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May 2024 Discussion - Welcome to Severe Season!!!!


weatherwiz
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1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

GFS has it quite wet here tonight. That zone is bouncing around a bit on guidance.

That ‘ bouncing around ‘ kinda makes me wonder if it even happens. 

Sometimes the model’s trigger when there’s potential, but the triggers themselves are erroneous. A clue when that is going on is that spraying solutions all over the board with poor continuity  

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1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Dendy continues to pile up 80s on Ditty…

Looks pretty warm next week. Not install warm but umbrella over the splitter warm. Takes me a while to convert to summer mode. I'll miss the '50s.

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13 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Looks pretty warm next week. Not install warm but umbrella over the splitter warm. Takes me a while to convert to summer mode. I'll miss the '50s.

18z GFS… if we’re going by the 500 mb geopotential height cinema alone that looks like a very warm pattern but as usual the model smatters all kinds gunk that keeps the temperatures muted and the hydrostatic hgts from expanding. Some of that is undoubtedly error, but how much- even half of that gets cleaned up we’re gonna sore into the 80s

 

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1 hour ago, kdxken said:

Looks pretty warm next week. Not install warm but umbrella over the splitter warm. Takes me a while to convert to summer mode. I'll miss the '50s.

Dews in the 40s and 50s is still spring though. Maybe thursday gets into the 60s but then back to comfort for next weekend. Nothing full on summer/humid yet…

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1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Dews in the 40s and 50s is still spring though. Maybe thursday gets into the 60s but then back to comfort for next weekend. Nothing full on summer/humid yet…

Maybe some DP's in the low 60's the next 10 days but nothing extraordinary through the end of the month.

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Full on summer always waits till June.   We get a few tastes which increase in frequency as we go forward.   I’ll use ac if we get a few consecutive warm days (80+) given how warm it gets in the bedrooms.   

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I find myself looking at it as the warm season and cold season.  We are now solidly in the warm season.

Summer or spring is a semantics argument.  It’s moving away from looking for ways to heat the living space, to windows open or A/C.

Cold or warm season… it’s a gradual transition but feels like it’s been made.  Natural snow is melting off the highest elevations to patchy cover in the spruce groves, and the valley dew points are seeing more elevated lengths of time.  Evenings are mild at times.  And the crisp frosts are becoming rare even up here in the NNE radiational spots.  Flipped to warm season.

Evening dews are elevated.  People notice/feel it.

IMG_9616.gif.9d71eeb47d74fcf5099d5c51d42a2285.gif 

 

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