JetsPens87 Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: I don't need to be outside doing fun stuff. What a fun person you sound like 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Good 2 hours ago, psv88 said: I truly feel sorry for you. Must be miserable having no life and spending no time out doors. It’s no way to live. 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: I don't need to be outside doing fun stuff. Anthony is newly married so he does have some justification. Stay well all, as always ….. 1 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 5 minutes ago, rclab said: Anthony is newly married so he does have some justification. Stay well all, as always ….. He just sounds like an absolutely miserable recluse lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 2 hours ago, FPizz said: Sun finally popping out here, 63 It popped to 70 here briefly when we had that sunnier period around 2pm, but now back down to 65 with mostly cloudy skies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 17 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: It popped to 70 here briefly when we had that sunnier period around 2pm, but now back down to 65 with mostly cloudy skies. I only got to 67 with that sun. Now back to clouds again. Had a little drizzle too 30 minutes ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 The models are clearly struggling on when, where and how much rain will fall at any given time over the next several days. With that said temps looks to range anywhere from the mid to upper 60's to upper 70's thru early next week with no big heat on the horizon just yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: NAM coming in bone dry for Wednesday now and a good chunk of Thursday now... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 13 Author Share Posted May 13 37 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: At 0z it will have 1"+ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 Tomorrow will be partly sunny and warm with widespread readings in the lower and middle 70s. Some showers are possible. A system will bring periods of rain on Wednesday into Thursday. A general 0.25"-0.75" rainfall appears likely. Afterward, much of the week will likely see temperatures in the 70s. No significant early-season heat is likely through at least the first three weeks of May. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.3°C for the week centered around May 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.73°C. Neutral conditions are now developing. The SOI was +6.30 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.268 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 58% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.8° (0.6° above normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 13 Author Share Posted May 13 2 hours ago, Brian5671 said: And gfs is fairly dry too but has a weekend washout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: And gfs is fairly dry too but has a weekend washout The trend over the last couple of weeks has been for the -NAO/blocky back door pattern to squash these south and/or dry them up from confluence coming from the NE. We’ll see if one of these can break the trend. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 14 Author Share Posted May 14 9 minutes ago, jm1220 said: The trend over the last couple of weeks has been for the -NAO/blocky back door pattern to squash these south and/or dry them up from confluence coming from the NE. We’ll see if one of these can break the trend. Yep kinda like what we were expecting with the February pattern change 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave0176 Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 Being an HVAC technician I’m ok with the scattered heat it brings the No AC calls in at a moderate pace, you can save the 3 day 90-95 degree heat for mid June and hopefully we’ve gotten to many of our customers to avoid a rush. I'm an avid motorcyclist so I really don’t like rainy weekends but temps in the mid 50-60s is all good with me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 8 hours ago, JetsPens87 said: He just sounds like an absolutely miserable recluse lol what's nycwinter's excuse though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Tomorrow will be partly sunny and warm with widespread readings in the lower and middle 70s. Some showers are possible. A system will bring periods of rain on Wednesday into Thursday. A general 0.25"-0.75" rainfall appears likely. Afterward, much of the week will likely see temperatures in the 70s. No significant early-season heat is likely through at least the first three weeks of May. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.3°C for the week centered around May 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.73°C. Neutral conditions are now developing. The SOI was +6.30 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.268 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 58% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.8° (0.6° above normal). Don, is tonight another night of northern lights activity? I saw it mentioned to expect a surge of activity around 3 AM....? Looks like the sky conditions might be good at that time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 17 hours ago, Eduardo said: I think many of us (except for maybe @MJO812 ) are feeling pretty done with this pattern, Chris. Do we break it in early June—as some stuck spring back door patterns have done in the past IIRC? The last week of May since 2009 has given us some clues how many 90° days a warm spot like Newark usually gets. The last two Mays were a good example of this. Newark gets more 90° days when it reaches 90° than the years it stayed in the 80s. All the years with higher totals over 40 days at least reached 94° during the last week of May. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Highest Max Temperature May 25 to May 31 Annual 90° days 2023-05-31 80 29 2022-05-31 98 49 2021-05-31 94 41 2020-05-31 86 31 2019-05-31 90 27 2018-05-31 92 36 2017-05-31 80 22 2016-05-31 96 40 2015-05-31 91 35 2014-05-31 88 15 2013-05-31 94 25 2012-05-31 92 33 2011-05-31 92 31 2010-05-31 95 54 2009-05-31 84 14 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 18 hours ago, JetsPens87 said: What a fun person you sound like What is there to do in Brooklyn ? Play with the squirrels? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 A beaut of a day today. Models still all over the place with the rains...some have close to nothing some have moderate amts but also timing is different with some Wed and some Thur 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 34 minutes ago, MJO812 said: What is there to do in Brooklyn ? Play with the squirrels? Good morning Anthony. Professionally for you, its often the two legged rodent variety. Stay safe, as always …… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 How’s it looking in the Catskills this weekend. Between pratsville and Stamford? Specifically Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 14 Author Share Posted May 14 1 minute ago, WestBabylonWeather said: How it looking in the Catskills this weekend. Between pratsville and Stamford? Specifically Saturday Wait til Friday to figure that one out. The models suck 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 14 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Wait til Friday to figure that one out. The models suck NAM is back to being wet, but 3K Nam has very little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 11 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Don, is tonight another night of northern lights activity? I saw it mentioned to expect a surge of activity around 3 AM....? Looks like the sky conditions might be good at that time? I don’t think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: I don’t think so. The sky conditions were pristine but nothing was happening.... it's rare we get a sky as clear as we had last night. https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/3-day-forecast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 Strong onshore flow pattern this month with the only positive departures west of NYC. EWR….+1.0 NYC…..-0.3 LGA…….-1.2 ISP……..-0.7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: Wait til Friday to figure that one out. The models suck We are basically getting zero cosistency on the models with regard to where, when and how much rain will fall at any given time over the next several days. It's like they have reverted back to how they perform in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 15 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: We are basically getting zero cosistency on the models with regard to where, when and how much rain will fall at any given time over the next several days. It's like they have reverted back to how they perform in the winter. Today's trend is wetter-especially tomorrow nite. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 A much better day temp wise today. Current temp is 75 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 Euro 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Strong onshore flow pattern this month with the only positive departures west of NYC. EWR….+1.0 NYC…..-0.3 LGA…….-1.2 ISP……..-0.7 JFK must be even cooler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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