bluewave Posted May 28 Share Posted May 28 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: The Rockies ridge is becoming more common in the summer than winter these days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 28 Share Posted May 28 Showers and thundershowers are possible tomorrow. Afterward, Thursday and Friday will see highs mainly in the lower 70s. Readings could return to the upper 70s and lower 80s during the weekend. The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around May 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C. Neutral conditions are imminent. The SOI was +11.20 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.411 today. On May 26 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.691 (RMM). The May 25-adjusted amplitude was 1.584 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 65.3° (2.1° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 28 Share Posted May 28 8 hours ago, MANDA said: Hi Don- Any idea what the longest stretch is for CPK of above normal months? I would agree with you that is is hard to envision any of the next 3 months finishing below normal. I'm not sure. The climate baseline changes, so there may be differences depending which baseline is utilized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 28 Share Posted May 28 Two photos of this morning's fog: 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted May 29 Share Posted May 29 watching the sunset from my high rise apartment as this dry breeze rolls through, post-workout, post-shower. drinking cold milk from the jug. this is the only time i’ve ever been happy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted May 29 Share Posted May 29 1 hour ago, Will - Rutgers said: watching the sunset from my high rise apartment as this dry breeze rolls through, post-workout, post-shower. drinking cold milk from the jug. this is the only time i’ve ever been happy Will you may have just given away your true identity. As always, … 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted May 29 Share Posted May 29 5 hours ago, bluewave said: The Rockies ridge is becoming more common in the summer than winter these days. That started a long time ago.. back in the early 2000s, every Summer had a Rockies-based ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 29 Share Posted May 29 Highs: ACY: 85 EWR: 84 PHL: 84 BLM: 83 JFK: 82 LGA: 82 TEB: 81 New Brnswck: 81 ISP: 81 TTN: 80 NYC: 79 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 29 Share Posted May 29 82 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 29 Share Posted May 29 64 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 29 Share Posted May 29 Only the 4th time that Newark hasn’t gone over 90° in the spring since 2010. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Mar through MayClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 98 0 2 2021 96 0 - 2016 96 0 3 2010 95 0 4 2018 94 0 - 2017 94 0 - 2013 94 0 5 2023 93 0 6 2012 92 0 - 2011 92 0 7 2015 91 0 8 2024 90 3 - 2019 90 0 9 2014 88 0 10 2020 86 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 29 Share Posted May 29 i'm really liking the pva and cold aloft for storms this evening 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 29 Share Posted May 29 70 / 55, sunny. Upper 70s / low 80s before clouds/storms (currently in WV/WPA) arrive later this afternoon and into the evening. Clear out and cools off Thu and part of Fri before warming back to the 80s by this weekend. Period Jun 4 - 8/9th continues to look warmer and offers next / first shot at 90s for many spots. Beyond there GFS/Euro differ with Euro trough into the East and GFS warmer look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 29 Share Posted May 29 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Only the 4th time that Newark hasn’t gone over 90° in the spring since 2010. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Mar through MayClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 98 0 2 2021 96 0 - 2016 96 0 3 2010 95 0 4 2018 94 0 - 2017 94 0 - 2013 94 0 5 2023 93 0 6 2012 92 0 - 2011 92 0 7 2015 91 0 8 2024 90 3 - 2019 90 0 9 2014 88 0 10 2020 86 0 Interesting and Yet this May will still be on warmer side of the period top5 (+3.2 currently and ending +2.4 to 2.8) 2015: +4.9 2018: +3.6 2012: +3.1 2010: +2.9 2022: +2.9 2011: +2.3 2021: +1.1 2014: +0.8 2023: +0.2 2019: +0.2 2013: +0.01 2016: -0.8 2017: -2.2 2020: -2.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 29 Share Posted May 29 Euro keeping with seasonal tendencies this year vs the gfs/cm ens a bit warmer 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted May 29 Share Posted May 29 15 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Euro keeping with seasonal tendencies this year vs the gfs/cm ens a bit warmer Are those maps operational models from 168-240? If so, I’d discard and use ensembles at that time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 29 Share Posted May 29 18 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Interesting and Yet this May will still be on warmer side of the period top5 (+3.2 currently and ending +2.4 to 2.8) 2015: +4.9 2018: +3.6 2012: +3.1 2010: +2.9 2022: +2.9 2011: +2.3 2021: +1.1 2014: +0.8 2023: +0.2 2019: +0.2 2013: +0.01 2016: -0.8 2017: -2.2 2020: -2.4 The warm departure this month is mostly a function of the warmer minimums rather than the maximums. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of MayClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2012 58.4 0 2 1991 58.3 0 3 2018 57.6 0 - 1985 57.6 0 4 2024 57.4 3 - 2011 57.4 0 5 2022 57.3 0 - 2015 57.3 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of MayClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1991 79.5 0 2 2015 79.2 0 3 1965 77.8 0 4 1986 77.5 0 5 1993 77.2 0 6 1985 76.5 0 - 1944 76.5 0 7 2010 76.4 0 8 2018 76.2 0 - 1959 76.2 0 9 1977 76.1 0 - 1964 76.1 0 10 2004 76.0 0 11 2007 75.7 0 12 1980 75.4 0 - 1955 75.4 0 13 2022 75.2 0 - 1936 75.2 0 14 2024 74.9 3 - 1994 74.9 0 - 1941 74.9 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 29 Share Posted May 29 6 hours ago, bluewave said: The warm departure this month is mostly a function of the warmer minimums rather than the maximums. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of MayClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2012 58.4 0 2 1991 58.3 0 3 2018 57.6 0 - 1985 57.6 0 4 2024 57.4 3 - 2011 57.4 0 5 2022 57.3 0 - 2015 57.3 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of MayClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1991 79.5 0 2 2015 79.2 0 3 1965 77.8 0 4 1986 77.5 0 5 1993 77.2 0 6 1985 76.5 0 - 1944 76.5 0 7 2010 76.4 0 8 2018 76.2 0 - 1959 76.2 0 9 1977 76.1 0 - 1964 76.1 0 10 2004 76.0 0 11 2007 75.7 0 12 1980 75.4 0 - 1955 75.4 0 13 2022 75.2 0 - 1936 75.2 0 14 2024 74.9 3 - 1994 74.9 0 - 1941 74.9 0 lowest highs this month 5/4: 62 5/5: 54 5/10: 57 5/11: 64 5/12: 56 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 29 Share Posted May 29 Records: Highs: EWR: 97 (1987) NYC: 97 (1969) LGA: 95 (1987) JFK: 99 (1969) Lows: EWR: 40 (1936) NYC: 43 (1902) LGA: 48 (2021) JFK: 46 (1949) Historical: 1947: An unprecedented late-spring snowstorm blasts portions of the Midwest from eastern Wyoming to eastern Upper Michigan. The heavy snow caused severe damage to power and telephone lines and the already-leafed-out vegetation. 1951 - A massive hailstorm, from Wallace to Kearney County in Kansas, caused six million dollars damage to crops. (David Ludlum) 1953 - A tornado, 600 yards wide at times, killed two persons on its 20 mile path from southwest of Fort Rice ND into Emmons County. Nearly every building in Fort Rice was damaged. The Catholic church was leveled, with some pews jammed four feet into the ground. (The Weather Channel) 1982: Two significant tornadoes ripped through southern Illinois. The most severe was an F4 that touched down northeast of Carbondale, Illinois then moved to Marion. The twister had multiple vortices within the main funnel. Extensive damage occurred at the Marion Airport. A total of 10 people were killed, and 181 were injured. 648 homes and 200 cars were damaged or destroyed, with total damages around $100 million. 1986: Hailstones over 3 inches in diameter pounded South Shore in Montreal, Quebec Canada causing over $65 million in damage. 1987 - Thunderstorms in West Texas produced softball size hail at Lamesa, and hail up to twelve inches deep east of Dimmitt. Thunderstorms also spawned seven tornadoes in West Texas, including one which injured three persons at Wolfforth. Thunderstorms deluged the Texas Hill Country with up to eleven inches of rain. Severe flooding along the Medino, Hondo, Seco, Sabinal and Frio rivers caused more than fifty million dollars damage. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - A powerful cold front brought snow and high winds to parts of the western U.S. Austin, NV, was blanketed with ten inches of snow, and winds gusted to 75 mph at the Mojave Airport in California. Strong southerly winds and unseasonably warm weather prevailed in the north central U.S. Glasgow, MT, equalled their record for the month of May with a high of 102 degrees. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Wintry weather gripped parts of the northwestern U.S. for the second day in a row. Great Falls, MT, was blanketed with 12 inches of snow, which pushed their total for the winter season to a record 117.4 inches. Six inches of snow whitened the Cascade Mountains of Oregon. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather from north central Colorado to the northern half of Texas. Severe thunderstorms spawned four tornadoes, and there were seventy reports of large hail or damaging winds. Midday thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 90 mph at Hobart, OK, and produced up to three and a half inches of rain in eastern Colorado in four hours. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted May 29 Share Posted May 29 beautiful summer day for late may... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 29 Author Share Posted May 29 Decent activity moving into western nj 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 29 Share Posted May 29 Showers and possible thundershowers are possible tonight into the early morning. Afterward, tomorrow and Friday will see highs mainly in the lower 70s. Readings could return to the upper 70s and lower 80s during the weekend. The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around May 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C. Neutral conditions are imminent. The SOI was +15.95 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.147 today. On May 27 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.609 (RMM). The May 26-adjusted amplitude was 1.691 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 65.2° (2.0° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted May 29 Share Posted May 29 11 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Decent activity moving into western nj Looks like it will be moving in here momentarily 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 29 Share Posted May 29 It’s going to rain 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 29 Author Share Posted May 29 Rain thunder and lightning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted May 30 Share Posted May 30 No thunder here, but it's raining heavily and some decent wind gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 30 Author Share Posted May 30 5 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: No thunder here, but it's raining heavily and some decent wind gusts. Had a couple really loud strikes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted May 30 Share Posted May 30 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Had a couple really loud strikes I did finally get a couple here too. Not a lot of lightning with this storm though. The main thing is the extremely heavy rain. It's coming down in buckets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted May 30 Share Posted May 30 Somehow all the heavier rains missed here. .17 so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 30 Share Posted May 30 21 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Rain thunder and lightning Yup. Sounds nice. It’s going to be a wet summer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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