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  On 5/23/2024 at 4:45 PM, winterwx21 said:

I'm glad Saturday and Sunday are looking better and better. 2 out of 3 isn't bad for the holiday weekend. I usually have my cookouts Sunday and Monday, but I'm moving it up to Saturday and Sunday. 

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I’m so used to crappy Memorial Day weekends I’ll gladly and happily take a decent Saturday and Sunday to sacrifice Monday. 

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Temperatures will reach the lower and middle 80s tomorrow. However, the humidity will be lower than it has recently been.
Temperatures will generally remain near or somewhat above normal from the weekend through the remainder of May. Periods of rain are likely on Memorial Day.

The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around May 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.57°C. Neutral conditions are imminent.

The SOI was -0.98 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.172 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 87% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 64.9° (1.7° above normal).

 

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Newark only made it to 90° this spring which is the 3rd coolest since the warmer pattern began back in 2010. While the planet is setting records for SSTs daily, we are one of the few places with a cold pool nearby. So it goes to show how strong that easterly flow has been.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Mar through May
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
  2020 86 0
  2014 88 0
  2024 90 8
  2019 90 0
  2015 91 0
  2012 92 0
  2011 92 0
  2023 93 0
  2018 94 0
  2017 94 0
  2013 94 0
  2010 95 0
  2021 96 0
  2016 96 0
  2022 98 0

 

B0C2B294-261F-4BD9-BED6-AF177D4572B8.png

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