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1 hour ago, Big Jims Videos said:

Putting together a story for tonight on if we get rain this weekend it will be the 12th consecutive one - going back to March 2nd. Absolutely miserable out there. 

Whoever enjoys this, I have to agree with Liberty Bell on this topic, is not normal. 

I would prefer this over being too warm, or unseasonably hot.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Recent winters have been overpowered by the record WPAC warm pool along the equator and east of Japan. So we get the repeating MJO 4-7 phases. This spring saw the +IOD reduce convection enough near the Maritime continent so we got the solid MJO 8 pattern. That lingering influence is what we have had since March 20th. The pattern could continue at least through the Memorial Day weekend according to the Euro. It’s showing a continuation of the deep -PNA trough and lingering trough over the Northeast. 
 

083B7215-55F7-41E7-99A5-FA9F24ABFEFB.thumb.png.f54c13c4909da2f0d6843c09aa333f01.png

why does a -pna trough cause warmer weather in the winter and colder weather in spring?

 

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Last May didn’t feel like it was that sunny due to the record amount of wildfire smoke. It peaked in early June. I will take this kind of pattern any day over that really poor air quality. 
 

 

Last April and May were fine Chris, we didn't get the wildfire smoke until June.

It might be time to start chopping down trees in Canada since more wildfires are now popping up there. There's really no other choice.

This year it's western Canada that's burning.

I'd much rather have sunny warm weather-- wildfires are a nuisance that can be taken care of by chopping down those trees.

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28 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Last April and May were fine Chris, we didn't get the wildfire smoke until June.

It might be time to start chopping down trees in Canada since more wildfires are now popping up there. There's really no other choice.

This year it's western Canada that's burning.

I'd much rather have sunny warm weather-- wildfires are a nuisance that can be taken care of by chopping down those trees.

We started getting smoke last May as you can see on the NWS post back on May 22nd and it peaked in early June. The big story since then has been how wet the pattern has been. Most of the warmer season months have been cooler and the colder season months warmer. This current global temperature spike put a record amount of water vapor into the atmosphere. 
 

NYC

May 2023…-0.5

Jun  2023...-2.0

Jul   2023…..+1.5

Aug 2023…-1.1

Sep 2023…+0.2

Oct  2023….+2.6

Nov  2023….-1.3

Dec  2023….+5.5

Jan  2024…..+3.3

Feb 2024…..+4.2

Mar 2024…..+5.3

Apr  2024…..+1.9

May  2024…..-0.4

 

 

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9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We started getting smoke last May as you can see on the NWS post back on May 22nd  and it peaked in early June. The big story since then has been how wet the pattern has been. Most of the warmer season months have been cooler and the colder season months warmer. This current global temperature spike put a record amount of water vapor into the atmosphere. 
 

NYC

May 2023…-0.5

Jun  2023...-2.0

Jul   2023…..+1.5

Aug 2023…-1.1

Sep 2023…+0.2

Oct  2023….+2.6

Nov  2023….-1.3

Dec  2023….+5.5

Jan  2024…..+3.3

Feb 2024…..+4.2

Mar 2024…..+5.3

Apr  2024…..+1.9

May  2024…..-0.4

 

 

and this is why we need to chop down the excessive growth in these forests where these fires are occurring.

The environment simply isn't there to support the overgrowth and that's why we see these fires.  We didn't get these kinds of fires in the 1990s when our springs and summers were much hotter and thats because there was no overgrowth from excessive rains.  Consider it population control for trees....

 

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

sunny and 70s is fine, no need for Ireland weather here

I enjoyed the 65 degrees and cloudy with a cool breeze during my run this afternoon (perfect running weather), but that's the only time I enjoy it. Otherwise 70s or 80s with sunshine is best this time of year. Obviously this will be over soon anyway. A few weeks from now these cool days will be a thing of the past. 

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5 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I enjoyed the 65 degrees and cloudy with a cool breeze during my run this afternoon (perfect running weather), but that's the only time I enjoy it. Otherwise 70s or 80s with sunshine is best this time of year. Obviously this will be over soon anyway. A few weeks from now these cool days will be a thing of the past. 

It's possible but you never know, we have had rainy cool summers before.

I envision a humid summer but not very hot maybe a 90 degree day a couple of times a month between June and September with around 10-15 90 degree days in total this year.  15 may be pushing it lol.

This is for NYC.

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15 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Memorial Day weekend looks ugly on the euro. Hopefully this isn’t correct  @bluewave thoughts? 

I just saw it. It’s generally a continuation of the pattern we have had all month with a -PNA trough out West and a trough over the East. If it’s still there in the forecast under 120 hrs out, then it will be something to watch. We haven’t had much luck with weekend weather this spring so far. 
 

8844F325-D563-4884-83EE-268507201149.thumb.png.50d9cf6385aef35c01998c5fc99efb69.png
E74E9726-6146-4592-B5BE-232448877DF6.thumb.png.b84bd13d3981964169ed3869786a442e.png


83791536-B107-40AB-A4A2-D32C00BFB750.gif.b53786cf2f2bc5768302838ffbbacc49.gif

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6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I just saw it. It’s generally a continuation of the pattern we have had all month with a -PNA trough out West and a trough over the East. If it’s still there in the forecast under 120 hrs out, then it will be something to watch. We haven’t had much luck with weekend weather this spring so far. 
 

8844F325-D563-4884-83EE-268507201149.thumb.png.50d9cf6385aef35c01998c5fc99efb69.png
E74E9726-6146-4592-B5BE-232448877DF6.thumb.png.b84bd13d3981964169ed3869786a442e.png


83791536-B107-40AB-A4A2-D32C00BFB750.gif.b53786cf2f2bc5768302838ffbbacc49.gif

Thanks. Hopefully a day or two of nice weather that weekend 

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25 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Thanks. Hopefully a day or two of nice weather that weekend 

Yeah, it seems like we have had many Memorial Day weekends in recent years with some measurable rain on at least one of the extended weekend days. Memorial Day weekend 2021 was ridiculous with those two consecutive low max records in the low 50s.The maxes on Christmas 2020 were +10° warmer than that was.

Newark Area, NJ
Period of record: 1931-01-01 through 2024-05-15DateLowest maximum temperatures (degrees F)Top Record 2nd Record 3rd Record
 

5/29 52 in 2021 60 in 1950 60 in 1940
5/30 53 in 2021 53 in 1953 59 in 2017


 

Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Date
Max Temperature 
2020-12-25 62
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22 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Thanks. Hopefully a day or two of nice weather that weekend 

I would gladly take 2 out of 3 nice days for the holiday weekend. 9 days away is an eternity when talking about weather, so who knows at this point. 

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

I just saw it. It’s generally a continuation of the pattern we have had all month with a -PNA trough out West and a trough over the East. If it’s still there in the forecast under 120 hrs out, then it will be something to watch. We haven’t had much luck with weekend weather this spring so far. 
 

8844F325-D563-4884-83EE-268507201149.thumb.png.50d9cf6385aef35c01998c5fc99efb69.png
E74E9726-6146-4592-B5BE-232448877DF6.thumb.png.b84bd13d3981964169ed3869786a442e.png


83791536-B107-40AB-A4A2-D32C00BFB750.gif.b53786cf2f2bc5768302838ffbbacc49.gif

How is it we're going to have such nice weather next week with zero rain and wall to wall sun and then the pattern will revert back to this just in time for the long weekend?

 

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1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

I would gladly take 2 out of 3 nice days for the holiday weekend. 9 days away is an eternity when talking about weather, so who knows at this point. 

 

Yeah just look at this weekend. 4 days out looked like a potential washout now we probably see nothing and Sunday onward looks great

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Partly to mostly cloudy conditions could persist through the weekend, although drier air could allow for an increase in sunshine during Sunday afternoon. A few showers are still possible during the weekend. Temperatures should reach the lower 70s across the region.

No significant early-season heat is likely through at least the first three weeks of May. However, it will likely turn warmer next week as sunshine returns.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.3°C for the week centered around May 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.73°C. Neutral conditions are now developing.

The SOI was -0.52 on May 13.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.507 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 58% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.5° (0.3° above normal).

 

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20 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I loved 1983 particularly for how hot that summer was, do you expect that again?

What kind of a September 1983 had WOW

2010 of course too, dry and hot!

 

I continue to suspect that we'll see a hot summer. More importantly, the guidance still suggests that a hot summer lies ahead. July through September could be the warmest relative to normal.

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

These over the top warm ups have become a familiar theme. 

98BD11C5-78A9-4375-9531-FA5E1FFC0DE6.thumb.png.198725f1d172836984cedda79fb308ab.png

 

Which will start more wildfires up there and the smoke will come south again with these troughs bringing northerly winds. Again like clockwork. 

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28 minutes ago, lee59 said:

A windy day today with numerous gusts in the 30s. With leaves on the trees it makes that wind even more pronounced.

all the seeds on the trees blew off making a mess everywhere

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Hot weather sucks

Cold weather sucks

50s and sheet drizzle sucks

75 and sunny is where it's at.  Maybe I should live in San Diego.   The problem with that is it gets boring pretty fast.  I love the variety in regards to weather conditions we get in this area. I hate these stuck patterns.  

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45 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Hot weather sucks

Cold weather sucks

50s and sheet drizzle sucks

75 and sunny is where it's at.  Maybe I should live in San Diego.   The problem with that is it gets boring pretty fast.  I love the variety in regards to weather conditions we get in this area. I hate these stuck patterns.  

By Wednesday we'll be bored by the sunny weather

Sunday

Partly sunny, with a high near 73.

Monday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 75.

Tuesday

Sunny, with a high near 77.

Wednesday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 78.

Thursday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 78.

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