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May 2024 Discussion - Welcome to Severe Season!!!!


weatherwiz
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54 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

If it’s not +5, meh.

lol we are running just shy of +4 up here at all three BTV/MVL/MPV and people are like “it’s been a cool May”…

If we get a legit -3 type month (any month of the year) people will think the world is ending.

Its comical how far people’s tolerances or impressions of normal temperatures have strayed.

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4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

lol we are running just shy of +4 up here at all three BTV/MVL/MPV and people are like “it’s been a cool May”…

If we get a legit -3 type month (any month of the year) people will think the world is ending.

Its comical how far people’s tolerances or impressions of normal temperatures have strayed.

I looked ahead for the next two weeks and was unimpressed. 

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2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

I was thinking about that… it seems like just the same air mass at 850mb as we had all winter, ha.

Even out through tomorrow… +2 to -2C at 850mb was basically winter this year, but just with the May sun angle now as you said.

IMG_9593.thumb.png.39c81cf06a843602d00047064bd9ebfe.png

Nick had an inch of slushy snow up in St. John’s, NF last night. 

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I'd suggest taking it in D1-5.

Predictive skill is so low right now it's all but baseless to either like or dislike any synoptic table setting out there beyond that range.

Today, for example, is an utter correction of the abysmal depiction of this weekend given as near as just this last Tuesday. 

The other thing is that the PNA is very negative and staying that way through the next 10 days to 2 weeks.  It's certainly possible that shoe would fall and some rising heights over the eastern continent materializes/corrects.  

-PNA correlative pattern seems to be suppressed somehow, either legitimately or just model enhanced fantasies to consummately regress seasonal change - probably some of both. 

 

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2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

lol we are running just shy of +4 up here at all three BTV/MVL/MPV and people are like “it’s been a cool May”…

If we get a legit -3 type month (any month of the year) people will think the world is ending.

Its comical how far people’s tolerances or impressions of normal temperatures have strayed.

Only +0.5 here after 2 BN days, but we've gotten only 25% of available sunshine thru yesterday and today looks to finish as mostly cloudy. 
Last night's aurora display was the best I've seen.  Even in Fort Kent where we'd see it more frequently, the lights were only in the northern part of the sky.  Last night it was all around with some of the best in the southern half of the sky.  Only very pale pink and green, though a long exposure pic would likely show a lot more.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I looked ahead for the next two weeks and was unimpressed. 

Yeah wasn’t necessarily talking about you, just quoted it.  Just how out of whack the general public is theses days with regards to “normal”… especially considering it’s the “new” 30-year normals too the past couple years.

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3 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah wasn’t necessarily talking about you, just quoted it.  Just how out of whack the general public is theses days with regards to “normal”… especially considering it’s the “new” 30-year normals too the past couple years.

Oh I know. People have adjusted to expect 85 ad a constant by May 1. 
 

I meant my overall take. Didn’t look exactly warm to me overall. Sure they’ll be nice days.

 

That said have not looked at 12z stuff today.

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah colder 850s down S/E.

I’m pretty sure there was a period during the laurentian ice sheet receding when NW NE was down to bare ground while Massachusetts still had a mile of ice in place …

It’s become too common to curl colder air like this … probably always was like this 

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I’m pretty sure there was a period during the laurentian ice sheet receding when NW NE was down to bare ground while Massachusetts still had a mile of ice in place …

It’s become too common to curl colder air like this … probably always was like this 

Yeah especially this time of year.  Feel like autumn it’s more likely NW, more likely SE in spring.  Follows the ocean thermals?

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May is a snooze fest. Can't complain too much about this year. Couple degrees below normal with a few inches of rain nothing outrageous. Next week doesn't look bad. Might even be decent if things break the right way.

 

Screenshot_20240511_214342_Google.jpg

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8 minutes ago, kdxken said:

May is a snooze fest. Can't complain too much about this year. Couple degrees below normal with a few inches of rain nothing outrageous. Next week doesn't look bad. Might even be decent if things break the right way.

Yeah you Logan folks haven’t had the best month.  Crazy you guys are -1.5 there near the water while ORH to BDL is like +2 to +4.

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5 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Furnace month!

Snowpack slightly below normal at elevation thanks to the positive departures.  23” on an average 30”.

Photo from Spruce Peak, across the Notch and 2 miles from the recorded Mansfield Stake. It takes a lot of thermal energy to melt the QPF rich snowpack above 3,000ft… even in a mild spring.

IMG_9603.jpeg.b475ea807a7d2edcf464c1d9830239da.jpeg

IMG_9601.thumb.jpeg.08cc9e0c0106ce4b8c0267dee234bb9d.jpeg  

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11 hours ago, amarshall said:

Any chance of aurora tonight.? My app says no and the internet says yes . 

It was there - spectacular pics from Eustis, 40 miles to our NW - but so were thin clouds that pretty much blocked the show.

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14 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah especially this time of year.  Feel like autumn it’s more likely NW, more likely SE in spring.  Follows the ocean thermals?

Maybe ...  I dunno.   I almost prefer to go with which ever pounds the butt of desire most in violation

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The Euro was warmer run overall per the 00z.   It starts out where we've been but ends up as though having reset the base-line by the end of this run. 

There's even some semblance of a ridge trying to formulate E of 110 W across the mid lat continent - still needs some growth to become a real heat player.  We'll see if that continues to emerge.  There's some suggestion of it in the GFS - hard to believe ... - but as usual, it's ablating the top of it and keeping the westerlies/polar jet S almost like it's templated to do so...  :blink:

Both of those model's ens -based telecons have a robust -PNA signaled over the next 10 days.  I mentioned this before ... and that the erstwhile runs have not been very interested in honoring what that should mean. In fact, some of these runs looked like +PNAs and completely divorced.   Maybe they're coming around. 

I also suspect that low along the M/A Tues/Wed... might be a little over producing in all guidance.  The isohypses at 500 mb standard metric intervals have no closing(ed) surface; it's merely a broadly opened trough with really only 1.5 contours, and the wind flags make it difficult to even find an actual wind max embedded in that. It's like 20 or 25 kts at 500 mb?   But the models end up with a 3 or 4 contoured surface low with near gale onshore flow into NJ and a stiff east breeze here penetrating all the way to Albany.  That seems unbalanced.  Some models even bring sheet rain in here.  That seems a bit overly sensitive for whats translating through that region aloft.   We'll see

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10 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah you Logan folks haven’t had the best month.  Crazy you guys are -1.5 there near the water while ORH to BDL is like +2 to +4.

Some weird distributions with the east flow/cloud cover at times. MHT and CON are both marginally BN mtd. 

Both were as average as it gets for April at 0.1-0.2F. So, locally to SNH its been a pretty normal spring. I think the lack of higher end warmth helps drive the perception that it's been a cooler. I'd sign for a couple days of 80s right now. 

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10 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah you Logan folks haven’t had the best month.  Crazy you guys are -1.5 there near the water while ORH to BDL is like +2 to +4.

and that's my point.  who the f are Logan folk?  

do we mean the person stepping out of their ride and removing their luggage from their trunk, exposed to the North Atlantic for 30 seconds just before disappearing into the bowls of the facility?    

so glad we have a society -based official ob for those forgotten honor-lorn souls  

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