Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,601
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

May 2024 Discussion - Welcome to Severe Season!!!!


weatherwiz
 Share

Recommended Posts

Getting two days, back-to-back, above 70 F in this -NAO relaying into a +PNA is actually a pretty fantastic achievement relative to that predicament.

Beyond that, NWS is right ... probably 5 to 6 consecutive days of BN.  How much, or if we can pull a 'normal' day out of that stretch will come down ( as usual ) to the amount of sun.  The Euro variant would be on the uglier side of a frontal boundary, with cyclic waves running out along or S of LI Each one enhancing light rain and raw E drift to the air.  Couped up cabin fever at a time of the year whence that is clearly stealing what precious time we have for summer in this godforsaken cold dumpster region of the continent...  

This is entry into solar maximum week ... From now through August 8 we are getting what we're going to get from old sol - I'd rather not spend a week of it rotting but to each is his or her own. 

That all said, I suspect the Euro is over doing it with those thermal profiles S of ~60 N across the continent after D 7 or 8 ... that looks like typical model trying to eclipse the season shit we see in that time range during spring modeling season.   For that matter, there some possibility these models are all wholesale over doing that L/W rangle in that time range. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Getting two days, back-to-back, above 70 F in this -NAO relaying into a +PNA is actually a pretty fantastic achievement relative to that predicament.

Beyond that, NWS is right ... probably 5 to 6 consecutive days of BN.  How much, or if we can pull a 'normal' day out of that stretch will come down ( as usual ) to the amount of sun.  The Euro variant would be on the uglier side of a frontal boundary, with cyclic waves running out along or S of LI Each one enhancing light rain and raw E drift to the air.  Couped up cabin fever at a time of the year whence that is clearly stealing what precious time we have for summer in this godforsaken cold dumpster region of the continent...  

This is entry into solar maximum week ... From now through August 8 we are getting what we're going to get from old sol - I'd rather not spend a week of it rotting but to each is his or her own. 

That all said, I suspect the Euro is over doing it with those thermal profiles S of ~60 N across the continent after D 7 or 8 ... that looks like typical model trying to eclipse the season shit we see in that time range during spring modeling season.   For that matter, there some possibility these models are all wholesale over doing that L/W rangle in that time range. 

Wed- Sat will be a lot of mixed clouds and sun .. showers one or two periods mixed in and 65-70 inland 55-60 near nasty N Atl . NWS always ACATT and a few high folks  go by it 

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Wed- Sat will be a lot of mixed clouds and sun .. showers one or two periods mixed in and 65-70 inland 55-60 near nasty N Atl . NWS always ACATT and a few high folks  go by it 

You got me. Your guy says everything is looking great for another summer week. Keep those air conditioners locked and loaded. 

 

Screenshot_20240504_215127_Chrome.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, dendrite said:

The GFS is vomit worthy after Tuesday

And that's actually better than the 00z and 06z in the sequential order.  I mean ... it's been getting better - imho.  But still is above the vomit threshold - ha.

One upshot is that it's keeping the pattern progressive while that +PNA trough spends that 5 days in there.  We're not stalling lows in the area.  I'm also noticing that we aren't pulling as much "blue line" S of the border as much as prior runs.  Maybe it's bad pattern and at the same time the model's admitting that the sun is hot now.  jeez

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's subtle . .. but, the 12z Euro's trying to normalize that D5 - 10 pattern.   It's got a ways to go but it's not as obnoxious with the 500 mb height synopsis as it was in prior runs. 

Wednesday may have some interesting convection with that entangled warm boundary/weak cyclone deal.   Nice theta e pooling in CT with a strong temperature gradient in that vicinity, with a modest mid level wind max/right exit jet region coming in over S surface winds.  

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

32 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Hoodie weather is great

 

I know I'm alone but I love this weather.

Problem is if it’s hoodie weather where you are, folks are lighting wood stoves up here :lol:.

Been stuck between 46-50F all day.  Currently 47F.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

38 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Problem is if it’s hoodie weather where you are, folks are lighting wood stoves up here :lol:.

Been stuck between 46-50F all day.  Currently 47F.

The difference between today and tomorrow will be among the more impressive single day changes we've seen in quite some time, pan-regional.  Especially in your lower els that escape the fog capped valley inversion - which I think the wind will be establishing a S bias in the Notch. 

No one's really talking about that as it's a non-injurious notable but 46 to 76 isn't out of the question say St Johnbury region, and that's true for down our way too.  It's 49 here mi casa this hour, steady R-  Can't find a model lower than 76 here when factoring in the typical 2-meter sounding slope.

This is one of the deals where the whole system sensibly is more like a warm front, even though a cf clears the region prior to dawn.  It's one of my personal labeled type of system, more common in autumn and spring - where the cold is on the front side only.  Only when this does it is spring, you get the sun booster to really bring the point home.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's subtle . .. but, the 12z Euro's trying to normalize that D5 - 10 pattern.   It's got a ways to go but it's not as obnoxious with the 500 mb height synopsis as it was in prior runs. 

Wednesday may have some interesting convection with that entangled warm boundary/weak cyclone deal.   Nice theta e pooling in CT with a strong temperature gradient in that vicinity, with a modest mid level wind max/right exit jet region coming in over S surface winds.  

Maybe some tors 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Irrelevant here but impressive cold snowstorm for even relatively low elevations in the Tahoe area.  I mean, I guess 6,000ft is still up there… but even if MWN got a cold, dry 26” in 24 hours it would be note-worthy.

IMG_9539.thumb.jpeg.78eb6d78bf0c381c4125f6a9c24bee27.jpeg

IMG_9538.thumb.jpeg.2a5c2309828f262598b81d23d68c7c9c.jpeg

IMG_9540.thumb.jpeg.346260d7b5f4e9e462542e92d9d5f878.jpeg

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...