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May 2024 Discussion - Welcome to Severe Season!!!!


weatherwiz
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38 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Can't beat this . Nice warm temperatures and low low humidity . What's not to like? Chamber of commerce week incoming...

"

Very warm temperatures
are expected on Tuesday and Wednesday, with temperatures
reaching into the 80s, with an outside chance a few locations
see 90 degrees on Wednesday. Humidity levels will be on the low side accompanying that midweek warmth, hence, a somewhat dry
heat.

Yea and Fri-Sun look even more coc’d with dews in 30s and 40s. High fives all around…

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1 hour ago, champy said:

How do you guys keep dealing with this clown for years on end? What a nut.

After 20 years on wx boards/forums, he’s like the family member that drives you crazy, but keeps you engaged with wild takes.  The crazy (drunk?) uncle at the wedding that is always optimistic that good times are ahead, but will often say things that you feel the need to fact check. 

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So the clouds aren't going to clear today, and now it's looking like tomorrow the clouds and cool ocean flow will still be around, lol. Heat stymied again, never fails. 

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4 minutes ago, Patrick-02540 said:

They're eroding just to my west in western CT. Should have full sun within the hour.  

Yeah Western areas are good. But from the ORH hills east though, it's like there's a forcefield lol. 

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37 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Looking forward to a warm sunny holiday weekend. Ryan’s got us 75-80. Maybe the coast will be different.

It may be in jeopardy.  Well ... it already is actually, when considering the modeling.

One can certainly eschew the modeling and go with the clad dependable "positive thinking" approach...  to each his or her own.

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Sides ... I don't think I recall but 1 ...maybe 2  MDWs in my entire life span that were not 86ed at least partially.  

That GFS model has demonstrated a remarkable penchants for ruining what people want, period. It's not even like it's modeling the atmosphere - it's modeling the degree of sore butting what people want and plans. Doesn't matter what it is.  Could be a winter storm.  Could be the 4th of July, ...Labor Day..... MDW.   It will run out and find any thing physically plausible to gum up the works.  hahahaha

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2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Feels like a paradigm shift this morning after that last bit of stratus vaporized. Like we opened the door to the warm weather the rest of the country has gotten to experience. 

66

needs work <_<

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

There's still a large pool of cooler water to the east to work through.

Will probably take til mid June before summer is actually consistently here. 

Just touched 70 now.

The 'cooler water issue' is only an issue when the winds are from that realm. 

What we've dealt with so far this particular spring - as I have personally observed - is a fractal, or repeating occurrence whence Sunday nadirs in temperature, followed by a mid week acme in the distribution tendency.  This is going back several weeks worth, and has been a consistent leitmotif ever since.  Usually characterized by raw temps with some sort of moisture in air or within synoptic reach of the region around the ~ weekend times, followed by a rapid improvement and some sore of compensating climate warm up happening by ~Tue/Wed.   Spanning that time I've seen a lot of Mon/Tue model-based outlooks for the following Sunday with warmth, only to have the week's shenanigans eventually modulate into a piece of utter dung day by the time Sunday really happened.

That's why I'm a little leery of any model right now suggesting otherwise over MDW ( fwiw ) because of that dependable fractal.

But yeah, duh ...the idea that being somewhere between pissed off and annoyed by the above, in general, is certainly canonical to spring E of the Hudson.   I'm just defining what I've seen of this particular annoying version going on this year.  It seems like one way or the other, be it this, a big cut-off in the west Atl that keeps buzz sawing west in periodicity, or something more pernicious like 2005 May, notwithstanding ... this particular geography on the planet happens to be a cold pattern dumpster at this time of year.  Yes there are exception years from time to time, but those are not preferential

 

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