Lava Rock Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 after tomorrow, wx looks pretty good through sunday. was worried a bit about wknd, especially saturday, but rn looks to stay south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 36 minutes ago, BrianW said: Looks like a nice stretch of 75-80+ temps for CT this week. Huh? No 85s. weird.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 14 Author Share Posted May 14 15 hours ago, tunafish said: I think it's been posted before and I regret not bookmarking it. Is there a site for average wind speed by climo site? I'm looking to compare seasonal wind speeds year over year (i.e. was this Spring more/less windy than last Spring?) This site may have what you're looking for. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?q=76 I wish it was easier to flip through all the charts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 The guidance across the board have continued the idea that the season's switched to the next level. Instead of 48 to 63 (yes one or two warm pops in the midst of that), it's now more like 68 to 83 as the variance. etc. Euro has +32 C at 850 mb over west Texas in the D7-10 range. That's alarming but cross that bridge. That should be watched, particularly should the frequency in the guidance(s) repeat that tendency, because that sort of hyper kinetically charged near BL EML this early is an interesting signature - leave it at that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: The guidance across the board have continued the idea that the season's switched to the next level. Instead of 48 to 63 (yes one or two warm pops in the midst of that), it's now more like 68 to 83 as the variance. etc. Euro has +32 C at 850 mb over west Texas in the D7-10 range. That's alarming but cross that bridge. That should be watched, particularly should the frequency in the guidance(s) repeat that tendency, because that sort of hyper kinetically charged near BL EML this early is an interesting signature - leave it at that. Expect that to curve into the Mid Atlantic and Southeast like every other warm season lol. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Expect that to curve into the Mid Atlantic and Southeast like every other warm season lol. I know ... the charmed existence of around here - so enabled... We're like rich kids with no appreciation. What do they call that? "Meteorological affluenza" heh I think the Euro's trying to cook up the season's first 90 at NYC-BOS. It's got a pretty intense seasonal anomaly at 850 through the region next Tues-Thurs, and already 2-meter product is 84 at Logan at a range where that model is consummately under mixed and too cool. GFS has the warmth at 850, but as usual it's inventing too many perturbations to limit sfc results, because of NOAA's conspiracy with the Trumpologists to hide CC from the model's projection (not serious) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 14 Author Share Posted May 14 This is going to sound stupid but it's an observation. Every May and June I like to just go to the GFS MLCAPE and run it through 384-HR and see if it has any big CAPE into our region. The last few years would be super frustrating in that all big CAPE would get shunted south and east from the Ohio Valley into the mid-Atlantic. One big difference I see between now and the last few years is no low pressure signal northeast of Maine which shunted all the good south. I'm going to take that as a positive and hope it means that late May or early June we can get some good severe threats. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 heh ... for morbid amusement I was just looking at 32 C at 850 on the skew-t/log-p diagram and the extrapolation is 46 C at the surface. For those that don't associate yet, that's 116 F ... and that makes sense considering the Euro has 102 at D8 in that vicinity of west Tx, which typically ... that model is 12+ F too cool in that 2-m product at that range. - why do these models even have a 2-meter anything when they are so unabashedly cold bone head stupid looking after March 21, like always? In this case, there may not be enough solar insolation to actually start baking bread ( and people ...) out in the ambient air so the 2-meter slope may ceiling there, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 15 hours ago, powderfreak said: Might have hit 70F up here today. Made it to 72 yesterday. spring's mildest so far. Just missed a 40° range, and the 33 min made for a +1 day. May is essentially average thru yesterday (+0.05). Same for precip - 1.56" compared to 1.60" avg for 1-13. If the clouds break, we'll get warm again as the morning low was mid 40s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 28 minutes ago, tamarack said: Made it to 72 yesterday. spring's mildest so far. Just missed a 40° range, and the 33 min made for a +1 day. May is essentially average thru yesterday (+0.05). Same for precip - 1.56" compared to 1.60" avg for 1-13. If the clouds break, we'll get warm again as the morning low was mid 40s. Since I have you on the line, are red maples always a lot slower to leaf out compared to sugar maples? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 It's a good thing Earth doesn't have an imbalanced anomaly distribution problem - phew... America is still great, again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 1 minute ago, kdxken said: Since I have you on the line, are red maples always a lot slower to leaf out compared to sugar maples? I like that second photo. Its verdancy is evocative 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 +13C at 850 for Brian. Lets get 85 there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 14 Author Share Posted May 14 Looks like at least southern sections get grazed with some heavy rain tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 14 Author Share Posted May 14 But who the hell knows. disastrous model consensus for tomorrow. Thank God this isn't a winter event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: But who the hell knows. disastrous model consensus for tomorrow. Thank God this isn't a winter event. Tough call for sure .. weenie range HRRR would soak and 12z NAM is trending that way Before 12z runs I would say hedge drier, but we'll have to see .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: But who the hell knows. disastrous model consensus for tomorrow. Thank God this isn't a winter event. I'm always cautious of synoptic events in the warm season. Seems like sometimes models are always a bit too far north. Not to say this won't produce rain...but something to keep in mind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 14 Author Share Posted May 14 2 minutes ago, ma blizzard said: Tough call for sure .. weenie range HRRR would soak and 12z NAM is trending that way Before 12z runs I would say hedge drier, but we'll have to see .. The NAM also looks like it is on its own island (with the HRRR). It's the most aggressive with closing off through H5 and north with the lows while Euro/GFS aren't as aggressive and south overall. The differences between the NAM/rest of guidance leads me to think NAM is out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 14 Author Share Posted May 14 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I'm always cautious of synoptic events in the warm season. Seems like sometimes models are always a bit too far north. Not to say this won't produce rain...but something to keep in mind. Agreed, just replied the NAM might be a bit out to lunch I think. Don't really see support for it's scenario. We'll see showers for sure but don't think we'll see widespread heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: This site may have what you're looking for. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?q=76 I wish it was easier to flip through all the charts. Thank you! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 1 hour ago, kdxken said: Since I have you on the line, are red maples always a lot slower to leaf out compared to sugar maples? Red maples start their growing season by producing flowers and then seeds. Leaves are sort of an afterthought. Sugar maples start growing their seeds once the leaves approach full size. Many of the red maple seeds will sprout this summer, giving that species a head start on reproduction, while most/all of the sugar maple seeds await the next spring. There are a bazillion sugar maple seedlings popping up now, thanks to a huge crop last summer. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 1 hour ago, tamarack said: Red maples start their growing season by producing flowers and then seeds. Leaves are sort of an afterthought. Sugar maples start growing their seeds once the leaves approach full size. Many of the red maple seeds will sprout this summer, giving that species a head start on reproduction, while most/all of the sugar maple seeds await the next spring. There are a bazillion sugar maple seedlings popping up now, thanks to a huge crop last summer. The seedlings are all over my back yard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 14 Author Share Posted May 14 Another fantastic days. At least down this way, the nice days have been stellar but the awful days have been totally crap. Doesn't seem like we've had many in the middle days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 15 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Another fantastic days. At least down this way, the nice days have been stellar but the awful days have been totally crap. Doesn't seem like we've had many in the middle days. 82 here warmest day since last year. I'm thinking 83 or 84 for ping high 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 14 Author Share Posted May 14 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: 82 here warmest day since last year. I'm thinking 83 or 84 for ping high Just need this to become consistent 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Just need this to become consistent I outlined this earlier but ... in a relative since, it is so in the guidance. We appear to have graduated from an variance spread of 48 to 63 ( with lolly 78s) type temperature motif, to a 68 to 83.. Caveat: I'm also a little leery too. There's a pretty strong -NAO signal emerging for the 23rdish of the month. It's getting late in the year and wave lengths overall have/are shortend(ing)... That said, the teleconnector for -NAO is not the same as it is in January. It's not clear how a blocking over the western limb of the NAO domain space will effect the circulation down here. But... it's equally low confidence that it won't. We'll have to see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 14 Author Share Posted May 14 13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I outlined this earlier but ... in a relative since, it is so in the guidance. We appear to have graduated from an variance spread of 48 to 63 ( with lolly 78s) type temperature motif, to a 68 to 83.. Caveat: I'm also a little leery too. There's a pretty strong -NAO signal emerging for the 23rdish of the month. It's getting late in the year and wave lengths overall have/are shortend(ing)... That said, the teleconnector for -NAO is not the same as it is in January. It's not clear how a blocking over the western limb of the NAO domain space will effect the circulation down here. But... it's equally low confidence that it won't. We'll have to see. You can tell there is definitely some sort of potential pattern change towards the end of the month. Doesn't necessarily mean there will be a direct impact or correlation to our region, but there is an upward/increasing trend to at least start building heat into the southern states. I loved how in your earlier posts you outlined 850 temperatures. Often times, we focus too much on the H5 look and (focusing on summer months here) and we presume that no major ridge in the East signal means no heat - that isn't true. I feel like many of our bigger heat patterns (especially the more active ones with convection) occur when we have a strong ridge in the lower-levels with less ridging in the mid-levels and more of a trough signal. This helps to transport the airmass from the Southwest or southern Plains into our region and increases the likelihood of this airmass keeping it's integrity - and we see this by advection of EML plumes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 22 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: You can tell there is definitely some sort of potential pattern change towards the end of the month. Doesn't necessarily mean there will be a direct impact or correlation to our region, but there is an upward/increasing trend to at least start building heat into the southern states. I loved how in your earlier posts you outlined 850 temperatures. Often times, we focus too much on the H5 look and (focusing on summer months here) and we presume that no major ridge in the East signal means no heat - that isn't true. I feel like many of our bigger heat patterns (especially the more active ones with convection) occur when we have a strong ridge in the lower-levels with less ridging in the mid-levels and more of a trough signal. This helps to transport the airmass from the Southwest or southern Plains into our region and increases the likelihood of this airmass keeping it's integrity - and we see this by advection of EML plumes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 So close to the first 80 of the year. Should be able to do it this afternoon. Nice the dew points are comfortable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 Warm one. We roastin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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