gravitylover Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Newark only made it to 90° this spring which is the 3rd coolest since the warmer pattern began back in 2010. While the planet is setting records for SSTs daily, we are one of the few places with a cold pool nearby. So it goes to show how strong that easterly flow has been. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Mar through MayClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 2020 86 0 2014 88 0 2024 90 8 2019 90 0 2015 91 0 2012 92 0 2011 92 0 2023 93 0 2018 94 0 2017 94 0 2013 94 0 2010 95 0 2021 96 0 2016 96 0 2022 98 0 What are the chances that cold pool hangs on long enough to help divert TSs and hurricanes away? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 1 hour ago, Poker2015 said: Anyone else get woken up by the 2.9 earthquake at 3:50am? I happend to be awake and I felt it. Was kind of subtle but I did feel it and there was a low rumbling sound associated with it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 79 and partly sunny, warmest day of the next 7-9 on tap. Some showers and more clouds over the Sothern 1/3 of NJ. Mid - upper 80s (warm spots small outside shot at 90). Sat looks dry and partly sunny low 80s and Sun similar but chance of showers/rain by the later pm. Memorial day looking potentially quite wet. Beyond there trough into the NE to close may near / slightly below normal. Next month opens with a trough cutting off and pending on the location of the cut off we'll see a southerly flow or onshore flow and perhaps unsettles through the 5th. Beyond there heights rise into the second week of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 1 hour ago, gravitylover said: What are the chances that cold pool hangs on long enough to help divert TSs and hurricanes away? The SST pattern in the North Atlantic began to shift around May 2023 from a record warm pool east of New England to a colder one. It has been associated this spring with all these backdoor cold fronts and low pressure east of New England. Unfortunately, models just aren’t very good beyond 10-15 days to know how much longer this pattern will persist. I am still not sure if this represents a shift to a newer SST and 500mb pattern or it’s just temporary blip associated with the strong Canadian blocking pattern which emerged last May. Plus trying to figure out seasonal hurricane track forecasts beyond 2 weeks out can be low skill. We usually have to wait for the tropics to become active and see what the 500mb steering forecasts look like. Beyond this hurricane season, it will be interesting to see if we can eventually get another cold winter month here. Some blocking and more of a trough to our east could get it done. Our last cold winter month was way back in January 2022. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 Early June trough clinging off the NE coast. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 South shore cooking with the north winds. Immediate North shore 10 degrees cooler. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 16 minutes ago, psv88 said: South shore cooking with the north winds. Immediate North shore 10 degrees cooler. Winds off the sound here, compressional heating down there. 81 in Long Beach, 76 here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 Warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 82 here Pretty comfortable but the pollen is really high today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 2 hours ago, gravitylover said: What are the chances that cold pool hangs on long enough to help divert TSs and hurricanes away? It may help, but the cone of uncertainty is 100s of miles wide for a reason. No one knows where these things are going without being off by 100s of miles at just a few days most of the time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 dewpoint very comfortable will be very pleasant evening.... 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 7 minutes ago, nycwinter said: dewpoint very comfortable will be very pleasant evening.... Wearing your hoodie ? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 85 DP 51 with the West wind at my station. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 84/49 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 1 hour ago, FPizz said: It may help, but the cone of uncertainty is 100s of miles wide for a reason. No one knows where these things are going without being off by 100s of miles at just a few days most of the time. Case in point Hurricane Ian 2 yrs ago-the media was all in Tampa when they should have been 150 miles south in Fort Myers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 86 degrees here right now feels great with the dewpoint at 45. A top 10 day of the year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 Current temp is 85 here. We will have to start keeping a close eye on Monday as some of the models are starting to put out some pretty heavy rainfall amounts especially for NW areas. There is also a risk of severe storms as well. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 7 hours ago, bluewave said: Newark only made it to 90° this spring which is the 3rd coolest since the warmer pattern began back in 2010. While the planet is setting records for SSTs daily, we are one of the few places with a cold pool nearby. So it goes to show how strong that easterly flow has been. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Mar through MayClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 2020 86 0 2014 88 0 2024 90 8 2019 90 0 2015 91 0 2012 92 0 2011 92 0 2023 93 0 2018 94 0 2017 94 0 2013 94 0 2010 95 0 2021 96 0 2016 96 0 2022 98 0 today is the perfect day! we're the area hot spot too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 51 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: 86 degrees here right now feels great with the dewpoint at 45. A top 10 day of the year. yes the ideal weather! I want this in the summer-- 100 degrees dew point of 50 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 1 hour ago, weathermedic said: 85 DP 51 with the West wind at my station. ideal weather! pristine blue skies too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 3 hours ago, psv88 said: South shore cooking with the north winds. Immediate North shore 10 degrees cooler. its ideal weather with low humidity, we hit 86 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 3 hours ago, jm1220 said: Winds off the sound here, compressional heating down there. 81 in Long Beach, 76 here. we hit 86 degrees here last hour with very low humidity, I want this in the summer-- except 100 degrees 50 dew point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 4 hours ago, bluewave said: The SST pattern in the North Atlantic began to shift around May 2023 from a record warm pool east of New England to a colder one. It has been associated this spring with all these backdoor cold fronts and low pressure east of New England. Unfortunately, models just aren’t very good beyond 10-15 days to know how much longer this pattern will persist. I am still not sure if this represents a shift to a newer SST and 500mb pattern or it’s just temporary blip associated with the strong Canadian blocking pattern which emerged last May. Plus trying to figure out seasonal hurricane track forecasts beyond 2 weeks out can be low skill. We usually have to wait for the tropics to become active and see what the 500mb steering forecasts look like. Beyond this hurricane season, it will be interesting to see if we can eventually get another cold winter month here. Some blocking and more of a trough to our east could get it done. Our last cold winter month was way back in January 2022. wasn't last May much warmer and drier than this one though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 20 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: wasn't last May much warmer and drier than this one though? Last Mat at EWR was +0.2 with 0.89" rain the entire month May this year is currently +2.8 w/ 2.17" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 Currently 85 and 48 DT very splendid out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 87/50 now with a NW wind 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 Ideal weather! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 24 Author Share Posted May 24 https://twitter.com/iembot_okx/status/1794090100084863464?t=0u3Mip7waqpFhXkqarwZeA&s=19 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 the pollen seems to be imparting a haze to the air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 some differences in models for the rain timing wise-some keep it dry through most of Monday-others bring it in around noon-obviously western sections will be first to get it regardless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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