MJO812 Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 14 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Warmer on Christmas this year then on Mother’s Day? Probably It's a tradition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 The amount of blocking showing up on the ensembles for the rest of the month could prevent the warm spots like Newark from reaching 90°. It looks like the warmer days should generally make it into the low 80s. This will be different than the pattern since 2010. The last two times Newark reached 90° during the first week of May like this year were in 2018 and 2010. Both those years had follow up 90s during the last week of May. We have to go back to 2000 and 2001 for 90° during the first week of May without 90s during the last week of May. May 1-7 max Newark 2024…90° May 1-7 max Newark 2018…94°…May 25-31 max 92° May 1-7 max Newark 2010…90°…May 25-31 max 95° 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 13 Author Share Posted May 13 Euro has the bulk of the rain on Thursday. Nam is Wednesday.. gfs is Tuesday 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 up to a currently cloudy 52. Low level clouds burn off by mid/late morning, setting up the best day of the week low 70s, bright sunshine. Overall cooler/near normal with a day or two (sunny) with rain chances but no signal for heavier totals currently5/13 - 5/22. Watch the Wed-Thu period for potential heavier rain totals. Warm but cloudier on Tue perhaps to 80 with enough sun early. With rain / showers later Tue - Thu - SE/E flow not as cool as Mothers day / last Friday. Fri, pending on the clearing could get into the 70s near 80 before the what looks like another mainly cloudy and with rain chances this coming weekend 5/18- 5/19. Beyond there more of the same into net week 5/20. When will the persistent onshore pattern shift to a less unsettled and warmer one - in time to close the month beyond 5/23rd is the time to watch guidance in the next few days. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 Records: Highs: EWR: 92 (1956) NYC: 89 (1956) LGA: 89 (1956) LGA: 82 (2004) Lows: EWR 37 (1938) NYC: 39 (1895) LGA: 42 (2019) JFK: 41 (2020) HIstorical: 1930 - A man was killed when caught in an open field during a hailstorm northwest of Lubbock TX. It was the first, and perhaps the only, authentic death by hail in U.S. weather records. (David Ludlum) 1980: An F3 tornado ripped directly through the center of Kalamazoo, Michigan, killing five people, injuring 79, leaving 1,200 homeless and causing $50 million in damage. The tornado passed directly over the American Bank, where a barograph reported a pressure drop of 0.59 inches. 1981 - A tornado 450 yards in width destroyed ninety percent of Emberson TX. People did not see a tornado, but rather a wall of debris. Homes were leveled, a man in a bathtub was hurled a quarter of a mile, and a 1500 pound recreational vehicle was hurled 500 yards. Miraculously no deaths occurred in the tornado. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - A cold front brought an end to the early season warm spell in the north central U.S., but not before the temperature at Sioux City IA soared to a record warm 95 degrees. Strong southwesterly winds ahead of the cold front gusted to 52 mph at Marais MI. Evening thunderstorms produced golf ball size hail at Rockford MN, and wind gusts to 75 mph at Belmond IA. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Strong winds along a cold front ushering cold air into the northwestern U.S. gusted to 69 mph at Myton UT. Temperatures warmed into the 80s ahead of the cold front, as far north as Montana. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Thunderstorms developing along a warm front produced severe weather in the Southern Plains Region during the afternoon and night. A thunderstorm at Killeen TX produced wind gusts to 95 mph damaging 200 helicopters at Fort Hood causing nearly 500 million dollars damage. Another thunderstorm produced softball size hail at Hodges TX. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front spawned ten tornadoes from eastern Wyoming to northern Kansas, including seven in western Nebraska. Thunderstorms forming ahead of a cold front in the eastern U.S. spawned five tornadoes from northeastern North Carolina to southern Pennsylvania. Thunderstorms over southeast Louisiana deluged the New Orleans area with four to eight inches of rain between 7 AM and Noon. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1995: This outbreak produced tornadoes extending from the Mississippi River near Burlington, Iowa, to the west of Bloomington, Illinois. Two violent tornadoes, each ranked at F4 intensity, were reported. The first tornado traveled 60 miles from near Fort Madison, Iowa, to the southeast of Galesburg, Illinois producing over $10 million damage. The town of Raritan, Illinois was hit the hardest. The second violent tornado traveled 7 miles across Fulton County from Ipava to Lewistown, Illinois producing $6 million damage. Another strong tornado took a 25-mile path across parts of Fulton, Mason, and Tazewell Counties. The storms also produced softball-size hail south and northwest of Macomb in Illinois. Five men were injured in Lawrence County, Indiana when lightning struck one of them and traveled to the other four. There were 184 reports of severe weather, including over three dozen tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: Euro has the bulk of the rain on Thursday. Nam is Wednesday.. gfs is Tuesday Trend has been to slow it down. Toss the faster GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 Chilly 40 this morning. Glad the next few weeks look like crap! 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 13 Author Share Posted May 13 18 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Trend has been to slow it down. Toss the faster GFS Yeah nam is pretty dry til Wednesday afternoon now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 Canadian forest fires are underway. Smoke affecting the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes. Air quality alerts are posted over parts of MN and WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 3 minutes ago, MANDA said: Canadian forest fires are underway. Smoke affecting the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes. Air quality alerts are posted over parts of MN and WI. Like clockwork. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 28 minutes ago, psv88 said: Chilly 40 this morning. Glad the next few weeks look like crap! heat kicked on here this AM LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 GFS has nothing for Wed while the NAM and RGEM are fairly wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 Clouds clinging and stubborn to clear out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 20 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Clouds clinging and stubborn to clear out Gotta get used to lots of clouds unfortunately. With all the clouds and easterly flow expected over the next couple weeks, it appears we actually have a shot at having a month that doesn't end up with above normal temps for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 13 Author Share Posted May 13 15 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Gotta get used to lots of clouds unfortunately. With all the clouds and easterly flow expected over the next couple weeks, it appears we actually have a shot at having a month that doesn't end up with above normal temps for a change. Still supposed to make it to 72 today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 20 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Still supposed to make it to 72 today Yeah I was hoping for a nice day today, but lousy so far. It does appear that more sun will come out later in the afternoon, so hopefully we can see late day highs in the low 70s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 65 and mostly sunny here with a light breeze great day too bad it's a Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 2 hours ago, psv88 said: Chilly 40 this morning. Glad the next few weeks look like crap! Good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Good I truly feel sorry for you. Must be miserable having no life and spending no time out doors. It’s no way to live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 3 minutes ago, psv88 said: I truly feel sorry for you. Must be miserable having no life and spending no time out doors. It’s no way to live. I don't need to be outside doing fun stuff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 26 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Yeah I was hoping for a nice day today, but lousy so far. It does appear that more sun will come out later in the afternoon, so hopefully we can see late day highs in the low 70s. Sun finally popping out here, 63 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poker2015 Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 Sucks for Wednesday. I'm supposed to be at the Somerset Patriots game for my 3rd graders class trip. They can't make up an 11am game like that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 Picked up 0.42" of rain for the day yesterday. Current temp 62 Much cooler then expected so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 69 now, been sunny most of the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 2 hours ago, Brian5671 said: GFS has nothing for Wed while the NAM and RGEM are fairly wet The back door pattern is so entrenched that we have confluence and dry air coming in from the NE which eats up the rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 36 minutes ago, Poker2015 said: Sucks for Wednesday. I'm supposed to be at the Somerset Patriots game for my 3rd graders class trip. They can't make up an 11am game like that. Darn that stinks. Those are fun trips Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: The back door pattern is so entrenched that we have confluence and dry air coming in from the NE which eats up the rain. Been the story of the month here-while we've had some rain it's grossly underperformed model output Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 Euro has a new solution-holds it off til Thursday but then rains off and on through Sat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Been the story of the month here-while we've had some rain it's grossly underperformed model output I mean it’s not the worst in the world-Sat and a good chunk of yesterday turned out nice but the drying came from the NE. The rain struggled like anything making it east from the city into the dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 6 hours ago, bluewave said: The amount of blocking showing up on the ensembles for the rest of the month could prevent the warm spots like Newark from reaching 90°. It looks like the warmer days should generally make it into the low 80s. This will be different than the pattern since 2010. The last two times Newark reached 90° during the first week of May like this year were in 2018 and 2010. Both those years had follow up 90s during the last week of May. We have to go back to 2000 and 2001 for 90° during the first week of May without 90s during the last week of May. May 1-7 max Newark 2024…90° May 1-7 max Newark 2018…94°…May 25-31 max 92° May 1-7 max Newark 2010…90°…May 25-31 max 95° I think many of us (except for maybe @MJO812 ) are feeling pretty done with this pattern, Chris. Do we break it in early June—as some stuck spring back door patterns have done in the past IIRC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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