jm1220 Posted May 17 Share Posted May 17 9 minutes ago, nycwinter said: that will not pan out hot and wet for nyc for 3 month period not going to happen; It can be a wet month in the summer if we have a tropical system come in for 2 days and we have 15 days over 90 for a high, or our normally high overnight lows. It’s expected to be a hyperactive hurricane season so it’s certainly doable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted May 17 Share Posted May 17 2 hours ago, nycwinter said: hot and wet makes no sense... What in tarnation are you even talking about? Those gloves and that hoodie seem to be cutting off important circulation 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted May 17 Share Posted May 17 12 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: remember last summer?!??! no i look forward never back... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted May 17 Share Posted May 17 8 minutes ago, jm1220 said: It can be a wet month in the summer if we have a tropical system come in for 2 days and we have 15 days over 90 for a high, or our normally high overnight lows. It’s expected to be a hyperactive hurricane season so it’s certainly doable. and how many summers recently has central park had 15 or more 90 degree days? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 17 Share Posted May 17 Not a bad day out there temperature wise. Current temp is 73 here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 17 Share Posted May 17 3 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Not a bad day out there temperature wise. Current temp is 73 here. I'll take anything dry and warm right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 17 Share Posted May 17 Can’t shake the clouds today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 17 Share Posted May 17 6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: I'll take anything dry and warm right now... It's certainly better then 55 and mist. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted May 17 Share Posted May 17 15 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: By Wednesday we'll be bored by the sunny weather Sunday Partly sunny, with a high near 73. Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 75. Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 77. Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 78. Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 78. I'm betting it will be quite a bit warmer than this forecast too. With sunshine and the winds switching to the SSW, our area should get up to the mid 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 17 Share Posted May 17 Places like Newark have been getting close to 30 days and higher reaching 90° and very wet summers since our warmer summer pattern began in 2010. So the warm and wet summer pattern has become the new normal. This is what happens with high pressure east of New England which gives us a more humid onshore flow with higher dewpoints. 14 wettest summers at Newark and annual number of 90° days Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jun through AugClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Annual 90° days 1 2011 23.57 31 2 2003 21.30 20 3 2021 20.46 41 4 2007 19.27 21 5 1971 19.09 22 6 1975 18.78 12 7 2019 18.76 27 8 2009 18.70 14 9 1942 17.71 15 10 1989 17.67 27 11 1948 17.47 26 12 2020 17.30 31 13 2013 17.05 25 14 1952 16.80 31 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted May 17 Share Posted May 17 2 hours ago, Rtd208 said: It's certainly better then 55 and mist. i prefer 55 and mist.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 17 Share Posted May 17 2 hours ago, winterwx21 said: I'm betting it will be quite a bit warmer than this forecast too. With sunshine and the winds switching to the SSW, our area should get up to the mid 80s. I fear the east wind next week… I hope it’s not more of the same with a 80 degree day sprinkled in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted May 17 Share Posted May 17 5 hours ago, bluewave said: That’s pretty much a persistence forecast based on the summer patterns since the 15-16 super El Niño. The rainfall is based on the record warm Atlantic and extremely active tropical cyclone potential plus persistence since 15-16. There's nothing globally that's happening that is different from the decadal trend, so I like the forecast. In 2020, I started realizing that we were "evening out" one year to another (Feb 2020 would be +pna so Feb 2021 would be -pna, etc.), and I do think we are "due" for hotter weather in the Spring/Summer, partially because of how much cooler it has been relative to the trend in recent years. if not this year, then future years.. March 2012 was super warm, then Summer 2012 broke the record for arctic ice melt, so maybe as that starts heavily progressing again we will go warmer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted May 17 Share Posted May 17 3 hours ago, nycwinter said: and how many summers recently has central park had 15 or more 90 degree days? Using central park as your argument... lmaooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted May 17 Share Posted May 17 4 hours ago, Brian5671 said: remember last summer?!??! And the summer before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 17 Share Posted May 17 A partly to mostly cloudy weekend lies ahead. Sunshine will likely increase on Sunday. A few scattered showers are still possible during the weekend. Temperatures should reach the upper 60s to lower 70s tomorrow and lower to middle 70s across the region on Sunday. No significant early-season heat is likely through at least the first three weeks of May. However, it will likely turn warmer next week as sunshine returns. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.3°C for the week centered around May 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.73°C. Neutral conditions are now developing. The SOI was -1.67 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.023 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 62% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.7° (0.5° above normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 17 Share Posted May 17 Records: Highs: EWR: 94 (1974) NYC: 92 (1974) LGA: 94 (2017) JFK: 89 (1974) LOWs: EWR: 39 (1956) NYC: 39 (1956) LGA: 38 (1983) JFK: 42 (1983) Historical: 1825 - A tornado (said to have crossed all of the state of Ohio) smashed into the log cabin settlement of Burlington, northeast of Columbus. (David Ludlum) 1896: An estimated F5 tornado tracked 100 miles through northeastern Kansas and extreme southeastern Nebraska. Seneca, Oneida, Sabetha, and Reserve, Kansas sustained severe damage. While passing through Reserve, the tornado was 2 miles wide. 25 people were killed, and 200 were injured. The cost was estimated at $400,000. 1960 - Salt Lake City UT received an inch of snow. It marked their latest measurable snowfall of record. (The Weather Channel) 1979: A reading of 12 degrees at Mauna Kea Observatory established a record low for the state of Hawaii. 1980 - Mount Saint Helens (in Washington State) erupted spewing ash and smoke sixty-three thousand feet into the air. Heavy ash covered the ground to the immediate northwest, and small particles were carried to the Atlantic coast. (David Ludlum) 1987 - Thunderstorms in Kansas, developing along a cold front, spawned tornadoes at Emporia and Toledo, produced wind gusts to 65 mph at Fort Scott, and produced golf ball size hail in the Kansas City area. Unseasonably hot weather prevailed ahead of the cold front. Pomona NJ reported a record high of 93 degrees, and Altus, OK, hit 100 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Low pressure anchored over eastern Virginia kept showers and thunderstorms over the Middle Atlantic Coast Region. Flash flooding was reported in Pennsylvania. Up to five inches of rain drenched Franklin County PA in 24 hours. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced severe weather from the Central Gulf Coast States to the Lower Missouri Valley during the day and evening. Thunderstorms spawned sixteen tornadoes, and there were 74 reports of large hail and damaging winds. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the central U.S. spawning a sixteen tornadoes, including a dozen in Nebraska. Thunderstorms also produced hail four inches in diameter at Perryton TX, wind gusts to 84 mph at Ellis KS, and high winds which caused nearly two million dollars damage at Sutherland NE. Thunderstorms deluged Sioux City IA with up to eight inches of rain, resulting in a record flood crest on Perry Creek and at least 4.5 million dollars damage. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 15 hours ago, Allsnow said: I fear the east wind next week… I hope it’s not more of the same with a 80 degree day sprinkled in The Euro has an over the top warm up next week with 90° potential in New Hampshire and 80s around Newark. Looks like just enough SSE flow at Newark to push against the 90° there. But if the winds can go more SSW for a few hours ,then Newark could sneak in a 90°. But this onshore influence has been so strong that it may be a challenge. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 12 minutes ago, bluewave said: The Euro has an over the top warm up next week with 90° potential in New Hampshire and 80s around Newark. Looks like just enough SSE flow at Newark to push against the 90° there. But if the winds can go more SSW for a few hours ,then Newark could sneak in a 90°. But this onshore influence has been so strong that it may be a challenge. Given the cool and rainy pattern we have had recently I will take 80's any day of the week and twice on Sunday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The Euro has an over the top warm up next week with 90° potential in New Hampshire and 80s around Newark. Looks like just enough SSE flow at Newark to push against the 90° there. But if the winds can go more SSW for a few hours ,then Newark could sneak in a 90°. But this onshore influence has been so strong that it may be a challenge. 90 in Concord and 70 here with low clouds probably. That would be a kick in the teeth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 18 Author Share Posted May 18 Radar looks rather ominous. Gfs is dry but nam and euro have measurable precip this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 Another beautiful day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 Haven't seen the sun in how long? Feels like forever. We've been locked in with these clouds. These clouds will probably clear just in time for Monday lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 1 minute ago, TWCCraig said: Haven't seen the sun in how long? Feels like forever. We've been locked in with these clouds. These clouds will probably clear just in time for Monday lol And then rain again next weekend. Absolutely horrific month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 Temp not to bad this morning. Current temp 69 Temps should hover in the upper 60's to low 70's today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 71 already in Montreal. Crushing us all week. Another nice day shaping up in Maine as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 Was summer-like when I left Albany yesterday afternoon and Seattle-like when I arrived in NYC three hours later. Make it stop! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 69 and mostly cloudy. Rain staying south so far. Mostly cloudy today and part of tomorrow before clearing. Overall much warmer week ahead with Tue (5/21) - Thu (5/23) warmest of the next 7 days. Shot at mid 80s to low 90s in the hot spots. Fri (5/24) into next weekend / Memorial Day weekend, looking near normal - slightly above - and mainly dry at this range GFS / and a bit wet on the euro Sat-sun. Will see. Beyond there overall near normal to close the month as it looks today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 we are in that narrow sliver of sun here. 66 degrees...raining in E CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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