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2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Good

 

2 hours ago, psv88 said:

I truly feel sorry for you. Must be miserable having no life and spending no time out doors. It’s no way to live. 

 

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

I don't need to be outside doing fun stuff. 

Anthony is newly married so he does have some justification. Stay well all, as always …..

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17 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

It popped to 70 here briefly when we had that sunnier period around 2pm, but now back down to 65 with mostly cloudy skies. 

I only got to 67 with that sun.  Now back to clouds again.  Had a little drizzle too 30 minutes ago.  

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The models are clearly struggling on when, where and how much rain will fall at any given time over the next several days. With that said temps looks to range anywhere from the mid to upper 60's to upper 70's thru early next week with no big heat on the horizon just yet.

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Tomorrow will be partly sunny and warm with widespread readings in the lower and middle 70s. Some showers are possible. A system will bring periods of rain on Wednesday into Thursday. A general 0.25"-0.75" rainfall appears likely.

Afterward, much of the week will likely see temperatures in the 70s. No significant early-season heat is likely through at least the first three weeks of May.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.3°C for the week centered around May 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.73°C. Neutral conditions are now developing.

The SOI was +6.30 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.268 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 58% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.8° (0.6° above normal).

 

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1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

And gfs is fairly dry too but has a weekend washout

qpf_048h-imp.us_ne (1).png

The trend over the last couple of weeks has been for the -NAO/blocky back door pattern to squash these south and/or dry them up from confluence coming from the NE. We’ll see if one of these can break the trend. 

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9 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The trend over the last couple of weeks has been for the -NAO/blocky back door pattern to squash these south and/or dry them up from confluence coming from the NE. We’ll see if one of these can break the trend. 

Yep kinda like what we were expecting with the February pattern change

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Being an HVAC technician I’m ok with the scattered heat it brings the No AC calls in at a moderate pace, you can save the 3 day 90-95 degree heat for mid June and hopefully we’ve gotten to many of our customers to avoid a rush. I'm an avid motorcyclist so I really don’t like rainy weekends but temps in the mid 50-60s is all good with me. 

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4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Tomorrow will be partly sunny and warm with widespread readings in the lower and middle 70s. Some showers are possible. A system will bring periods of rain on Wednesday into Thursday. A general 0.25"-0.75" rainfall appears likely.

Afterward, much of the week will likely see temperatures in the 70s. No significant early-season heat is likely through at least the first three weeks of May.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.3°C for the week centered around May 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.73°C. Neutral conditions are now developing.

The SOI was +6.30 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.268 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 58% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.8° (0.6° above normal).

 

Don, is tonight another night of northern lights activity? I saw it mentioned to expect a surge of activity around 3 AM....?

Looks like the sky conditions might be good at that time?

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17 hours ago, Eduardo said:

I think many of us (except for maybe @MJO812 ;)) are feeling pretty done with this pattern, Chris.  Do we break it in early June—as some stuck spring back door patterns have done in the past IIRC?

The last week of May since 2009 has given us some clues how many 90° days a warm spot like Newark usually gets. The last two Mays were a good example of this. Newark gets more 90° days when it reaches 90° than the years it stayed in the 80s. All the years with higher totals over 40 days at least reached 94° during the last week of May.
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Ending Date
Highest Max Temperature May 25 to May 31
Annual 90° days 
2023-05-31 80 29
2022-05-31 98 49
2021-05-31 94 41
2020-05-31 86 31
2019-05-31 90 27
2018-05-31 92 36
2017-05-31 80 22
2016-05-31 96 40
2015-05-31 91 35
2014-05-31 88 15
2013-05-31 94 25
2012-05-31 92 33
2011-05-31 92 31
2010-05-31 95 54
2009-05-31 84 14
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34 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

What is there to do in Brooklyn ? Play with the squirrels?

Good morning Anthony. Professionally for you, its often the two legged rodent variety. Stay safe, as always ……

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11 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Don, is tonight another night of northern lights activity? I saw it mentioned to expect a surge of activity around 3 AM....?

Looks like the sky conditions might be good at that time?

I don’t think so.

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1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Wait til Friday to figure that one out. The models suck

We are basically getting zero cosistency on the models with regard to where, when and how much rain will fall at any given time over the next several days. It's like they have reverted back to how they perform in the winter.:thumbsdown:

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15 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

We are basically getting zero cosistency on the models with regard to where, when and how much rain will fall at any given time over the next several days. It's like they have reverted back to how they perform in the winter.:thumbsdown:

Today's trend is wetter-especially tomorrow nite.

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