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May 2024 Discussion - Welcome to Severe Season!!!!


weatherwiz
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2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Still struggling to reach 70 here in the HFD area. Almost there though. 

 

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

82 here ... 

see, you'll probably end up around there by mid afternoon.  Like what happened here, we had a critical threshold moment where the diurnal inversion needed to be cooked away and then we surged from 71 to 82 over the last 1 hr or so.   You're delayed by some 2 hours because of that weird strata's ability to defy the sun's direct physical absorption.  haha

When we get those morning weird layers they do steal away from the day.

Yup, we soared shortly after this. Just shy of 81 now. Beautiful day. 

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well,.. regardless of what is ultimately the high temperature, it's a hot day around this region of N central Mass.  Maybe some of that is acclimation but 89/64 yields a HI of 90.x ... so tfwiw

FIT and ASH are both 89.6 at Mesowest.utah.edu ... we'll have to see what's up with rounding on that.

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Iowa is Iowa…it’s a classic active year out there. Would’ve been a good year to head west. 

It certainly has been quite the stretch. There's already been a handful of PDS Tornado Watches this year. I'm sure there are stats out there somewhere but I would not be surprised if we're ahead of some pace for PDS Watches...hell, probably even tornado emergencies. 

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30 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It certainly has been quite the stretch. There's already been a handful of PDS Tornado Watches this year. I'm sure there are stats out there somewhere but I would not be surprised if we're ahead of some pace for PDS Watches...hell, probably even tornado emergencies. 

You’re more plugged in on severe than I’ll ever be, but if I were to hazard a guess about our summer it’d be active storm wise. Once we break into heat and dews..

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3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

You’re more plugged in on severe than I’ll ever be, but if I were to hazard a guess about our summer it’d be active storm wise. Once we break into heat and dews..

Hoping so. I hope we keep some troughing around in Canada, particularly southeast Canada so we can keep the jet stream unseasonably strong. 

It's been interesting to note though (I believe Tip alluded to this several times) the guidance long-range tendency to be very trough like in the east and showing little heat - only for this signal to quickly fade around the D5-7 time frame. I'd like to see the heat dome over Mexico/west Texas build a bit poleward with an east-shifted axis. 

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Okay, installation of 2nd floor complete.

Schweatty balls doing the task.  wow is it hot up there.  84 is the magic temp for this property. If it's 83 outside ... it's borderline up there by 11pm.  But 84 ... boom, 1001 degree F   I could feel the heat by mid stair well.   90 at several home sites within a mile.

Can't wait. In 8 days I getting my estimate for minny splits.

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ho man... Des Moines could be in deep shit

that environment is insane.

70 knots of bulk shear, ~400 m2s2 of effective helicity, 2000+ MLCAPE with CIN eroding quickly, and increasing sfc vorticity. 

storm mode...looks like we have a QLCS of supercells. Southern flank of this will be ripe for strong TORs. DSM and points north and east in some trouble.

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43 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Hoping so. I hope we keep some troughing around in Canada, particularly southeast Canada so we can keep the jet stream unseasonably strong. 

It's been interesting to note though (I believe Tip alluded to this several times) the guidance long-range tendency to be very trough like in the east and showing little heat - only for this signal to quickly fade around the D5-7 time frame. I'd like to see the heat dome over Mexico/west Texas build a bit poleward with an east-shifted axis. 

I could see that in June, with a flip later July/August but that’s entirely speculative. I’ve heard Nina summers usually feature +NAOs and more Atlantic/SE Canada ridging. 

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