May 2024

[EWR757]

  On 5/16/2024 at 12:48 PM, FPizz said:

I think last May was one of our sunniest in many years interestingly.  My solar panels recorded their highest monthly output for any month in the 11 years I've had them.  

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The NWS CF6’s for LGA, JFK, EWR and PHL show 80% cloud cover to date for May.  This month, we are almost as cloudy as the Great Lakes region in a typical early winter.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LGA&product=CF6&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0

 

 

[FPizz]

  On 5/16/2024 at 1:12 PM, EWR757 said:

The NWS CF6’s for LGA, JFK, EWR and PHL show 80% cloud cover to date for May.  This month, we are almost as cloudy as the Great Lakes region in a typical early winter.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LGA&product=CF6&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0

 

 

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Yeah, this May has been terrible.  Last year was great.

[LibertyBell]

  On 5/16/2024 at 12:48 PM, FPizz said:

I think last May was one of our sunniest in many years interestingly.  My solar panels recorded their highest monthly output for any month in the 11 years I've had them.  

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I grew up in very sunny Mays which is what we had in the 90s.

The climate models that said we would just get super baking hot in a straight line were wrong-- I have to say.

It might be true in other parts of the world but definitely not here.

 

[bluewave]

  On 5/16/2024 at 1:20 PM, LibertyBell said:

I grew up in very sunny Mays which is what we had in the 90s.

The climate models that said we would just get super baking hot in a straight line were wrong-- I have to say.

It might be true in other parts of the world but definitely not here.

 

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The global climate models are just general tools which show a range of global temperatures for varying amounts of Co2 emissions. They are not regional climate models. That’s why so many of the changes we have been seeing weren’t forecast. Such as the WPAC warming faster than the EPAC leading to a La Niña background pattern and more MJO 4-7 phases. Details about the NAO becoming more positive during the winter and negative in spring  and summer weren’t forecast either. Plus the highs to the east of New England with more onshore flow during the summer and record SE ridge most of the year came as a surprise to us. The weather patterns have been changing faster than our computer modeling have been able to keep up with . 

[LibertyBell]

  On 5/16/2024 at 2:46 PM, bluewave said:

The global climate models are just general tools which show a range of global temperatures for varying amounts of Co2 emissions. They are not regional climate models. That’s why so many of the changes we have been seeing weren’t forecast. Such as the WPAC warming faster than the EPAC leading to a La Niña background pattern and more MJO 4-7 phases. Details about the NAO becoming more positive during the winter and negative in spring  and summer weren’t forecast either. Plus the highs to the east of New England with more onshore flow during the summer and record SE ridge most of the year came as a surprise to us. The weather patterns have been changing faster than our computer modeling have been able to keep up with . 

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Yes, plus some seasons warming much faster than others, like winter warming far exceeding spring warming for us.

I remember some of the predictions from about 10 years ago-- one of the most glaring ones was the prediction that Hartford's climate would become like what Atlanta was at the time by 2045 and also an average 3x 100 degree days every year for NYC.  I guess it could still happen since we are 20 years away from 2045.

[jm1220]

  On 5/16/2024 at 12:22 PM, Allsnow said:

I better get good weather on Memorial Day weekend 

 

 

 

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Eventually this has to change but we all know what a closed upper level low south of us means. Yesterday on the GFS for 7 straight days it had easterly winds of some kind. Maybe we can get low 70s with that when we can get the sun to come out, definitely no heat. And anywhere near a barrier beach maybe you can get mid 60s. Hopefully that map is wrong. 

Big patch of cold SSTs east of us now with this endless cool/easterly wind pattern. 

[bluewave]

  On 5/16/2024 at 2:50 PM, LibertyBell said:

Yes, plus some seasons warming much faster than others, like winter warming far exceeding spring warming for us.

I remember some of the predictions from about 10 years ago-- one of the most glaring ones was the prediction that Hartford's climate would become like what Atlanta was at the time by 2045 and also an average 3x 100 degree days every year for NYC.  I guess it could still happen since we are 20 years away from 2045.

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Yeah, this is essentially one big science experiment that is being run on the climate with many of the finer details not being known until after they happen. 

[LibertyBell]

  On 5/16/2024 at 2:57 PM, bluewave said:

Yeah, this is essentially one big science experiment that is being run on the climate with many of the finer details not being known until after they happen. 

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This is why we're always playing catch up unfortunately.

With all that being said, did the models correctly forecast all these marine heatwaves? I know sea level rise seems to be exceeding their expectations so far.

 

[JetsPens87]

Gotta start getting some hot and humid weather to burn out the weenies

[JetsPens87]

  On 5/16/2024 at 12:20 PM, MJO812 said:

This weather has been perfect . Feels like Autumn which I love besides winter. 

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Wrong 

Temp wise whatever. But the constant rain is miserable (ya know...for those of us that have lives that want to be outside)

[psv88]

Winds gusting to 39 at ISP last night, still gusting to 37. This is just awful. Sheet drizzle continues 

[MJO812]

Cloudy and cool right now

Playing football at a field day 

[JetsPens87]

  On 5/16/2024 at 3:13 PM, MJO812 said:

Cloudy and cool right now

Playing football at a field day 

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Oh so you do go outside?

I hope it starts pouring so you can't play

[bluewave]

  On 5/16/2024 at 3:05 PM, psv88 said:

Winds gusting to 39 at ISP last night, still gusting to 37. This is just awful. Sheet drizzle continues 

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So far ISP is tied for the cloudiest May at least through the first half of the month. 
 

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=45&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=ISP&hour=12&year=2024&month=5&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png
 

[JustinRP37]

  On 5/16/2024 at 2:58 PM, LibertyBell said:

This is why we're always playing catch up unfortunately.

With all that being said, did the models correctly forecast all these marine heatwaves? I know sea level rise seems to be exceeding their expectations so far.

 

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The models for warming have actually been consistently under estimating the amount of warming. Even this month is roughly average (with the elevated averages). We are just feeling it more because our daytime departures have been normal or below, while overnight lows drive the departure. Most climatologists did predict that the northeast would see more spring blocking with a warming climate. But note that even with overall planet warming, the AMOC slowing is going to change the temperature in the northern hemisphere in a big way. Right now it moves a TON of warmth into the northern hemisphere. If that continues to slow and break down (thanks to the melting off Greenland), then we will see a big change to cold, especially in Europe. Many papers in the scientific literature about it in the past few years, but here is one from Popular Mechanics: https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/environment/a46989602/amoc-collapse/. 

[FPizz]

  On 5/16/2024 at 3:18 PM, bluewave said:

So far ISP is tied for the cloudiest May at least through the first half of the month. 
 

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=45&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=ISP&hour=12&year=2024&month=5&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png
 

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That a good chart.  So last year was a top 3 sunny May in the last nearly 50 years.  

[MJO812]

My allergies are horrendous right now . 

[dWave]

  On 5/15/2024 at 11:06 PM, the_other_guy said:

Im with you. This is a long shit slog of rain from Nov thru spring with temps in 40s and 50s. Then a summer of bugs and humidity. It is terrible.

 

Mentally, it is getting to be like the Pacific NW. Not good.

 

Worth a move out west to a sunny dry type climate (Denver/SLC) if you can swing it

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You don't even have to go that far for a nicer spring. There's so many days where it's dreary 50s here, meanwhile it's 75 - 85 Philly to DC. The proximity makes it feel worse. That doesn't help with the summers though, no escape that on the east coast.

[bluewave]

  On 5/16/2024 at 4:10 PM, FPizz said:

That a good chart.  So last year was a top 3 sunny May in the last nearly 50 years.  

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Last May didn’t feel like it was that sunny due to the record amount of wildfire smoke. It peaked in early June. I will take this kind of pattern any day over that really poor air quality. 
 

 

[JerseyWx]

  On 5/16/2024 at 3:18 PM, bluewave said:

So far ISP is tied for the cloudiest May at least through the first half of the month. 
 

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=45&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=ISP&hour=12&year=2024&month=5&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png
 

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Nice, I put in MMU, cloudy 62% of the time at 12 pm, double climatology.

[bluewave]

  On 5/16/2024 at 5:46 PM, JerseyWx said:

Nice, I put in MMU, cloudy 62% of the time at 12 pm, double climatology.

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This happens to be one of the very few months since the 15-16 super El Niño with a trough near the East Coast while there is a deep -PNA trough in the West. So something changed this month to go against the long term pattern. Figures a pattern like this would wait until May and not happen in the winter. It even left a decent cold pool to our east. Most other months like this over the last decade would have had a strong WAR or Southeast ridge pattern.

 

 

[Eduardo]

  On 5/16/2024 at 6:19 PM, bluewave said:

This happens to be one of the very few months since the 15-16 super El Niño with a trough near the East Coast while there is a deep -PNA trough in the West. So something changed this month to go against the long term pattern. Figures a pattern like this would wait until May and not happen in the winter. It even left a decent cold pool to our east. Most other months like this over the last decade would have had a strong WAR or Southeast ridge pattern.

 

 

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Is there any reason besides sheer happenstance/ bad luck why patterns beloved by winter-weather lovers lately seem to always set up outside of the winter season (and especially during the spring)?

[Stormlover74]

Just gonna ignore the euro for memorial day weekend

[winterwx21]

65 feels a little chilly with the cloudy skies and gusty NNE winds. Lousy weather, but I'm about to go for a run and that's the one positive. Obviously these cool temps are good for running. Nice to still be able to run fast with the cool weather lingering well into spring, but I am looking forward to the warmer weather next week. Looks like we could have a few days with temps in the low 80s here next week. Hopefully it won't turn ugly again for the holiday weekend. 

[Stormlover74]

  On 5/16/2024 at 6:41 PM, winterwx21 said:

65 feels a little chilly with the cloudy skies and gusty NNE winds. Lousy weather, but I'm about to go for a run and that's the one positive. Obviously these cool temps are good for running. Nice to still be able to run fast with the cool weather lingering well into spring, but I am looking forward to the warmer weather next week. Looks like we could have a few days with temps in the low 80s here next week. Hopefully it won't turn ugly again for the holiday weekend. 

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This would be perfect weather if it was October 

[Big Jims Videos]

Putting together a story for tonight on if we get rain this weekend it will be the 12th consecutive one - going back to March 2nd. Absolutely miserable out there. 

Whoever enjoys this, I have to agree with Liberty Bell on this topic, is not normal. 

[IrishRob17]

  On 5/16/2024 at 6:52 PM, Stormlover74 said:

This would be perfect weather if it was October 

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It would kill any shot at decent foliage

[Brian5671]

  On 5/16/2024 at 6:33 PM, Stormlover74 said:

Just gonna ignore the euro for memorial day weekend

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Too far out for an OP model anyway...

[bluewave]

  On 5/16/2024 at 6:27 PM, Eduardo said:

Is there any reason besides sheer happenstance/ bad luck why patterns beloved by winter-weather lovers lately seem to always set up outside of the winter season (and especially during the spring)?

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Recent winters have been overpowered by the record WPAC warm pool along the equator and east of Japan. So we get the repeating MJO 4-7 phases. This spring saw the +IOD reduce convection enough near the Maritime continent so we got the solid MJO 8 pattern. That lingering influence is what we have had since March 20th. The pattern could continue at least through the Memorial Day weekend according to the Euro. It’s showing a continuation of the deep -PNA trough and lingering trough over the Northeast. 
 

[psv88]

Saw the blue sky for about 10 minutes. It’s gone already