Cfa Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 Clouds breaking up here in Riverhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 3 hours ago, LibertyBell said: It's interesting that you mentioned wind pollinators.... Bayer's research claims that we have an excess of "male" trees and that's the result of bad city planning. More of the same here: https://nypost.com/2023/04/19/too-many-male-trees-making-spring-allergy-season-hell-in-nyc/ When it comes to allergies, men are the “root” of the problem! An excess of obnoxious, pollen-spewing male trees are wreaking havoc on New Yorkers’ sinuses — worsening what experts predict will be a hellish spring allergy season this year. In a trend dubbed “botanical sexism,” urban planners planted more male trees in the Big Apple because they’re generally easier to maintain than females, which litter sidewalks with seeds and fruit, experts told The Post. “But males are actually much more prolific producers of pollen. It’s an aggravating factor for allergies,” said Dr. Sebastian Lighvani, of the Allergy Experts practice on the Upper East Side. “The concept of allergies wasn’t on the radar of planners when they planted so many males. So we’re stuck with a preponderance of them,” he said. Pollen from dioecious trees such as maples linger in the air longer and fail to fully absorb due to the city’s lack of leafy ladies, according to doctors and horticulturists. As the inconsiderate males spread their seed, it creates an itchy, sneezy nightmare for New Yorkers. https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/08/health/allergy-season-early-pollen-wellness-climate/index.html But these aren’t isolated trends. As the planet warms, researchers say allergy season is starting earlier and lasting longer. And a study from the journal Nature published last year found that pollen count is projected to increase by 200% by the end of the century if planet-warming pollution continues to rise. Climate Central, a nonprofit focused on climate news and research, recently analyzed how warmer temperatures have affected allergy season in 203 US cities since 1970. It found that on average, the growing season – the period between the last freeze in spring to the first freeze of fall – is lasting 16 days longer in the Southeast, 15 days longer in the Northeast and 14 days longer in the South. In the West, growing season is 27 days longer on average, Climate Central reported. Reno, Nevada, for example, has seen a shocking increase of 99 days. And a longer growing season means a longer allergy season. Mold allergens on the rise Plant pollen isn’t the only trigger of seasonal allergies. Mold, a type of fungi that reproduces with tiny airborne spores, can also be allergenic for some people and can exacerbate seasonal allergies, according to the report. While outdoor mold is not as well-studied as pollen, according to the report, one thing is clear: Warmer and wetter weather – conditions that many locations are seeing more of amid the climate crisis – is favorable for mold development. Allergy season will start much earlier than normal and be far more intense because of climate crisis, study suggests “With climate change, we’re seeing increases in warming in all seasons, but particularly the fastest warming season for most locations across the US is the winter season,” Casey said. “So now we’re dealing with mold at a time of year that we typically wouldn’t.” Casey also pointed out that the climate crisis is making extreme precipitation more likely, which provides that crucial dampness for mold to grow. The report highlights the link between allergens and thunderstorms, which researchers say spread pollen and mold spores through the air more efficiently. “The problem with pollen grains is that when they get wet, they rupture, and they break into tinier bits called sub-pollen particles,” Casey said. “Those tinier bits are more easily dispersed by the wind when they dry out, and they have an easier time getting into your nasal passages.” If dementia is delayed in me I will have to give most of the credit to the weather forum. Thank you Liberty and many other members whom by their posts have sent me on searches, so I can attempt to understand what the hades they are talking about. My latest adventure was tree sexuality. (Please no woodpecker or knothole replies). I was introduced to the terms Monoecious and Dioecious. It was fascinating to find out that my ever bearing oak, from the beginning till the acorn hits the ground, (or me) is Monoecious. If you have a cotton wood or red/silver maples, they are Dioecious. (Male tree or female tree). Damned if I know how you’d tell the difference when it’s a sapling. Below are photos of my all in one oak and my what ever it is maple. Thank you Liberty and others because it is thought provoking posts that will keep me thinking/searching, so that in the days/months/years ahead I can still find my own way home. Stay well all, as always …. 3 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 17 minutes ago, Cfa said: Clouds breaking up here in Riverhead. the sun has started to come out here why is clearing coming from the east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 Because it wants to confuse you 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 1 hour ago, nycwinter said: have the heat on... The heat broke down here. Think of the chances of the heat going down and needing it in the middle of May with it warm up north in Canada. Nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 25 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: the sun has started to come out here why is clearing coming from the east? Not sure, sky was clear to the north for hours and then the clouds started moving south out of the area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 4 minutes ago, Cfa said: Not sure, sky was clear to the north for hours and then the clouds started moving south out of the area. This is good for Northern Lights. Tonight should be the last of the good aurora shows from this solar storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 Sunny and 60 now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 Beautiful day 55 and sunny Do people really hate this weather ? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 34 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Beautiful day 55 and sunny Do people really hate this weather ? It’s fine on Christmas but not in the middle of May. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: This is good for Northern Lights. Tonight should be the last of the good aurora shows from this solar storm. I sure hope we see something tonight. I need something after the total eclipse miss. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Beautiful day 55 and sunny Do people really hate this weather ? It's not a matter of hating the weather, it's a matter of hating the timing of it. November this would be understandable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uniblab Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 3 hours ago, rclab said: If dementia is delayed in me I will have to give most of the credit to the weather forum. Thank you Liberty and many other members whom by their posts have sent me on searches, so I can attempt to understand what the hades they are talking about. My latest adventure was tree sexuality. (Please no woodpecker or knothole replies). I was introduced to the terms Monoecious and Dioecious. It was fascinating to find out that my ever bearing oak, from the beginning till the acorn hits the ground, (or me) is Monoecious. If you have a cotton wood or red/silver maples, they are Dioecious. (Male tree or female tree). Damned if I know how you’d tell the difference when it’s a sapling. Below are photos of my all in one oak and my what ever it is maple. Thank you Liberty and others because it is thought provoking posts that will keep me thinking/searching, so that in the days/months/years ahead I can still find my own way home. Stay well all, as always …. Geez, I miss Brooklyn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 12 Author Share Posted May 12 9 out of 12 days have had at least a trace but so far barely an inch of rain for the month (at least at ewr) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 3 hours ago, psv88 said: Yea. The rough part has been seeing southern Canada warmer than us day after day due to the flow off the Atlantic. I have a few Canadian cities on my weather app and there have only been sparingly few days this Spring where they were warmer. It was much more frequent last year with many over the op Highs that really warmed up Montreal and Ottawa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 9 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: 9 out of 12 days have had at least a trace but so far barely an inch of rain for the month (at least at ewr) Best rain has been in our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 my philosophy is try and have cool days into june cause when the heat comes it is here to stay until mid to late september.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 1 hour ago, Uniblab said: Geez, I miss Brooklyn. A tree still grows here, any way it can. Stay well and please come back anytime. As always … Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 Clouds and rain finally gave way to sunshine in New York City making for a nice late afternoon and early evening. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 4 hours ago, Cfa said: It’s fine on Christmas but not in the middle of May. It's not fine on Christmas 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 2 hours ago, Uniblab said: Geez, I miss Brooklyn. No you don't 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 Tomorrow will be partly to mostly sunny and milder with the temperature returning to the upper 60s across much of the area. Afterward, much of the week will likely see temperatures in the 70s. No significant early-season heat is likely through at least the first three weeks of May. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around May 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.85°C. The ongoing basinwide El Niño event is fading. Neutral conditions could develop later in the spring. The SOI was -10.63 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.120 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 56% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.8° (0.6° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 5 hours ago, Cfa said: I sure hope we see something tonight. I need something after the total eclipse miss. where did you go to see the total eclipse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: Tomorrow will be partly to mostly sunny and milder with the temperature returning to the upper 60s across much of the area. Afterward, much of the week will likely see temperatures in the 70s. No significant early-season heat is likely through at least the first three weeks of May. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around May 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.85°C. The ongoing basinwide El Niño event is fading. Neutral conditions could develop later in the spring. The SOI was -10.63 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.120 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 56% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.8° (0.6° above normal). if the AO is positive Don why has May been so chilly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: if the AO is positive Don why has May been so chilly? It just turned positive in recent days. Wave lengths are also shorter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 40 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: It just turned positive in recent days. Wave lengths are also shorter. I'm surprised you aren't mentioning La Nina. It's developing pretty quickly, with < -4c anomalies in the subsurface, and a -2c pool surfacing in Nino 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 7 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I'm surprised you aren't mentioning La Nina. It's developing pretty quickly, with < -4c anomalies in the subsurface, and a -2c pool surfacing in Nino 3. It’s developing but I doubt that it has altered atmospheric patterns this early in its evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: It’s developing but I doubt that it has altered atmospheric patterns this early in its evolution. 18z GEFS has a pretty strong -PNA pattern starting around May 17th. Hard to say that it will sustain, but sometimes when it starts and we are cooler on the EC, the later part of the -PNA pattern is above average to way above average.. something to look for if it sustains into June. I've done some research linking ENSO subsurface with the N. Pacific pattern at 0-time, but in the age of weather derivatives it's harder to say if that is the reason for the correlation (my opinion). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: 18z GEFS has a pretty strong -PNA pattern starting around May 17th. Hard to say that it will sustain, but sometimes when it starts and we are cooler on the EC, the later part of the -PNA pattern is above average to way above average.. something to look for if it sustains into June. I've done some research linking ENSO subsurface with the N. Pacific pattern at 0-time, but in the age of weather derivatives it's harder to say if that is the reason for the correlation (my opinion). I'd expect a large rubber band effect in June with much warmer temperatures. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 11 hours ago, MJO812 said: It's not fine on Christmas Warmer on Christmas this year then on Mother’s Day? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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