May 2024

[Stormlover74]

35 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

One of the 10 BEST days.  I didn't waste my time trying to see the aurora last night.  Between possible cloud cover and living in what used to be suburban NJ, there wasn't much of a chance...

It's only low 60s but out in the sun feels much warmer 

[Intensewind002]

I swear, I go on twitter and it seems like everywhere in the country except around here had clear skies with all these perfect pictures. I stayed up until about 3 AM waiting for the clouds to clear but saw nada lol. From what I’ve read you were really only able to see it through long exposure pics so I guess i didn’t miss much.

 

Looks like tonight is going to be less intense so only rural areas will be able to see it without clouds.

[LibertyBell]

38 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said:

I swear, I go on twitter and it seems like everywhere in the country except around here had clear skies with all these perfect pictures. I stayed up until about 3 AM waiting for the clouds to clear but saw nada lol. From what I’ve read you were really only able to see it through long exposure pics so I guess i didn’t miss much.

 

Looks like tonight is going to be less intense so only rural areas will be able to see it without clouds.

That was the wrong way to go about it, you should have gone to sleep and then wake up at 3 AM.  

Tonight we'll have more clouds later on so there's less of a chance.  I'm hoping they'll still be around Sunday night when the skies will be completely clear.

 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

That was the wrong way to go about it, you should have gone to sleep and then wake up at 3 AM.  

Tonight we'll have more clouds later on so there's less of a chance.  I'm hoping they'll still be around Sunday night when the skies will be completely clear.

 

For now, the forecast calls for G3 geomagnetic activity at Monday 6z:

[JetsPens87]

3 hours ago, FPizz said:

I did see it last night around 315.  To the naked eye it was faint, but my phone cam captured it pretty good.  I was excited 

Nice I went out around 330 and still didn't see anything here. Bummer. And of course increasing clouds tonight.

[Allsnow]

6 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

I got 1.03" here. It was a good soaking, but as you said it was a miserable day with the cold weather. 

Yup. Miserable day that mostly stayed in the 40’s. Looks like our area is in for the most rain tomorrow and Wednesday again 

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be mainly cloudy with some scattered showers and somewhat cooler readings. Highs should reach the upper 50s in the New York City area and upper 50s and lower 60s in the Philadelphia area. Much of next week will likely see temperatures in the 70s with no significant early-season heat likely.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around May 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.85°C. The ongoing basinwide El Niño event is fading. Neutral conditions could develop later in the spring.

The SOI was -10.25 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.545 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 55% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.8° (0.6° above normal).

 

[psv88]

61 today. Overall not bad for outdoor activities 

[SACRUS]

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 93 (1993) it was off to the races and never looked back till late Sep that year
NYC: 92 (1993)
LGA: 96 (1953)
JFK: 85 (1993)


Lows:

 

EWR: 36 (1966)
NYC: 36 (1913) 
LGA:  42 (1945)
JFK: 40 (1966)


Historical:

 

1865: A tornado touched down in Philadelphia around 6 PM ET, killing one person and injuring 15 others. There was a considerable destruction of property, with 23 houses blown down, damage to the Reading Railroad depot, with the water tank, carried 150 yards. Fairmont Park was damaged to the amount of $20,000. 

 

1934: A tremendous dust storm affected the Plains as the Dust Bowl era was in full swing. According to The New York Times, dust "lodged itself in the eyes and throats of weeping and coughing New Yorkers," and even ships some 300 miles offshore sawdust collect on their decks.

1953 - A tornado hit Waco, TX, killing 114 persons and burying some downtown streets under five feet of fallen bricks. (The Weather Channel)

1966 - The 1.6 inch snow at Chicago, IL, was their latest measurable snow of record. Previously the record was 3.7 inches on the 1st and 2nd of May set in 1940. (The Weather Channel)

1970 - A very powerful tornado struck the city of Lubbock, TX, killing 26 persons, injuring more than 500 others, and causing 135 million dollars damage. It was the most destructive tornado of record up until that time, and came on the 17th anniversary of the twister which struck Waco TX killing 114 persons. A second tornado killed two others persons in Lubbock, and the two tornadoes damaged or destroyed nearly a quarter of the city. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Early morning thunderstorms produced up to four inches of rain in southern Texas, with flooding reported from Maverick County to Eagle Pass. Evening thunderstorms in northern Illinois produced golf ball size hail and wind gusts to 70 mph. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Unseasonably warm weather prevailed in the southwestern U.S. Reno, NV, reported a record high of 89 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in the High Plains Region. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 71 mph at Gillette WY, and baseball size hail was reported at Pecos TX and Fort Stockton TX. Fort Stockton TX was deluged with 7.75 inches of rain in less than two hours. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Unseasonably cold weather followed in the wake of a spring storm in the north central U.S. Seven cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Madison WI with a reading of 29 degrees. Thunderstorms produced severe weather in Kansas, Oklahoma and the northern half of Texas. Severe thunderstorms spawned four tornadoes in Texas, and produced high winds which overturned four mobile homes northwest of Abilene TX injuring ten persons. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2005 - Strong thunderstorms affected parts of the U.S. Great Plains. In the Hastings, Nebraska area, significant severe weather occurred, including very large hail, damaging winds and widespread flooding. Radar estimated rainfall accumulation locally exceeded 10 inches.

 

 

[donsutherland1]

Updated geomagnetic activity forecast:

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 May 12 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 9 (NOAA Scale
G5).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 12-May 14 2024 is 9.00 (NOAA Scale
G5).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 12-May 14 2024

             May 12       May 13       May 14
00-03UT       7.67 (G4)    6.00 (G2)    4.67 (G1)
03-06UT       7.67 (G4)    6.67 (G3)    4.33     
06-09UT       8.00 (G4)    6.67 (G3)    3.00     
09-12UT       9.00 (G5)    5.67 (G2)    3.00     
12-15UT       8.67 (G4)    4.67 (G1)    2.67     
15-18UT       8.00 (G4)    3.67         2.67     
18-21UT       7.00 (G3)    3.67         3.00     
21-00UT       7.00 (G3)    4.00         3.33     

 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

This is really starting to get extremely annoying.

WX/PT

[Snowlover11]

1 hour ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

This is really starting to get extremely annoying.

WX/PT

wash, rinse, repeat.

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

For now, the forecast calls for G3 geomagnetic activity at Monday 6z:

This is pretty good!

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

This is really starting to get extremely annoying.

WX/PT

Like I said, there's too much water on this planet, time to siphon some of it off to somewhere else.

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Updated geomagnetic activity forecast:

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 May 12 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 9 (NOAA Scale
G5).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 12-May 14 2024 is 9.00 (NOAA Scale
G5).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 12-May 14 2024

             May 12       May 13       May 14
00-03UT       7.67 (G4)    6.00 (G2)    4.67 (G1)
03-06UT       7.67 (G4)    6.67 (G3)    4.33     
06-09UT       8.00 (G4)    6.67 (G3)    3.00     
09-12UT       9.00 (G5)    5.67 (G2)    3.00     
12-15UT       8.67 (G4)    4.67 (G1)    2.67     
15-18UT       8.00 (G4)    3.67         2.67     
18-21UT       7.00 (G3)    3.67         3.00     
21-00UT       7.00 (G3)    4.00         3.33     

 

Wow thanks Don, so it was G5 again from 5 AM to 8 AM this morning.... too bad it was cloudy lol

I took pictures around 1 AM which corresponds to 05 UT or 7.67 G4 which is pretty good too.

So for tonight G3 conditions will be from 11 PM to 5 AM tomorrow morning.

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 93 (1993) it was off to the races and never looked back till late Sep that year
NYC: 92 (1993)
LGA: 96 (1953)
JFK: 85 (1993)


Lows:

 

EWR: 36 (1966)
NYC: 36 (1913) 
LGA:  42 (1945)
JFK: 40 (1966)


Historical:

 

1865: A tornado touched down in Philadelphia around 6 PM ET, killing one person and injuring 15 others. There was a considerable destruction of property, with 23 houses blown down, damage to the Reading Railroad depot, with the water tank, carried 150 yards. Fairmont Park was damaged to the amount of $20,000. 

 

1934: A tremendous dust storm affected the Plains as the Dust Bowl era was in full swing. According to The New York Times, dust "lodged itself in the eyes and throats of weeping and coughing New Yorkers," and even ships some 300 miles offshore sawdust collect on their decks.

1953 - A tornado hit Waco, TX, killing 114 persons and burying some downtown streets under five feet of fallen bricks. (The Weather Channel)

1966 - The 1.6 inch snow at Chicago, IL, was their latest measurable snow of record. Previously the record was 3.7 inches on the 1st and 2nd of May set in 1940. (The Weather Channel)

1970 - A very powerful tornado struck the city of Lubbock, TX, killing 26 persons, injuring more than 500 others, and causing 135 million dollars damage. It was the most destructive tornado of record up until that time, and came on the 17th anniversary of the twister which struck Waco TX killing 114 persons. A second tornado killed two others persons in Lubbock, and the two tornadoes damaged or destroyed nearly a quarter of the city. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Early morning thunderstorms produced up to four inches of rain in southern Texas, with flooding reported from Maverick County to Eagle Pass. Evening thunderstorms in northern Illinois produced golf ball size hail and wind gusts to 70 mph. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Unseasonably warm weather prevailed in the southwestern U.S. Reno, NV, reported a record high of 89 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in the High Plains Region. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 71 mph at Gillette WY, and baseball size hail was reported at Pecos TX and Fort Stockton TX. Fort Stockton TX was deluged with 7.75 inches of rain in less than two hours. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Unseasonably cold weather followed in the wake of a spring storm in the north central U.S. Seven cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Madison WI with a reading of 29 degrees. Thunderstorms produced severe weather in Kansas, Oklahoma and the northern half of Texas. Severe thunderstorms spawned four tornadoes in Texas, and produced high winds which overturned four mobile homes northwest of Abilene TX injuring ten persons. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2005 - Strong thunderstorms affected parts of the U.S. Great Plains. In the Hastings, Nebraska area, significant severe weather occurred, including very large hail, damaging winds and widespread flooding. Radar estimated rainfall accumulation locally exceeded 10 inches.

 

 

Absolutely amazing-- so today was the day the heat began in the historic summer of 1993!

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

For now, the forecast calls for G3 geomagnetic activity at Monday 6z:

Did the forecast change, Don? You posted a new one with a 6 hour window of G3.

[LibertyBell]

19 hours ago, MANDA said:

Two day event total was .58".  Daytime temperatures yesterday never got out of the m/u 40's.  Everything nice and green and rain is keeping the pollen at bay so there is that.

Actually it doesn't.... the more it rains the worse our pollen season gets.  We need to desiccate the crap that causes allergies to the point it can't pollinate anymore.  The horrible increase in rainfall over the last 20 years has made the allergy season much much worse than it was in the 80s and 90s and all the way to 2002.  I noticed my allergies were MUCH less last year when we had a very dry and much warmer spring.

At this point, we should be spraying herbicides to kill the crap outright. I've already started spraying, but it's not enough, everyone has to do it.

 

[LibertyBell]

14 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

For now, the forecast calls for G3 geomagnetic activity at Monday 6z:

Don, where can I find these forecasts?  The nice thing is they are applicable globally so from these we know when to look for aurora pictures on social media lol.

Also, do you happen to know of a site that forecasts daily sunspot number as well as the size of the sunspots? We had a huge sunspot last week and I'm wondering if it will still be around to photograph tomorrow afternoon.

Thanks!

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

31 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Actually it doesn't.... the more it rains the worse our pollen season gets.  We need to desiccate the crap that causes allergies to the point it can't pollinate anymore.  The horrible increase in rainfall over the last 20 years has made the allergy season much much worse than it was in the 80s and 90s and all the way to 2002.  I noticed my allergies were MUCH less last year when we had a very dry and much warmer spring.

At this point, we should be spraying herbicides to kill the crap outright. I've already started spraying, but it's not enough, everyone has to do it.

 

I’m baffled how you could possibly claim to care about the environment yet you want to drain the oceans and kill all plants.

your an ideal candidate for a mars colonist 

 

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I’m baffled how you could possibly claim to care about the environment yet you want to drain the oceans and kill all plants.

your an ideal candidate for a mars colonist 

 

Not drain, just reduce the amount of water to match the climate we had before before sea level rise and ice melt and the excess precipitation...,. it's all about balance :-)

My ideal climate is what we had between 1983-2002.

And only kill the ones that cause the allergens, the ones we plant do not cause those.  I spray to get rid of weeds weekly starting in April.  With our warmer climate these pests are all too prevalent.

[nycwinter]

another beautiful almost early december feel in the city...

[MJO812]

13 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

another beautiful almost early december feel in the city...

49 here

[Allsnow]

Brutal. 48 degrees on Mothers Day Morning with moderate rain. Where is the heat and humidity? 

[Rtd208]

13 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Brutal. 48 degrees on Mothers Day Morning with moderate rain. Where is the heat and humidity? 

Yeah seriously. I was hoping we to turn the corner by the 20th but not sure that is going to happen now. 

[JustinRP37]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Not drain, just reduce the amount of water to match the climate we had before before sea level rise and ice melt and the excess precipitation...,. it's all about balance :-)

My ideal climate is what we had between 1983-2002.

And only kill the ones that cause the allergens, the ones we plant do not cause those.  I spray to get rid of weeds weekly starting in April.  With our warmer climate these pests are all too prevalent.

You do realize people have different allergies right? Are we supposed to eliminate all the trees? Fruit trees cause allergies, pine trees cause allergies, cat dander cause allergies, mold spores, grass, etc. also the big increase in allergies is more so a product of us using non-native trees and plants. This is huge in cities where we bring in “urban specialist” trees that can survive in the harsher environments. 
 

Siphoning off water to space wouldn’t decrease precipitation. The issue is heat not the amount of water. The oceans have far more heat content in them than in the recent past which increases global humidity and this precipitation. Siphoning off water won’t change that. 

[bluewave]

31 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Brutal. 48 degrees on Mothers Day Morning with moderate rain. Where is the heat and humidity? 

Yeah, the EPS forecast 500 mb pattern through day 15 doesn’t look like it will produce any 90°heat around NYC the area. The warmest days with these teleconnections would probably be upper 70s to low 80s with numerous days cooler than that. So it looks like the strongest warmth this month will turn out to have been frontloaded unless we start seeing warmer changes near the end of the month in later runs. The higher latitude ridging and blocking appears to keep the Southeast ridge on hiatus for a while.

 

 

 

[gravitylover]

All in all, I'm ok with not having to run the AC. 70s is good

[Allsnow]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the EPS forecast 500 mb pattern through day 15 doesn’t look like it will produce any 90°heat around NYC the area. The warmest days with these teleconnections would probably be upper 70s to low 80s with numerous days cooler than that. So it looks like the strongest warmth this month will turn out to have been frontloaded unless we start seeing warmer changes near the end of the month in later runs. The higher latitude ridging and blocking appears to keep the Southeast ridge on hiatus for a while.

 

 

 

Where was that h5 setup in January? Haha 

I just hope for a nice Memorial Day Weekend this year. Nothing worst then when it rains on parades and picnics