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I'm noticing almost kind of a jump on the maps from April into May. We seem to be quickly jumping into a much warmer possibly eventually hot summer pattern. Temperatures were modeled to be in the mid-upper 60s here for today and we're going to top out somewhere between 78-83. There is a southeast wind but it's very light and the temperatures have warmed quickly up until now with no clouds. By a week from now we could be at least flirting with 90. Both GFS and CMC show this. Bermuda HP trying to take shape as the nw Atlantic upper low gradually loses its grip.

WX/PTgfs_z500_mslp_us_32.png

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7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

whats causing this cold pool? I thought the waters were much warmer than normal everywhere?

 

Upwelling from the easterly flow between the high to the north and 50/50 low which was displaced further south than usual. The spring has been one of our more reliable seasons for -NAO blocking. Almost like a rebound following the more +NAO winters.
 

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45B8DC0D-D4E7-4AA5-B6BE-3982608D56E2.png.e61b31894a72d094a06c5f17b8d17987.png

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It hit 82 here. Beautiful weather! Perfect weather for planting the warm weather vegetables. Today I planted pole lima beans. Tomorrow I will plant tomatoes, peppers, eggplant and zucchini. I think tomorrow will be another overperformer .... probably upper 80s here. 

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Records:

Highs:

EWR: 88 (2010)
NYC: 87 (2001)
LGA: 85 (2001)
JFK: 81 (2001)


Lows:

EWR: 36 (1978)
NYC: 37 (1903)
LGA: 38 (1978)
JFK: 38 (2008)

Historical:

 

1854 - The Connecticut River reached a level of nearly twenty-nine feet at Hartford (the highest level of record up until that time). The record height was reached in the midst of a great New England flood which followed sixty-six hours of steady rain. (David Ludlum)

 

1857: The Washington Evening Star publishes the first US national weather summary using observations from volunteers to the Smithsonian Institution's cooperative network.

 

1933: An estimated F4 tornado struck Minden, Louisiana, killing 28 people and injuring 400 others. 500 homes were damaged or destroyed with $1.3 million in damage. 

1935 - Snow, ice and sleet brought winter back to parts of southeast Minnesota. Minneapolis received three inches of snow to tie their May record which was established in 1892. (1st-2nd) (The Weather Channel)

1954 - The temperature at Polebridge MT dipped to 5 degrees below zero to esablish a state record for the month of May. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Thunderstorms produced large hail and heavy rain in Texas. Baseball size hail pounded Dublin, and 3.75 inches of rain soaked Brady. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Strong southerly winds ahead of a cold front crossing the Rocky Mountain Region gusted to 90 mph at Lamar CO. High winds created blinding dust storms in eastern Colorado, closing roads around Limon. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Thunderstorms produced heavy rain in the southeastern U.S. Rainfall totals of 1.84 inches at Charlotte NC and 2.86 inches at Atlanta GA were records for the date. Strong thunderstorm winds uprooted trees in Twiggs County GA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from northern Alabama to North Carolina. There were sixty-three reports of large hail or damaging winds, with hail four inches in diameter reported near Cartersville GA. Ten cities in the southeastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date as readings warmed into the 90s. Jacksonville FL reported a record high of 96 degrees. Late night thunderstorms over central Texas produced up to ten inches of rain in southern Kimble County and northern Edwards County. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1999: Record, low temperatures for the date, were broken in the Deep South. Mobile, Alabama dropped to 46 degrees.  Miami fell to 58; Miami Beach bottomed out at 61, and Vero Beach dropped to 47 degrees, all new records. Other stations in Florida also set record cold maximums for the date, including 61 at Jacksonville and Daytona Beach with 66 degrees. 

 

 

2003: A record-setting 516 tornadoes occurred during May 2003. In particular, during the period May 4-10, 2003, an unprecedented number of tornadoes, 393 total, affected the central and the southern United States. The tornadoes resulted in 39 deaths across four states. Six of these tornadoes were classified as violent (F4) on the Fujita Tornado Intensity Scale.

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Tomorrow will bring a taste of June with readings rising into the 80s across the region. Hot spots could approach or reach 90°.

Overall, the first week of May should wind up warmer than normal, even as there will be considerable variability in the daily temperatures.

Showers and periods of rain could arrive during the weekend. Sunday into Monday could be the wettest period.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around April 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C. The ongoing basinwide El Niño event is fading. Neutral conditions could develop later in the spring.

The SOI was +6.53 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.981 today.

 

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16 hours ago, bluewave said:

Upwelling from the easterly flow between the high to the north and 50/50 low which was displaced further south than usual. The spring has been one of our more reliable seasons for -NAO blocking. Almost like a rebound following the more +NAO winters.
 

CE2A9E07-5988-4F7F-9CF0-57E4FD1DCD3A.gif.35a1bc476d9fb0672f6f5611903c2eaa.gif
 

79EB0D25-A139-4638-A9E2-4C753F84C31C.png.029e4d5da351047cb6b4be1d655f0898.png
 

45B8DC0D-D4E7-4AA5-B6BE-3982608D56E2.png.e61b31894a72d094a06c5f17b8d17987.png

Don't onshore winds tend to push milder surface ocean temps closer to the coast? 

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55 minutes ago, dWave said:

Don't onshore winds tend to push milder surface ocean temps closer to the coast? 

Yes, weaker onshore flow along the immediate coastal beaches around the NY Bight can warm the SSTs at the beaches like we can see during the summer.  But when you get further offshore this time of year persistent stronger easterly flow with clouds cools the SSTs. The record SSTs east of Newfoundland last summer were the result of sunny skies, high pressure, and light winds. 

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59 minutes ago, dWave said:

Don't onshore winds tend to push milder surface ocean temps closer to the coast? 

Yup, and the opposite for offshore winds. I remember we had a stretch of a couple weeks in the middle of summer with a west wind. Water temps dropped down into the mid 50s when typically it should be around 72-74. The water was so clear, it was like the Carribean

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21 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Euro has rain chances from Sunday through next week 

Yeah, still no extended 80° warm ups showing up just yet. We have been consistently getting a day or two of 80° plus from Newark east to here in Southern New England followed by backdoors. Looks like the Euro and GFS shift us back to a wetter pattern. 
 

 

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31 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Stuck in the muck this morning and 53, 40s out east. Nasty stuff 

When the clouds break, we’ll take off. Models kept it cloudy the last 2 days so they were too cold. Watch this be the day the clouds hang on. 

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9 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Per satellite visible satellite loop low clouds eroding west to east pretty quickly.  Should warm up nicely once the sun breaks out.

Agreed, temps will shoot up the second the sun comes out. This time of year working on the uws and living on the south shore of Long Island, the temp differences are extreme. Yesterday left work in shorts and Tshirt and was freezing when I got home. 

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17 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Per satellite visible satellite loop low clouds eroding west to east pretty quickly.  Should warm up nicely once the sun breaks out.

Yeah won't be a problem climbing rapidly. Sun is poking out now

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26 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Per satellite visible satellite loop low clouds eroding west to east pretty quickly.  Should warm up nicely once the sun breaks out.

Sun out here now and the muck is gone

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