the_other_guy Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 Flying just south of it now. Ugly stuff in Oklahoma. Tops well into 40s. Even into 50s now. Massive to look at 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 7 Author Share Posted May 7 3 Tornado warnings in SD and MN outside the watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 This was the big OK storm from 34,000 feet this evening 12 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 While El Niño to La Niña transition summers usually have a high number of 90° days, all the added moisture may push back against that influence. Many transition summers have featured at least 40 days reaching 90° at Newark. So anything under that would probably need plenty of rain and clouds. It could also make exceeding a high end summer like 2010 with 50 days reaching 90° difficult to achieve. 33 days has been the average for Newark since 2010. The 51-80 average used to be 23 days. El Niño to La Niña transition summers bolded Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through DecClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2010 54 0 2 2022 49 0 - 1993 49 0 3 1988 43 0 4 2021 41 0 - 2002 41 0 - 1991 41 0 5 2016 40 0 - 1983 40 0 - 1959 40 0 6 1994 39 0 - 1944 39 0 7 2005 37 0 - 1987 37 0 8 2018 36 0 - 1949 36 0 9 2015 35 0 10 1961 34 0 11 2012 33 0 - 1999 33 0 - 1995 33 0 - 1966 33 0 Monthly Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Season Mean 0 2 5 15 8 3 0 33 2023 2 1 1 14 5 6 0 29 2022 0 4 6 20 18 1 0 49 2021 0 4 12 11 13 1 0 41 2020 0 0 5 17 9 0 0 31 2019 0 1 4 14 4 3 1 27 2018 0 4 5 9 14 4 0 36 2017 0 3 5 9 2 3 0 22 2016 0 3 3 16 13 5 0 40 2015 0 2 4 11 13 5 0 35 2014 0 0 2 8 2 3 0 15 2013 0 2 4 15 3 1 0 25 2012 0 2 6 16 7 2 0 33 2011 0 1 4 22 4 0 0 31 2010 1 2 13 21 11 6 0 54 Monthly Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Season Mean 0 1 5 9 6 2 0 23 1951 0 1 3 9 5 0 0 18 1952 0 0 8 17 2 4 0 31 1953 0 1 9 10 9 3 0 32 1954 0 0 5 10 3 0 0 18 1955 0 1 5 17 9 0 0 32 1956 0 2 6 1 5 0 0 14 1957 0 2 6 12 4 4 0 28 1958 0 0 2 11 6 2 0 21 1959 0 5 5 8 15 6 1 40 1960 1 0 3 2 8 1 0 15 1961 0 0 4 13 8 9 0 34 1962 1 2 6 3 2 0 0 14 1963 0 0 6 11 3 0 0 20 1964 0 3 6 9 5 3 0 26 1965 0 4 9 7 5 1 0 26 1966 0 0 10 14 8 1 0 33 1967 0 0 5 1 1 0 0 7 1968 0 0 4 9 9 1 0 23 1969 0 1 3 4 6 1 0 15 1970 0 2 2 5 8 5 0 22 1971 0 0 6 7 7 2 0 22 1972 0 0 0 16 4 1 0 21 1973 0 0 5 9 12 5 0 31 1974 1 2 2 10 3 0 0 18 1975 0 1 3 3 5 0 0 12 1976 2 0 7 2 4 0 0 15 1977 1 3 1 14 6 1 0 26 1978 0 1 3 8 4 0 0 16 1979 0 2 1 8 9 0 0 20 1980 0 1 3 8 12 3 0 27 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 Any prospect of this -NAO breaking down? Obviously we are not experiencing a Spring 2010 with similar ENSO transition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 1 hour ago, bluewave said: While El Niño to La Niña transition summers usually have a high number of 90° days, all the added moisture may push back against that influence. Many transition summers have featured at least 40 days reaching 90° at Newark. So anything under that would probably need plenty of rain and clouds. It could also make exceeding a high end summer like 2010 with 50 days reaching 90° difficult to achieve. 33 days has been the average for Newark since 2010. The 51-80 average used to be 23 days. El Niño to La Niña transition summers bolded Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through DecClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2010 54 0 2 2022 49 0 - 1993 49 0 3 1988 43 0 4 2021 41 0 - 2002 41 0 - 1991 41 0 5 2016 40 0 - 1983 40 0 - 1959 40 0 6 1994 39 0 - 1944 39 0 7 2005 37 0 - 1987 37 0 8 2018 36 0 - 1949 36 0 9 2015 35 0 10 1961 34 0 11 2012 33 0 - 1999 33 0 - 1995 33 0 - 1966 33 0 Monthly Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Season Mean 0 2 5 15 8 3 0 33 2023 2 1 1 14 5 6 0 29 2022 0 4 6 20 18 1 0 49 2021 0 4 12 11 13 1 0 41 2020 0 0 5 17 9 0 0 31 2019 0 1 4 14 4 3 1 27 2018 0 4 5 9 14 4 0 36 2017 0 3 5 9 2 3 0 22 2016 0 3 3 16 13 5 0 40 2015 0 2 4 11 13 5 0 35 2014 0 0 2 8 2 3 0 15 2013 0 2 4 15 3 1 0 25 2012 0 2 6 16 7 2 0 33 2011 0 1 4 22 4 0 0 31 2010 1 2 13 21 11 6 0 54 Monthly Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Season Mean 0 1 5 9 6 2 0 23 1951 0 1 3 9 5 0 0 18 1952 0 0 8 17 2 4 0 31 1953 0 1 9 10 9 3 0 32 1954 0 0 5 10 3 0 0 18 1955 0 1 5 17 9 0 0 32 1956 0 2 6 1 5 0 0 14 1957 0 2 6 12 4 4 0 28 1958 0 0 2 11 6 2 0 21 1959 0 5 5 8 15 6 1 40 1960 1 0 3 2 8 1 0 15 1961 0 0 4 13 8 9 0 34 1962 1 2 6 3 2 0 0 14 1963 0 0 6 11 3 0 0 20 1964 0 3 6 9 5 3 0 26 1965 0 4 9 7 5 1 0 26 1966 0 0 10 14 8 1 0 33 1967 0 0 5 1 1 0 0 7 1968 0 0 4 9 9 1 0 23 1969 0 1 3 4 6 1 0 15 1970 0 2 2 5 8 5 0 22 1971 0 0 6 7 7 2 0 22 1972 0 0 0 16 4 1 0 21 1973 0 0 5 9 12 5 0 31 1974 1 2 2 10 3 0 0 18 1975 0 1 3 3 5 0 0 12 1976 2 0 7 2 4 0 0 15 1977 1 3 1 14 6 1 0 26 1978 0 1 3 8 4 0 0 16 1979 0 2 1 8 9 0 0 20 1980 0 1 3 8 12 3 0 27 This is the first thing we need to learn to control, the amount of moisture in our atmosphere. H2O is a much more powerful greenhouse gas than CO2 so we should be looking for ways to dry out the air and vent that moisture into space. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 11 minutes ago, bkviking said: Any prospect of this -NAO breaking down? Obviously we are not experiencing a Spring 2010 with similar ENSO transition. I wonder why -NAO are much more likely in Spring in a solar maximum year rather than in winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I wonder why -NAO are much more likely in Spring in a solar maximum year rather than in winter? Might be that the MJO phases that this perma-Nina keeps us stuck in help generate this -NAO in April. And I know it’s not officially a Nina and we’re coming out of a strong Nino officially, but the boiling WPAC effectively keeps us in a Nina state. The E PAC gets the headlines when calling an El Niño or La Niña but as we can see the W PAC state is just as/more important and that hasn’t left strong Nina with -PDO in 5 years now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 Horrible drone footage coming out of Oklahoma this morning. Especially Barnsdall, OK. Looks like solid EF3 damage and maybe EF4. Concrete slabs left where houses used to be. Steel beams twisted like plastic straws. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 6 minutes ago, MANDA said: Horrible drone footage coming out of Oklahoma this morning. Especially Barnsdall, OK. Looks like solid EF3 damage and maybe EF4. Concrete slabs left where houses used to be. Steel beams twisted like plastic straws. It makes me wonder why anyone would ever want to live in that part of the country. I have zero interest in severe weather and never want to see anything like this happen. We live in a good place for getting very little severe weather and no tornadoes that are stronger than EF2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 Couple of low 80s popping up north of JFK over into central Nassau north of the seabreeze. 73 here-a beaut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 77 here. Picture perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: It makes me wonder why anyone would ever want to live in that part of the country. I have zero interest in severe weather and never want to see anything like this happen. We live in a good place for getting very little severe weather and no tornadoes that are stronger than EF2. Tell that to the folks in Mullica Hill, NJ. My aunt and cousin moved to Wichita suburbs last year because "we needed a change." And I doubt you have no interest in severe weather on a weather forum lol. We all do. It's human nature. Do we want to see it happen to us? No. But we are interested in it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 3 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said: Tell that to the folks in Mullica Hill, NJ. My aunt and cousin moved to Wichita suburbs last year because "we needed a change." And I doubt you have no interest in severe weather on a weather forum lol. We all do. It's human nature. Do we want to see it happen to us? No. But we are interested in it. South Jersey Alley’s been well documented here lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 Sea breeze so far is pinned around Sunrise Highway. We roast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 6 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said: Tell that to the folks in Mullica Hill, NJ. My aunt and cousin moved to Wichita suburbs last year because "we needed a change." And I doubt you have no interest in severe weather on a weather forum lol. We all do. It's human nature. Do we want to see it happen to us? No. But we are interested in it. It makes me cringe to see all those homes destroyed. It's best when it happens out in the middle of empty land, then we can admire it from a distance. I don't like lightning either-- it has destroyed expensive electronics for me in the past. I love all other types of weather, extreme heat, extreme cold, extreme precip totals (rain or snow or ice) and hurricanes too-- because by the time they get up here they are at most Cat 1. If I lived in Florida I wouldn't be a fan of hurricanes either. F1 tornadoes are okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: Sea breeze so far is pinned around Sunrise Highway. We roast. It got close to 80 here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 2 hours ago, jm1220 said: Couple of low 80s popping up north of JFK over into central Nassau north of the seabreeze. 73 here-a beaut. High of (edit) 79 here about 5 miles east of JFK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 42 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said: Tell that to the folks in Mullica Hill, NJ. My aunt and cousin moved to Wichita suburbs last year because "we needed a change." And I doubt you have no interest in severe weather on a weather forum lol. We all do. It's human nature. Do we want to see it happen to us? No. But we are interested in it. It’s like if a Cat 4 hurricane is making a beeline at the city. My emotions would be on the fence between intense fear and sheer excitement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 it's boring outside 1 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 Beautiful 77 and clear skies. Perfect May Day 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 79 here now, it's really nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 35 minutes ago, Yanksfan said: It’s like if a Cat 4 hurricane is making a beeline at the city. My emotions would be on the fence between intense fear and sheer excitement. Thats why I said I would cap all hurricanes to Cat 1 and all tornadoes to EF1, up to then it's fun and rare.... anything past 1.... no thank you, Florida can handle it a lot better than we can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 thank goodness it will turn cooler starting thursday wearing a hoodie and jacket in these temps is uncomfortable.. 1 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 Really nice day out there. Current temp 83 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 Could be some locally heavy downpours with the elevated convection tomorrow morning due to the very high PWATS for this time of year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 Models seem to be showing only the morning activity now-looks mainly dry rest of day tomorrow now. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 So far 79 here for the high. Seabreeze is moving north of the LIE now so it’s now or never for 80. Edit-and wouldn’t ya know it, 80 lol. Compressional heating FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now