Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,605
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

May 2024 Discussion - Welcome to Severe Season!!!!


weatherwiz
 Share

Recommended Posts

45 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Wow, Houston got fucked. And now the Nam tries to fuck the weekend.

Yeah the weekend is starting to look like shit, when as of yesterday it still looked decent. Models having a tough time lately.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

42 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Wouldn't surprise me one bit. Here's another one for some laughs

image.png.f62f5faebc81d0d9ceb0819e23063791.png

 

That's a bit different circumstance, though. The Euro I was using to commiserate was D8.5

This above is typical of the GFS at that range. ... just humoring a 372 hour chart for a moment... 

It seems like a transfixed result of the model, where out around further ranges it (perhaps) loses all other driving forcing ... allowing the underlying Labrodorian cold climate sink as an actual atmospheric footprint. I mean really, just imagine for a moment we remove the land from the map, that's indistinguishable from a the Labrador current's cold SST termination waters. Which by the way, that depiction is colder than the current, too.  It would have a cold offset regardless of its own rancid low.

( That latter fact sometimes makes me wonder if it is exposing some of the modeling strategy at NCEP where they may in fact be initializing grids based on climate.  The Lab current has been notably getting warmer in the last 10 years in particular ...etc. )

Not just with that aspect.  I've noticed the GFS is the wrong model - always - to ever detect heat at extended leads. It's like they templated the model to hide CC  LOL    ( little sarcasm there..)

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's almost like the GFS' physics cause these analogous 'Jovian' like fixed spots.  Vortex modes, and the rest of the atmosphere just starts moving around them.

We happen to be stuck with one SE of L.I. ...

Not saying its even wrong, necessarily.  There's currently a festering llv gunk low there this morning, helping to send <700mb slab back west into the region.  It seems to be all but entirely uncoupled to the mid and upper air synoptics.  Something about the llv mass field circulation medium is forcing that    interesting

  • Confused 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

All seriousness ... ( and tedium ), it's a nice out there today.

70 here.  I'm noticing that the CU trajectory and the llw wind is actually more NE were I am here in N . Middlesex in east central Mass.  That's technically not a marine flow here.  With sat presentation showing only micro fluffies getting in the way of the sun, we're probably going to be just fine this mid day.  Maybe the s-breeze mechanics overwhelm late in the day. 

I also noticed the 12z NAM is a little better for Sunday. It's probably going to be cooler coast, warmer deep interior type thing.  Could see that being 63 here and 53 at Logan.  ...75 in ALB.   With sun around.  That's a better scenario than prior run.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

All seriousness ... ( and tedium ), it's a nice out there today.

70 here.  I'm noticing that the CU trajectory and the llw wind is actually more NE were I am here in N . Middlesex in east central Mass.  That's technically not a marine flow here.  With sat presentation showing only micro fluffies getting in the way of the sun, we're probably going to be just fine this mid day.  Maybe the s-breeze mechanics overwhelm late in the day. 

I also noticed the 12z NAM is a little better for Sunday. It's probably going to be cooler coast, warmer deep interior type thing.  Could see that being 63 here and 53 at Logan.  ...75 in ALB.   With sun around.  That's a better scenario than prior run.

 

Looks like WNE is where you want to be this weekend vs ENE

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

All seriousness ... ( and tedium ), it's a nice out there today.

70 here.  I'm noticing that the CU trajectory and the llw wind is actually more NE were I am here in N . Middlesex in east central Mass.  That's technically not a marine flow here.  With sat presentation showing only micro fluffies getting in the way of the sun, we're probably going to be just fine this mid day.  Maybe the s-breeze mechanics overwhelm late in the day. 

I also noticed the 12z NAM is a little better for Sunday. It's probably going to be cooler coast, warmer deep interior type thing.  Could see that being 63 here and 53 at Logan.  ...75 in ALB.   With sun around.  That's a better scenario than prior run.

 

How do you think tomorrow ends up?  Poopie? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, NoCORH4L said:

How do you think tomorrow ends up?  Poopie? 

Yeah unfortunately ...tomorrow probably is 15 below today ( tick or two ). 

It's probably a day where Danbury CT is bathing in a utopia while Beverley MA is having second thoughts of ever having placed a town charter in that location. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It will be better here than Dendyland. Won’t be sunny , but breaks and no rain here vs washout and cold up there. 

It may not rain 'up here' though, ... much.   I mean drizzle passing here and there but primarily dry.  There's no real means to provide lift, and most likely where the models have the stationary very light QPF blob parked over eastern zones that's just the land/sea convergence over sensitive in the runs. 

It may also start to sag south during the afternoon.  Sort of like what happened yesterday.   It'll be a cooler air mass everywhere though.  It's a matter of how much.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

76F.

Just keep on torching.

It's become a phenotype of Mays to have BTV smoke NYC and BOS' batting average for warmth  lol

Although next weeks looks like a I-95 corridor warm special from D.C. to PWM Wed/Thur -

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...