uofmiami Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: JFK must be even cooler +0.3 for JFK to date 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 So much for the dry Wednesday and Thursday Euro over 2 inches for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 6 minutes ago, Allsnow said: So much for the dry Wednesday and Thursday Euro over 2 inches for the area probably over done but the idea is wetter for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 Good-rinse the pollen away. It’s awful. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 Showers here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 72 here. Nice day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 A system will bring showers and periods of rain tomorrow into Thursday. A general 0.25"-0.75" rainfall appears likely. Additional showers are possible during the weekend. Afterward, much of the week will likely see temperatures in the upper 60s and lower 70s. No significant early-season heat is likely through at least the first three weeks of May. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.3°C for the week centered around May 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.73°C. Neutral conditions are now developing. The SOI was +6.30 on May 13. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.595 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 53% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.5° (0.3° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 the euro is doing better with the current precip than the others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 8 hours ago, MJO812 said: What is there to do in Brooklyn ? Play with the squirrels? I'm sure there is plenty to do outside. Go for a walk... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: A system will bring showers and periods of rain tomorrow into Thursday. A general 0.25"-0.75" rainfall appears likely. Additional showers are possible during the weekend. Afterward, much of the week will likely see temperatures in the upper 60s and lower 70s. No significant early-season heat is likely through at least the first three weeks of May. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.3°C for the week centered around May 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.73°C. Neutral conditions are now developing. The SOI was +6.30 on May 13. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.595 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 53% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.5° (0.3° above normal). Don- This is first time in recent memory that the temperature sensitivity analysis has been lowering as the month is progressing. Usually it rises as we work through the month. Interesting to see if we finish the month slightly below normal. My guess is not from NYC on west. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 44 minutes ago, MANDA said: Don- This is first time in recent memory that the temperature sensitivity analysis has been lowering as the month is progressing. Usually it rises as we work through the month. Interesting to see if we finish the month slightly below normal. My guess is not from NYC on west. Time will tell. These days any months that don’t make the top 10 warmest feel cooler against the higher baseline we have gotten used to. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 From what I am observing on the maps it would appear that there could be at least a couple of days of early season borderline heat next week per the Euro Op, Euro AI, and the CMC. GFS is totally not on board for this. We are talking upper 80s to perhaps low 90s. Winds are w-sw. WX/PT 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 On 5/13/2024 at 3:58 AM, LibertyBell said: I'd expect a large rubber band effect in June with much warmer temperatures. Yeah, nice -PNA setting in on models which should warm us up by the last few days of May. There is a lot of general warmth in the N. Hemisphere on these models, which I have seen happen a few times after we have a cold pattern in the east. https://ibb.co/z2bzyDx Also, high global precipitable water (Sept 2023 - March 2024) supports a warmer globe for up to +12 months after, which could mean we are headed for a warmer Summer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 1 hour ago, bluewave said: These days any months that don’t make the top 10 warmest feel cooler against the higher baseline we have gotten used to. No one can tell the difference of a monthly temp departure of 2 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 oops 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 3 hours ago, MANDA said: Don- This is first time in recent memory that the temperature sensitivity analysis has been lowering as the month is progressing. Usually it rises as we work through the month. Interesting to see if we finish the month slightly below normal. My guess is not from NYC on west. Time will tell. It is an interesting development. Unless we have a cool end to the month, I think things still favor a warmer than normal May. Maybe we’re getting to about as cool as the models will show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 15 Author Share Posted May 15 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: The 00z GFS is also wetter with the highest precip. totals along the coast. It is also significantly wetter for the weekend but there is still alot of disagreement amongst the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 11 hours ago, FPizz said: No one can tell the difference of a monthly temp departure of 2 degrees. This month top 10 warmth at a station like Newark with a longer period of record starts at +2.9 like they got back in 2022. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of MayClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Departure 1 1991 68.9 0 2 2015 68.2 0 3 1965 67.3 0 4 1985 67.1 0 5 1993 67.0 0 6 2018 66.9 0 7 1986 66.6 0 8 2012 66.4 0 9 2004 66.3 0 10 2022 66.2 +2.9 - 2010 66.2 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 58 and showers here 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 .51" overnight...yay... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 The wild card for next weeks warm up will be how close to the coast the upper low gets. The Euro is the most optimistic and gets into a deeper SW flow and higher temperatures. The GFS and GEM hold into more onshore flow especially near the immediate coast and aren’t as warm. So the position of the upper low will determine the ceiling for high temperatures. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 23 minutes ago, bluewave said: The wild card for next weeks warm up will be how close to the coast the upper low gets. The Euro is the most optimistic and gets into a deeper SW flow and higher temperatures. The GFS and GEM hold into more onshore flow especially near the immediate coast and aren’t as warm. So the position of the upper low will determine the ceiling for high temperatures. As we get towards the end of May, even with an onshore flow the temps wouldn't be overly cool so at least we have that going for us. The frequent rain events though...I've had enough! Just an awful pattern this spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 59 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said: As we get towards the end of May, even with an onshore flow the temps wouldn't be overly cool so at least we have that going for us. The frequent rain events though...I've had enough! Just an awful pattern this spring. The record warm winter pattern lingered until around St.Patrick’s day giving us the warmest March 1-17th on record. Then the spring blocking pattern kicked in which has been a dominant feature in recent years. So the average high temperature ranking with all the clouds, rain, and onshore flow dropped down to 22nd place over this period. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Mar 1 to Mar 17 Missing Count 1 2024-03-17 51.1 0 2 1973-03-17 50.3 0 3 2016-03-17 49.0 0 4 2012-03-17 48.3 0 5 1977-03-17 48.1 0 6 2020-03-17 47.9 0 7 2000-03-17 47.8 0 8 1946-03-17 46.3 0 9 1990-03-17 46.0 0 10 2010-03-17 45.9 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Max Temperature Mar 18 to May 14 Missing Count 1 2010-05-14 67.8 0 2 1985-05-14 66.5 0 3 2023-05-14 66.3 0 4 2012-05-14 66.1 0 5 1945-05-14 65.9 0 6 2021-05-14 65.3 0 7 1994-05-14 65.2 0 8 1949-05-14 65.1 0 9 1976-05-14 65.0 0 10 1986-05-14 64.7 0 11 2006-05-14 64.2 0 - 1938-05-14 64.2 0 12 1993-05-14 64.0 0 13 1987-05-14 63.8 0 - 1968-05-14 63.8 0 14 1981-05-14 63.6 0 15 1991-05-14 63.5 0 16 1963-05-14 63.4 0 - 1957-05-14 63.4 0 17 2004-05-14 63.3 0 18 2001-05-14 63.2 0 - 1979-05-14 63.2 0 19 2000-05-14 63.1 0 - 1969-05-14 63.1 0 - 1946-05-14 63.1 0 20 2015-05-14 63.0 0 - 1999-05-14 63.0 0 - 1942-05-14 63.0 0 21 1959-05-14 62.9 0 22 2024-05-14 62.8 0 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 13 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Yeah, nice -PNA setting in on models which should warm us up by the last few days of May. There is a lot of general warmth in the N. Hemisphere on these models, which I have seen happen a few times after we have a cold pattern in the east. https://ibb.co/z2bzyDx Also, high global precipitable water (Sept 2023 - March 2024) supports a warmer globe for up to +12 months after, which could mean we are headed for a warmer Summer. we might be getting a huge solar flare by then too-- 13 days from now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 The last few rain events including today so far haven’t really amounted to much, lots of .01 type hour rates. Let’s see if that changes later, better rates to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 Miserable 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
etudiant Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 15 hours ago, MANDA said: Don- This is first time in recent memory that the temperature sensitivity analysis has been lowering as the month is progressing. Usually it rises as we work through the month. Interesting to see if we finish the month slightly below normal. My guess is not from NYC on west. Time will tell. Iirc, we had a similar situation a little over a year ago, possibly April, which had a cool spell that raised the odds on a below normal month. That did not happen because the last part of the month was warm enough to keep the AN trend intact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 It's not about the amount of rain for the last few weeks, it's that it's almost always wet because it rains just enough and just often enough. When everything leafed out I expected things to dry out more but regular refreshers zapped that idea. While it's not squishy anymore the soil moisture is definitely higher than most years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 This feels like the coolest spring we’ve had in a while. Sure, we’ve had a handful of 70s and 80s, but most of it has been 50s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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