Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,598
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    PublicWorks143
    Newest Member
    PublicWorks143
    Joined

May 2024 Discussion - Welcome to Severe Season!!!!


weatherwiz
 Share

Recommended Posts

Watching the hi res vis loop this hour and comparing that to surface obs through upstate NY, there seems 0 way to prevent the warm front from blasting in.  yet, it won't move.

ah yes.  New England at it's physical finest

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

this may be the culprit 

image.thumb.png.1ed3721242185785aa37c2d4bdc36291.png

yeah, that's how New England works

there's 2 slices to the atmospere that apparently decouple entirely at times.  when they do ... you get sat and obs and conventional metrics not exposing the lowest layer below the 'floor'

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-New_England-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

that field of blasting cu is passing right over the closed circulation like there's nothing there.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm on the fence ...

On one hand, the GFS rages on with an amplitude bias that surpasses all other amp bias' across all guidance, that kicks in around 96 hours.  The flow is slowing ( hemisphere ) and I suspect that it's amplitude bias shifts <-  ...etc.   Lot of intuitive experience with this guidance.   Plus, the GGEM is noted ( I mentioned that myself earlier) and would make sense.  It has good continuity between 00z and 12z, where the GFS is all over the place. I  just think the GFS trips over it's own amplitude fantasies. 

On the other hand, pure experience.   New England's unique p.o.s. spring climate cannot be discounted.

Pistol to the head I suspect the GGEM is closer to right with some caveats perhaps. 

One other aspect that's seasonally heading toward the back burner, but the teleonnectors are in aggregate a warm basis for the next 10 days to 2 week.  At some point that may and probably should begin to present in the guidance. 

GFS/GEFS is coming around to GEM/EURO view for this weekend, but not without kickin' and screamin'.

 

 

 

 

94e2eace-ba19-4d81-bf9c-58f786650c12.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Really nice booms coming from just to the north.  Sounds like summer, ha.

IMG_9572.jpeg.d4297c14633462210d4e436ed304bb3f.jpeg

Got back from the dentist in Burlington about an hour ago and there was actually some clearing and blue skies visible.  I guess I wasn't really expecting to see that much at all today.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Started to hint at brightening up here at this end of Rt 2 in N-NE Mass but with those anvils now capping that'll pretty much close the book on any meaningful sun sparing the day here.

Different world in CT/Western MA ...  pretty classic SNE butt bangin' day. 

Tomorrow might actually be decent.   I'm wondering if the models are too stingy with blue slots and sky lights given the general synopsis.  I could see it being partly sunny mid day.  That would also goose the T's a little too.  Course, ...that could cause some pancaking. 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...