Typhoon Tip Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 No offense to Ryan but some of us mentioned that Wednesday looked interesting 4 days ago ... Folks are getting used to disregarding some posters. boo hoo LOL it's all good. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 4 hours ago, moneypitmike said: After-the-fact post.......driving home around 4:30 yesterday, as heavy a rain I've experienced between Dudley and Oxford, MA. Great lightning---inncluding one that struck about 50 yards from my car. Road was compoletely flooded. Still managed to get my DD drivethru. We were stuck in the BD air mass all throughout the event...right into the evening, and couldn't be liberated from it until the whole system passed off and gave it no choice but to mix out. When that warned cell came through around 4:30 pm to our S ( Ayer Ma), we had dead still air slate gray sky down pour with massive rain drops but no thunder. Didn't even hear any distant low decible, probably because the dense cool air. That's all we got from anything yesterday. It was all about where the warm front penetrated - along and S of that boundary had a party. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 9 Author Share Posted May 9 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: No offense to Ryan but some of us mentioned that Wednesday looked interesting 4 days ago ... Folks are getting used to disregarding some posters. boo hoo LOL it's all good. Let's hope we can keep the EML's coming. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Let's hope we can keep the EML's coming. Yeah, I saw you mention the EML around the time I posted that Wednesday looked interesting. I think that was 4 ...might have been 3 days ago. You may recall, I was telling you that there was possible warm intrusion into CT and that the helicity in the area look impressive while there was also a jet acceleration running by exit/entrance style N of the warm front. So the pieces were certainly there. The EML in concert with these synoptic advantages and away we go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 9 Author Share Posted May 9 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah, I saw you mention the EML around the time I posted that Wednesday looked interesting. I think that was 4 ...might have been 3 days ago. You may recall, I was telling you that there was possible warm intrusion into CT and that the helicity in the area look impressive while there was also a jet acceleration running by exit/entrance style N of the warm front. So the pieces were certainly there. The EML in concert with these synoptic advantages and away we go. Yup...we had a little back and forth going about the warm front and how far into the region it would push. I wish I spent more time looking into it but had alot of other stuff going on. Everything looked pretty impressive but I just harped too much on drier air aloft. But looking back I should have known that would be a non issue given the strength of the forcing approaching and increasing 850 theta e I think it was. it's not too often either we get supercellular storms riding along warm front boundaries in these parts. Even with some of the stableness around, I believe much of the storm inflow was coming from within the stronger warm sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 Getting to the time of the month where summer preps are almost done, pools begin to open. Let's get thru this week and then start the party. Still not planted quite yet but hopefully things look good last two weeks of May. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Back in the days when it snowed https://x.com/nwsboston/status/1788524313634816060?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg I think it was 2002 we had snow in the valley in mid May just a coating but super cool to see that late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Back in the days when it snowed https://x.com/nwsboston/status/1788524313634816060?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg Pickles chased 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 So yeah ... GFS seems to have come around to the pivot S idea with the weekend synopsis' .... sparing us inundating cold rains and mist... but, the trade off isn't very balmy either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 53 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Pickles chased How is he? Haven’t heard from him in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 59 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: So yeah ... GFS seems to have come around to the pivot S idea with the weekend synopsis' .... sparing us inundating cold rains and mist... but, the trade off isn't very balmy either. I'll take low 60's and run with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 6 minutes ago, jbenedet said: I'll take low 60's and run with it. Yup, exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Pickles chased Where has Pickles been? I would have thought he would have chased those big snowstorms we had up here the last week of March and the beginning of April. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 16 minutes ago, mreaves said: Where has Pickles been? I would have thought he would have chased those big snowstorms we had up here the last week of March and the beginning of April. He’s around, we chatted about some of those storms off forum. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 4 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Getting to the time of the month where summer preps are almost done, pools begin to open. Let's get thru this week and then start the party. Still not planted quite yet but hopefully things look good last two weeks of May. I was just telling my wife that I think we revert to summer mode beginning next week. We’re on the edge and hallelujah! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 9 Author Share Posted May 9 As much as I am dying to get into a weather pattern where we get consistent warmth I think we have quite a bit to go until we get there. We've been in such a shit pattern and its just slowly eroding away, however, its just rotting so we'll left with its dead corpse. There is nothing really driving a change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: As much as I am dying to get into a weather pattern where we get consistent warmth I think we have quite a bit to go until we get there. We've been in such a shit pattern and its just slowly eroding away, however, its just rotting so we'll left with its dead corpse. There is nothing really driving a change. not sure .. I'd argue the end of May looks warm and the only thing holding it back from potentially our first taste of HHH is the tendency for west based -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 1 hour ago, weathafella said: I was just telling my wife that I think we revert to summer mode beginning next week. We’re on the edge and hallelujah! We’ve been discussing that with 75-85 next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 9 Author Share Posted May 9 8 minutes ago, ma blizzard said: not sure .. I'd argue the end of May looks warm and the only thing holding it back from potentially our first taste of HHH is the tendency for west based -NAO. perhaps end of May sure...but I was focused on the next few weeks really. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 21 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: As much as I am dying to get into a weather pattern where we get consistent warmth I think we have quite a bit to go until we get there. We've been in such a shit pattern and its just slowly eroding away, however, its just rotting so we'll left with its dead corpse. There is nothing really driving a change. This fella agrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 9 Author Share Posted May 9 1 minute ago, kdxken said: This fella agrees. That's what I'm thinking. We're going to get our nice days, and some of us will get more than others and that's just the nature of our region's climo but I think we have at least another few weeks before we can say that type of weather becomes more consistent. I would not be surprised if the switch flipped in the flash of an eye. I mean that's what kinda of seems to happen here anyways but we'll probably go from 50's and 60's (with our days of 70's) right to 80's and torch spots hitting 90 with humidity. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 24 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: perhaps end of May sure...but I was focused on the next few weeks really. Agreed, next 2 weeks is back and forth and final week of the month is more sustained warmth 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 52 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: As much as I am dying to get into a weather pattern where we get consistent warmth I think we have quite a bit to go until we get there. We've been in such a shit pattern and its just slowly eroding away, however, its just rotting so we'll left with its dead corpse. There is nothing really driving a change. There kind of is though ... maybe this is hard to dispute when all sources the compute the teleconnections have some variation that does not argue this from CPC, That's actually huge signal for warmth over continental mid latitudes. What's puzzling is neither the operational runs, nor their respective ensemble means are being very representative of that warm signal. I was half thinking the CPC needed to 'recalibrate' or something, but other sources are similar. Maybe the numerical field is sort of detecting the non-linear wave function/forcing ... which is inherently always masked by the linear - what we see. In other words, "lurking" ... perhaps in wait of the linear to come toward constructive interference.. Supposition, but you can kind of see that 'trying' to happen if one pays attention to the run to run cinema over time. Which I am crushingly nerdy enough to do LOL 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LSC97wxnut Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 Might not last long, but suddenly turned into a beaut of an afternoon in Needham. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 14 minutes ago, LSC97wxnut said: Might not last long, but suddenly turned into a beaut of an afternoon in Needham. Overall today was much better than predicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCORH4L Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: As much as I am dying to get into a weather pattern where we get consistent warmth I think we have quite a bit to go until we get there. We've been in such a shit pattern and its just slowly eroding away, however, its just rotting so we'll left with its dead corpse. There is nothing really driving a change. Been the theme of our springs for years now. We're piss warm in winter, so the rubber band snaps back in spring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 9 Author Share Posted May 9 20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: There kind of is though ... maybe this is hard to dispute when all sources the compute the teleconnections have some variation that does not argue this from CPC, That's actually huge signal for warmth over continental mid latitudes. What's puzzling is neither the operational runs, nor their respective ensemble means are being very representative of that warm signal. I was half thinking the CPC needed to 'recalibrate' or something, but other sources are similar. Maybe the numerical field is sort of detecting the non-linear wave function/forcing ... which is inherently always masked by the linear - what we see. In other words, "lurking" ... perhaps in wait of the linear to come toward constructive interference.. Supposition, but you can kind of see that 'trying' to happen if one pays attention to the run to run cinema over time. Which I am crushingly nerdy enough to do LOL Funny you post this because I did dap into the charts to see what the forecasts were for the NAO/PNA. I thought that was noteworthy, but like you said ens means were not as representative as what you would expect to see in terms of pattern across the country. One thing came to mind: As you know, the placement and structure of the anomaly centers are more important than just the chart. Here is the 12z GEFS 6-10 day mean. Excuse my terrible drawing skills but I'll try to explain what I'm getting at: 1. I wonder if the chart is being skewed by the highly anomalous High pressure center northwest of the Aleutians and the trough jut north of Hawaii. I believe this is the far western edge of the PNA domain but this could be providing enough weight to make the chart "quite negative". 2. Getting into the placement of the anomaly centers, you can see we might not be far off from significantly warmer temperatures. If the high center was more so over the Aleutians or maybe just south and the trough centered over Hawaii, would that maybe act to flatten the ridge there across the PAC NW and open the door to connect the trough over the central states with the western Arctic domain or at least tug the trough west? With the mean trough in the West as opposed to the central we may be able connect the ridge off the coast and bring that west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: We’ve been discussing that with 75-85 next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 6 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: No offense to Ryan but some of us mentioned that Wednesday looked interesting 4 days ago ... Folks are getting used to disregarding some posters. boo hoo LOL it's all good. None taken! This one was really well modeled... EMLs always make life better 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 7 hours ago, drstuess said: Hail here was solid. I did not get outside and grab any pics, but my neighbor sent these over this morning. And this from local fb Very impressive. Where are you located? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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