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May 2024 Discussion - Welcome to Severe Season!!!!


weatherwiz
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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I guess we can hope that heat ridge over Mexico will build north into the center of the country or perhaps even better, build into the Missouri/Ohio Valley. 

Yeah hopefully that sets up sooner than later while there's some cool air available in CA and decent westerlies.

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2 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Yeah hopefully that sets up sooner than later while there's some cool air available in CA and decent westerlies.

We'll see what happens. The GFS and Euro want to build substantial ridging into the West and some deep, anomalous troughing across the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. 

Looking at today's 12z Euro/GFS they are in pretty damn good agreement in the extended range on how the pattern evolves. Looks like both continue to highlight the PNA/EPO/Arctic teles as playing significant roles in the pattern going through June...pretty weird. 

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22 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

We'll see what happens. The GFS and Euro want to build substantial ridging into the West and some deep, anomalous troughing across the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. 

Looking at today's 12z Euro/GFS they are in pretty damn good agreement in the extended range on how the pattern evolves. Looks like both continue to highlight the PNA/EPO/Arctic teles as playing significant roles in the pattern going through June...pretty weird. 

Beautiful. More coc to go around.

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2 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

Not sure about ring of fire/dews.  lol  That's more of a mid-summer phenomenon anyway.  if correct, we'll enjoy these days though

image_2024-05-28_173739839.png

Looks like a NW flow type pattern for 7-10 days or so. 80’s- near 90.. dews ramp up prior to fropas and storms . First 7-10 or so of Junorch 

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28 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Looks like a NW flow chart pattern for 7-10 days or so. 80’s- near 90.. dews ramp up prior to fropas and storms . First 7-10 or so of Junorch 

Can you post a couple of these progs to outline this?

Because all ensembles show something different.

This is 5-day means from June 5-10th on both GEFS and EPS.

IMG_9744.thumb.png.ada34168f61f70ba38634acc6ef04c97.png

IMG_9743.thumb.png.1778c67bbd59e101fb9560b47a6ece72.png

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16 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Can you post a couple of these progs to outline this?

Because all ensembles show something different.

This is 5-day means from June 5-10th on both GEFS and EPS.

IMG_9744.thumb.png.ada34168f61f70ba38634acc6ef04c97.png

IMG_9743.thumb.png.1778c67bbd59e101fb9560b47a6ece72.png

I think Kevin is in the ballpark with that statement. Pre FROPAs it could be very warm and humid given instances of riding at 850 with the ridge axis just off the coast so we would see a SW llvl flow. 
 

This is the kind of look which can be exciting in terms of thunderstorm potential. With a W/NW flow aloft and a more SW flow in the llvls.

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3 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

I think Kevin is in the ballpark with that statement. Pre FROPAs it could be very warm and humid given instances of riding at 850 with the ridge axis just off the coast so we would see a SW llvl flow. 
 

This is the kind of look which can be exciting in terms of thunderstorm potential. With a W/NW flow aloft and a more SW flow in the llvls.

I guess I just balked at that upper level pattern providing 7-10 days of summer heat, 80s to near 90F.

For his NW flow ring-of-fire he’s talking about, I want to see ridging in the Ohio Valley, forcing energy over it before accelerating SE through New England… not below normal heights there on a 5-day mean.

I just interpret a NW heater flow as something else on the “charts”… not SW moist flow mixed with some post-FROPA air masses.

This is the exact opposite of having lower heights to our SW.

IMG_9747.thumb.png.9b8bb94ecce4d425493304f43bb03fe2.png
 

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