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May 2024 Discussion - Welcome to Severe Season!!!!


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Are we ever going to kick this onshore flow regime? Seems like it's perpetually a week away. Kinda like in winter, where the "favorable pattern" is always close but keeps getting pushed LoL. 

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49 minutes ago, NoCORH4L said:

Are we ever going to kick this onshore flow regime? Seems like it's perpetually a week away. Kinda like in winter, where the "favorable pattern" is always close but keeps getting pushed LoL. 

Today and tomorrow are warm. Probably Wednesday too. Questionable after.

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Today should be demonstratively different than the general early October vibe of yesterday's 58 F under pancaking skies.

It was 45 at dawn here and it's now 59 ... scratch that, 60 averaging those home station sites within a mile of mi case. We've surpassed yesterday's highs at 8:15 in the morning already.

Satellite trends suggest the day's not free of cloud burden entirely. It may end up averaging partly sunny by day's end, but with 850s +6C by 21Z, some 7 warmer than yesterday, while the wind is off-shore, all taking place under 70% of May insolation, probably sends the Ts a couple ticks higher than machine.  MAV is 71 at BDL and FIT, and 69 at ASH.  Good day to test the MOS.  MET is in the upper 60s at those sites so probably a slam dunk from that source.  

Incidentally, the MET has touched 80 now for BDL and FIT for tomorrow.  First time we've seen machine numbers that warm. 

Beyond all this ... the cinema of the models has definitively changed tenors now, losing entirely those cold plumes S of 50 N.   The frontal system passages I looked at in the GFS and Euro, albeit different and poor continuity and probably changing placement in space and time in future runs, one aspect that remains in common from both sources is that the air mass before, and immediately behind each one is not appreciably cooler than normal at 850 mb.  These systems were behaving more like late spring events should, more like temperature speed bumps while clouds/precip smear through. But behind them in particularly, 552 dm thicknesses pervade the GL-OV-NE ... keeping hour hands warm in the 'glove' heh. 

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Looks like the mean variance will be 68 to 82 instead of 54 to 68

MEX is back into the 70s Thur/Fri after a upper 60s Wednesday.   68ish Sat and 75 to 80 Sun/Mon?  Good time to stroll through lilac aromas. 

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2 hours ago, NoCORH4L said:

Are we ever going to kick this onshore flow regime? Seems like it's perpetually a week away. Kinda like in winter, where the "favorable pattern" is always close but keeps getting pushed LoL. 

It's been a slog N-E of HFD and particularly ORH...

Interestingly, there's been some variance in the objective data. For example, HFD is above normal for Apr and so far also in May.   This has not apparently been true for CON/ASH/FIT-BED and BOS.  There's been some sort of meso-beta scaled reality in there is that is a negative variant relative to the broader regional mean for the last 45 days.  We were discussing this yesterday...

  It's an interesting debate between verification and subjective appeal.  I'm sure Kevin has a boner for this spring based upon the environment the cat sees while hiding head inside the paper bag of Tolland... whole ass and tail sticking out, thinking that's the world in there.  Lol   ( any time to tease Kevina is a good time - cheers ).

 

 

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Somewhat of an irony... now that the pattern seems to be morphed warmer, any day with a west wind will likely drive the FIT-LWM/ ASH- Manchester NH region the warmest of anywhere NE of NYC.  

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~80% of days since 1st day of spring have been with -NAO. This is flipped from winter. 

-NAO incoming, again, beginning this weekend - good news is (right now) looks significant enough to send the worst (easterly flow) down to the Mid Atlantic and we can 60-70 in mid May behind the door, with surface HP overhead..... 

Hedge in favor of dry, seasonable temps and low dews in NNE. You guys in far southern sections--good time for a vacation.... 

 

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anyone E of ~ Monadnocks to Worcester Hills may not end the afternoon quite this mild.

Pretty intense sea-breeze boundary is carving W under the fair weather CU field on hi res vis.  The wind fields in the interior here are very light - may not be enough to stop that colder air with its attendant distant low -tide aroma from penetrating inland

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7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

+1 for dendrite

IMG_7355.jpeg
IMG_7354.jpeg

You'll be warmer than him tomorrow most likely ... SW wind has a subtle d-slope aspect to it, no? 

I figure Concord to Manchester, Lowell/Lawrence, me to Fitchburg and down to metrowest of Boston are gonna cook.

Probably 83 and over MOS.  As suspected, prior to the s-breeze arrival we bested machine by 1 to 3 deg today.  Tomorrow looks like a slam dunk

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Lightning blasted birch in the intense storm of this past Wednesday, on Springfield College's East Campus. Though a slim tree dwarfed by towering oaks and white pine, it took the strike instead of one of them.

IMG_6285.thumb.jpeg.538ece5a3f5ed8c8c212509f4a14e540.jpeg

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Certainly not the 75 to 85 summer pattern some have claimed but it could be worse.

 

"Mild and mainly dry today with some uncertainty regarding how warm Wednesday will be. Heading into a cloudier and unsettled weather pattern for late in the week into the weekend, as a series of slow-moving upper level disturbances move through Southern New England. While it is not likely to be raining the entire period,at least hit or miss showers can`t be ruled out at any time.Temperatures for late in the week into the weekend trend slightly cooler than normal on high temperatures and milder than normal on the lows.&&

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1 hour ago, kdxken said:

Certainly not the 75 to 85 summer pattern some have claimed but it could be worse.

 

"Mild and mainly dry today with some uncertainty regarding how warm Wednesday will be. Heading into a cloudier and unsettled weather pattern for late in the week into the weekend, as a series of slow-moving upper level disturbances move through Southern New England. While it is not likely to be raining the entire period,at least hit or miss showers can`t be ruled out at any time.Temperatures for late in the week into the weekend trend slightly cooler than normal on high temperatures and milder than normal on the lows.&&

Yup. Theme of the winter continues. 

Except for the temps, they really have no idea about the sensible weather though. Weekend could end up being a disaster or serviceable.

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2 hours ago, kdxken said:

Certainly not the 75 to 85 summer pattern some have claimed but it could be worse.

 

"Mild and mainly dry today with some uncertainty regarding how warm Wednesday will be. Heading into a cloudier and unsettled weather pattern for late in the week into the weekend, as a series of slow-moving upper level disturbances move through Southern New England. While it is not likely to be raining the entire period,at least hit or miss showers can`t be ruled out at any time.Temperatures for late in the week into the weekend trend slightly cooler than normal on high temperatures and milder than normal on the lows.&&

Looks like a nice stretch of 75-80+ temps for CT this week. 

 

8_Day_Inland (2).jpg

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