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May 2024 Discussion - Welcome to Severe Season!!!!


weatherwiz
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36 here.  probably car topped a little at that temperature.  

winter's not over - sorry.    It's been 80 in February more than once in the past 8 years, and 70 to 80 countless times in Feb-Mar.  We get obscenely warm in winters now as part of the CC charm.  It can't be summer when your car topping.   Doesn't matter what the calendar says.

Think of it this way ... If you took our recent absenteeism winters, and shown May intensity sun through them ... you'd have what we have had over the last 2 weeks. 

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8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Think of it this way ... If you took our recent absenteeism winters, and shown May intensity sun through them ... you'd have what we have had over the last 2 weeks. 

I was thinking about that… it seems like just the same air mass at 850mb as we had all winter, ha.

Even out through tomorrow… +2 to -2C at 850mb was basically winter this year, but just with the May sun angle now as you said.

IMG_9593.thumb.png.39c81cf06a843602d00047064bd9ebfe.png

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Might remind some of you that the models ... particularly the GFS but they all took some turn/guilt in this, had 3 or 4 consecutive days of Labradorian anal blow, scheduled to begin roughly yesterday, then to last through the weekend. This was 4 or 5 day's worth of model cycles ago.

It seems there's a lot of triggering in here based upon very superficial causes when it comes to the mere complexion of what is immediately being seen.  It almost comes off as actually wanting ( perhaps 'needfully' ) to be let down.

Like, I'm new to the site, huh?   LOL.  

Still, seeing this particular flavor of psycho-babble that goes on in here, I still sometimes muse over it. One could accelerate through a program toward a psychology PHD with the trove of data they have to work with in this malcontent seeking, a-bomb member social media depot. 

 

 

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It'll squeeze toward 60 ... maybe even a ping high of 64 over a some back patios and parking lots out of the wind if it stays this sunny.

OT but ... there's been a lot of papers about the aerosol cleansing roll in the global heat burst phenomenon that took place in the spring and summer last year, whence unilaterally ... everywhere nearly simultaneously,  air, land and sea, lurched by nearly a half degree C ( chk that).

Maybe, maybe not.  But one thing I have noticed since last summer, an increase in frequency of these moments, if not whole days where there is exceptionally deep prism blue sky.   If you look N overhead, out of the sun's glare ... it's like staring into blue infinity.  

That kind of clarity ... I have this distinct impression that's new since last year, too.  It seems that kind of sky condition and quality of 'blueness' had slowly adulterated over the years;  at least for me, I had forgotten.   It's return may be related to all these nations - particularly China - greatly reducing sulfer dioxide emissions along with other aerosols.

Just a thought.

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I'm a little more optimistic than Scott.

Like I just said, ... this weekend, albeit still on the cool side for some preferences, is vastly improved over a lot of modeling implications from short days ago.  Not sure why these other perturbations don't end up proving model-biased, too.

The models have trouble with seasonal progression/change ... they consummately attempt to regress the season backward beyond any given D5, even more demonstratively so in their complexions the deeper the synoptic range.  

The GFS is the worst offender of this. But I just saw the Euro three times plunk sub 540 dm thicknesses at least as far S as ORD's latitude, in it's D9, only to correct it out within 2 days of runs to just annoying scale.

This weekend's correction toward more fairer and dry ... indirectly is part of that.  Because part of seasonal progression at this time of year, is weakening the embedded atmospheric wave amplitudes.  Which in turn, mollifies some of the dire implications and normalizes things.  You have to think in nuances - this is not an all or nothing thing with this.  It's shades of gray to use that cliche.   The models seem to almost invariably lean toward a darker shade than what actually takes place at this time of year.   

( of course this is probably too rational for this support group's psychosis need for 'oh god; not again' isms )

 

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