10 feet into the ground. Another estimated F4 tornado in far northern Illinois touched down near Capron and tracked for 17 miles before lifting in far southern Wisconsin. Lastly, an estimated F4 tornado tracked 20 miles through Kenosha and Racine Counties in Wisconsin. Eight people were killed, and 85 were injured. 1960 - Salt Lake City UT received an inch of snow. It marked their latest measurable snowfall of record. (The Weather Channel) 1980 - Mount Saint Helens (in Washington State) erupted spewing ash and smoke sixty-three thousand feet into the air. Heavy ash covered the ground to the immediate northwest, and small particles were carried to the Atlantic coast. (David Ludlum) 1987 - Thunderstorms in Kansas, developing along a cold front, spawned tornadoes at Emporia and Toledo, produced wind gusts to 65 mph at Fort Scott, and produced golf ball size hail in the Kansas City area. Unseasonably hot weather prevailed ahead of the cold front. Pomona NJ reported a record high of 93 degrees, and Altus, OK, hit 100 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Low pressure anchored over eastern Virginia kept showers and thunderstorms over the Middle Atlantic Coast Region. Flash flooding was reported in Pennsylvania. Up to five inches of rain drenched Franklin County PA in 24 hours. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced severe weather from the Central Gulf Coast States to the Lower Missouri Valley during the day and evening. Thunderstorms spawned sixteen tornadoes, and there were 74 reports of large hail and damaging winds. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the central U.S. spawning a sixteen tornadoes, including a dozen in Nebraska. Thunderstorms also produced hail four inches in diameter at Perryton TX, wind gusts to 84 mph at Ellis KS, and high winds which caused nearly two million dollars damage at Sutherland NE. Thunderstorms deluged Sioux City IA with up to eight inches of rain, resulting in a record flood crest on Perry Creek and at least 4.5 million dollars damage. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 5 hours ago, MJO812 said: Cool and rainy here It is not cold...at all haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 41 minutes ago, MANDA said: Some nasty heat in FL last few days. Interesting HI stat from Miami. All very recent perhaps reflecting the increased moisture in the atmosphere of late. Don't know now anyone could tolerate FL in the Summer. Just not for me. High sun angle, high temperatures and stifling humidity Right. These dudes are all trolls.80/70 does not feel good no matter how you spin it 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 11 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and pleasant. Temperatures will likely top out in the lower and perhaps middle 70s. Afterward, a warm week lies ahead. Although significant early-season heat is likely through at least the first three weeks of May, temperatures could reach the 80s on several days. Through May 18th, New York City has had a spring mean temperature of 53.9°. That makes Spring 2024 the 4th warmest spring on record through May 18th. Only 1945 (54.1°), 2010 (55.1°) and 2012 (54.8°) were warmer. The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.3°C for the week centered around May 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.73°C. Neutral conditions are developing. The SOI was -1.67 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.223 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 64.0° (0.8° above normal). wow 2010 really rocked both spring and summer I want a weather modification device that just puts 2009-2011 on repeat forever. winter 2009-10, summer 2010, winter 2010-11 and summer 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 7 hours ago, SRRTA22 said: Right. These dudes are all trolls.80/70 does not feel good no matter how you spin it 100/50 is MUCH better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 8 hours ago, SACRUS said: Records: Highs: EWR: 94 (2017) NYC: 92 (2017) LGA: 97 (2017) JFK: 88 (1977) Lows: EWR: 43 (2003) NYC: 41 (1973) LGA: 44 (2002) JFK: 42 (2023) Historical: 1825 - A tornado (said to have crossed all of the state of Ohio) smashed into the log cabin settlement of Burlington, northeast of Columbus. (David Ludlum) 1883: The massive tornado outbreak on record in Illinois affected the northern and central parts of the state. At least 14 strong to violent tornadoes touched down killing 52 people. The largest death toll from a single tornado was 12, with 50 injuries, from an estimated F4 tornado which moved from near Jacksonville to 5 miles west of Petersburg. This tornado destroyed the town of Literberry. Another tornado, with an estimated F4 intensity, killed 11 people and injured 50 along its path from the south edge of Springfield northeast to near Kenney. This particular tornado reportedly drove 10 inches by 12-inch oak timbers 10 feet into the ground. Another estimated F4 tornado in far northern Illinois touched down near Capron and tracked for 17 miles before lifting in far southern Wisconsin. Lastly, an estimated F4 tornado tracked 20 miles through Kenosha and Racine Counties in Wisconsin. Eight people were killed, and 85 were injured. 1960 - Salt Lake City UT received an inch of snow. It marked their latest measurable snowfall of record. (The Weather Channel) 1980 - Mount Saint Helens (in Washington State) erupted spewing ash and smoke sixty-three thousand feet into the air. Heavy ash covered the ground to the immediate northwest, and small particles were carried to the Atlantic coast. (David Ludlum) 1987 - Thunderstorms in Kansas, developing along a cold front, spawned tornadoes at Emporia and Toledo, produced wind gusts to 65 mph at Fort Scott, and produced golf ball size hail in the Kansas City area. Unseasonably hot weather prevailed ahead of the cold front. Pomona NJ reported a record high of 93 degrees, and Altus, OK, hit 100 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Low pressure anchored over eastern Virginia kept showers and thunderstorms over the Middle Atlantic Coast Region. Flash flooding was reported in Pennsylvania. Up to five inches of rain drenched Franklin County PA in 24 hours. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced severe weather from the Central Gulf Coast States to the Lower Missouri Valley during the day and evening. Thunderstorms spawned sixteen tornadoes, and there were 74 reports of large hail and damaging winds. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the central U.S. spawning a sixteen tornadoes, including a dozen in Nebraska. Thunderstorms also produced hail four inches in diameter at Perryton TX, wind gusts to 84 mph at Ellis KS, and high winds which caused nearly two million dollars damage at Sutherland NE. Thunderstorms deluged Sioux City IA with up to eight inches of rain, resulting in a record flood crest on Perry Creek and at least 4.5 million dollars damage. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) wow it was 42 degrees here last year on this date? now thats cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 10 hours ago, psv88 said: It’s currently warmer on the southern coast of the Hudson Bay in northern Ontario than it is here. Please make it stop last year on this very date it was 42 degrees lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 Newark and other stations have had at least a T of rain on every weekend this spring so far. May 18-19…..0.04 May 11-12…0.38 May 4-5…..0.31 Apr 27-28…0.11 Apr 20-21…0.05 Apr 13-14…0.04 Apr 6-7…….T Mar 30-31…0.01 Mar 23-24….3.10 Mar 16-17…..T Mar 9-10….1.46 Mar 2-3…..1.31 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 64 out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 67 and partly sunny. Clouds - in/out today and much warmer low to mid 70s. Overall much warmer and drier week, peaking with mid 80s to perhaps low 90s in the warmer spots Tue (5/21) - Fri (5/23). Warmest days Wed - Thu. Next weekend GFS drier / ECM wetter for the Memorial Day holiday. Beyond there may tend back to onshore unsetteled to close the month and open next. We'll see if the signal wanes and ridging prevails. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 While it’s too early to do a rainfall or clouds potential forecast for Memorial Day, looks like we could see more onshore flow with high pressure anchored east of New England. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 The weather overall this upcoming week looks pretty good with exception of Thursday and maybe Wednesday afternoon in NW areas. Temps should range from the mid 70's to the upper 80's throughout the week. Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday look the warmest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 1 minute ago, Rtd208 said: The weather overall this upcoming week looks pretty good with exception of Thursday and maybe Wednesday afternoon in NW areas. Temps should range from the mid 70's to the upper 80's throughout the week. Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday look the warmest. I agree. We are pulling slowly out of the blocked up pattern of light rain, mist, drizzle, clouds and cool temperatures. Weather this coming week will be exponentially better than last week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 I think that if anything, temperatures will probably over perform this week Tues-Thurs especially Wednesday. WX/PT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 On 5/17/2024 at 4:12 PM, Allsnow said: I fear the east wind next week… I hope it’s not more of the same with a 80 degree day sprinkled in To me it still appears that winds will go SW which will allow us to get well up into the 80s. In fact I was probably being a little conservative 2 days ago when I said mid 80s. Now I think we'll be upper 80s to around 90 Tuesday through Thursday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 19 Author Share Posted May 19 18 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: I think that if anything, temperatures will probably over perform this week Tues-Thurs especially Wednesday. WX/PT I definitely expect to see a couple low 90s 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 9 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: I definitely expect to see a couple low 90s We hope 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 12 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said: We hope Is 4 months of 90s not enough? 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 29 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: I definitely expect to see a couple low 90s I'm not sure if these maps are the stuff low 90s are really made of in this pattern which has only slightly and temporarily changed. But I could see borderline heat in the 86-91 degree range across the region each day. And maybe Central Park just barely touches 90 one or two of the days. I could see that, especially Wednesday. WX/PT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 Up to 74 on a NE wind. More breaks in the clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 56 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Is 4 months of 90s not enough? no 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 8 minutes ago, forkyfork said: no Well then move to Miami. 115F HI 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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