May 2024 Discussion - Welcome to Severe Season!!!!

[weatherwiz]

8 hours ago, CT Rain said:

No post from Wiz about tomorrow's severe threat? Nice EML in place! 

It's an overall decent setup but I didn't like how much dry air arrives in the wake of this morning stuff. Though it does look like there is some moistening later this afternoon. Also looked like a bit of a cap around 600-400mb. 

59 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Right on western CTs doorstep now... although severe may be a stretch

There is two round potential today...this morning stuff and then potential for a few strong storms to develop later this afternoon.

[radiator]

The lightning activity in western CT looks better on the map than it appears to be "in person".

Still, waking up to a thunderstorm is a nice touch...

 

 

[Modfan2]

Looks like a decent line, does it stay together as it comes east?

[Spanks45]

1 crack of thunder, enough to wake me up and remind me that I have to take the dog out. Thankfully the heavy rain only lasted for 10 minutes. All the leaves and green this morning...the flora thinks the seasons have changed at least

[weatherwiz]

Crazy stuff around Kalamazoo, MI last night. Heartbreaking 

[weatherwiz]

It's pretty wild how dark the sky is. Looks like something you would see in a severe thunderstorm.

[weatherwiz]

Bird taking shelter.

 

[Spanks45]

7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It's pretty wild how dark the sky is. Looks like something you would see in a severe thunderstorm.

Impressive rainfall rates with this last batch...has to be pushing an inch of rain this morning

Seasons of rain continues it seems....I fully expect it to not rain from July to September, law of averages has to take over at some point, right?

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Spanks45 said:

Impressive rainfall rates with this last batch...has to be pushing an inch of rain this morning

Seasons of rain continues it seems....I fully expect it to not rain from July to September, law of averages has to take over at some point, right?

It's been wild for sure, not just the amount of rain but with some of the rainfall rates observed. 

[Brewbeer]

14 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It's pretty wild how dark the sky is. Looks like something you would see in a severe thunderstorm.

got so dark the inverter for the solar panels on the roof shut down

[Damage In Tolland]

This is how you’d draw it up . Yes please !

https://x.com/gr2aa2azogoblue/status/1788055579396620784?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This is how you’d draw it up . Yes please !

https://x.com/gr2aa2azogoblue/status/1788055579396620784?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

If it can get all of my trees to come down while guaranteeing no damage to the house…I’d sign up. 

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

It's an overall decent setup but I didn't like how much dry air arrives in the wake of this morning stuff. Though it does look like there is some moistening later this afternoon. Also looked like a bit of a cap around 600-400mb. 

There is two round potential today...this morning stuff and then potential for a few strong storms to develop later this afternoon.

yeah upton notes dry air and a cap later today so just isolated stuff and inland.   Had two quick downpours here-not much rain only .25 but washed the pollen away

[weatherwiz]

wow I just realized the 3km (6z run) was wayyyy off with the timing of this morning stuff. But I guess it at least caught on to it. IIRC correctly it wasn't as enthused with this AM stuff. 

 

[Cold Miser]

45 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This is how you’d draw it up . Yes please !

https://x.com/gr2aa2azogoblue/status/1788055579396620784?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

If he was looking to remove those trees, he just saved him self $1,000's of dollars.  

[Ginx snewx]

Took my client to his Mom's in Norwich Holy rain, pulled off the highway and took backroads.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

9 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

If he was looking to remove those trees, he just saved him self $1,000's of dollars.  

True but the cleanup will cost. I don’t think home insurance will cover it either…depends on the policy I suppose.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

True but the cleanup will cost. I don’t think home insurance will cover it either…depends on the policy I suppose.

That's when you put up signs, "free wood if you have a chainsaw"  

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

That's when you put up signs, "free wood if you have a chainsaw"  

I tried that after the May 2018 spinner and no bites because everyone else in the area had trees down…plenty of supply lol.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Crazy stuff around Kalamazoo, MI last night. Heartbreaking 

It's my home town when I was boy 

my family members still living around there are hearkening back to May 1980, when a (then) EF3 tornado carved a canyon right down Michigan Ave through the heart of the city.  

I was at the gym yesterday when on the television I caught sight of the tornado watch graphics. At the time, the radar had cluster of severe cells moving up out of NW Indiana.  I went onto my phone and savvy rad sites saw two clear hooking super cells within that group - holy shit.  One went right over the city, after ( thank goodness) it had already put down the finger of god, but spared 1980 by lifting the vortex into the meso just in time.  My sister lives about a mile S of the city center and had golf ball hail do a solid number on prized shrubbery - she's very grateful. 

The other went SE of Kalamazoo County, up through Calhoun/Battle Creek - smaller city and home of Kellogg cereal to the East of the 'Zoo. No word on that one - it may have stayed entirely elevated.

My initial take was that both would miss where my family members reside. I must admit to feeling a little irresponsible and very, very lucky, because that meso went right over the city.  I'm hoping some vids will surface to confirm... Anyway, it was close, too close to have not phoned my sisters and father as someone that saw these super cells in the vicinity.   I have some guilt - blessed that it's not confirmed! 

I remember 1999.  I was working ... WSC I think it was called.  They don't exist any more. Weather Services Corporation, I think it was.  I saw the very first radar blip of the famed F5 tornado near Oklahoma City, when it was some 10s of miles upstream.  Within 5 or so sweeps, it was already rotating.  I remember just looking at it, and the path along which it was extrapolating, and one word occurred in the internal monologue:  "Jesus"  ...within an hour it was a 75 dbz core with rancid abortion coat hanger hook, replete with debris ball, going right over dense township labels on the map beneath the radar scope.  Several of us Mets were by then watching the cinema from our seats that evening - crazy.

It's tough... when you see and know ahead, and you think about the population that cannot see,lacking enough of any background to know ... probably just carrying on oblivious while the home denudation bomb blithely arrives.   Mind you, this is prior to iPhones.  In 1999, society was still vastly less individually informed.  There were no loud pings on any devices, warning people of impending calamity like now.

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I tried that after the May 2018 spinner and no bites because everyone else in the area had trees down…plenty of supply lol.

Some friends of mine from school were renting out a house in Newtown and a tree limb punctured a hole in the roof and they weren't able to stay there until it was repaired. Luckily there landlord had a friend who did that sort of work. His friend told him there were weeks long backlog of orders to remove trees from yards. In fact, he said it was so bad businesses we're turning people away lol. Lots of people in that industry got rich from that event. People were being quoted $15,000+ just to remove a single tree lol

[kdxken]

50 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

If it can get all of my trees to come down while guaranteeing no damage to the house…I’d sign up. 

I can take care of it  You don't really need that chimney do you?

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's my home town when I was boy 

my family members still living around there are hearkening back to May 1980, when a (then) EF3 tornado carved a canyon right down Michigan Ave through the heart of the city.  

I was at the gym yesterday when on the television I caught sight of the tornado watch graphics. At the time, the radar had cluster of severe cells moving up out of NW Indiana.  I went onto my phone and savvy rad sites saw two clear hooking super cells within that group - holy shit.  One went right over the city, after ( thank goodness) it had already put down the finger of god, but spared 1980 by lifting the vortex into the meso just in time.  My sister lives about a mile S of the city center and had golf ball hails do a solid number on prized shrubbery. 

The other went SE of Kalamazoo County, up through Calhoun/Battle Creek - smaller city and home of Kellog cereal to the East of the 'Zoo. 

My initial take was that both would miss where my family members reside, but I'm not feeling a little irresponsible and very, very lucky, because that meso went right over the city.  I'm hoping some vids will surface to confirm... Anyway, it was close, too close to have not phoned my sisters and father as someone that saw these super cells in the vicinity.   I have some guilt - blessed that it's not confirmed! 

I remember 1999.  I was working ... WSC I think it was called.  They don't exist any more. Weather Services Corporation, I think it was.  I saw the very first radar blip of the famed F5 tornado near Oklahoma City, when it was some 10s of miles upstream.  Within 5 or so sweeps, it was already rotating.  I remember look at it, and the path along which it was extrapolating, and one word occurred in the internal monologue:  "Jesus"  ...within an hour it was 75 dbz core with rancid abortion coat hanger hook replete with debris ball going right up dense townships on the map beneath the radar scope.  Several of us Mets were by then watching the cinema from our seats that evening - crazy.

It's tough... when you see and know ahead, and you think about the population that cannot see,lacking enough of any background to know ... probably just carrying on with home denudation bomb blithely arriving

That's super sad. 

That area of Michigan is rather wild. I don't know much about there climo but what is it that makes southwestern Michigan kind of a hot spot for these larger tornadoes? Is it just because of where they're positioned they tend to end up in a favorable overlap of high cape/shear with great forcing or is there some local terrain induced influences at play?

[kdxken]

17 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Took my client to his Mom's in Norwich Holy rain, pulled off the highway and took backroads.

Looks like many spots got close to an inch.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, kdxken said:

I can take care of it  You don't really need that chimney do you?

I don’t use the fireplace so the chimney can go…sure.

[NoCORH4L]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I don’t use the fireplace so the chimney can go…sure.

Why not? You had unlimited wood. Free heat! 

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

That's super sad. 

That area of Michigan is rather wild. I don't know much about there climo but what is it that makes southwestern Michigan kind of a hot spot for these larger tornadoes? Is it just because of where they're positioned they tend to end up in a favorable overlap of high cape/shear with great forcing or is there some local terrain induced influences at play?

I haven't read any studies but I think - my own supposition - there might be a relationship with the Lake Michigan boundary layer interface with the land over that area.  

When there is a S humid flow, with a west wind aloft, you have a deep layer helicity issue anyway ... but, think about having the Lake boundary, there ... it might enhance/give a boost to the SRH below the mesos.  Cooler, stable flow would back the llv wind slightly more westerly, with S winds immediately out ahead.  The interface provides an easy curl

Thing is...  Flint Michigan had a F4 monster the day before the Worcester 1953 event.  It was in fact the same synoptic package. But that's pretty far away from any such mechanism and unlikely related... 

There is a 24-hour Michigan correlation to Massachusetts specifically, btw ... Severe in southern Michigan tends to precede severe in SNE by 24s with fairly high coherence. 

Seems today we may miss though ... the clouds are not clearing behind our morning warm frontal ib burst.  we'll see.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I haven't read any studies but I think - my own supposition - is that it is related to the Lake Michigan boundary layer interface with the land.  

When there is a SW humid flow, with a west wind aloft, you have a deep layer helicity issue anyway ... but, think about having the Lake boundary, there ... it might enhance/give a boost to the SRH below the mesos. 

Thing is...  Flint Michigan had a F4 monster the day before the Worcester 1953 event.  It was in fact the same synoptic package.  There is a 24-hour Michigan correlation to Massachusetts specifically, btw ... Severe in southern Michigan tends to precede severe in SNE by 24s with fairly high coherence. 

Seems today we may miss though ... the clouds are not clearing behind our morning warm frontal ib burst.

ahh yes I have come across some info that the lake boundaries can act as an enhancer. I think there is a similar connection across western NY. I recall reading some studies which analyzed several tornadoes which eerily had nearly identical tracks. 

Also one big difference between MI and our area today is I believe they got into the warm sector whereas we won't. Also a bit early in the season here so the SE sfc flow (while aiding in the SRH) provides us with muck off the water. If we had this same setup in even another 3 weeks it probably would have been interesting. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

If it can get all of my trees to come down while guaranteeing no damage to the house…I’d sign up. 

That was ideal. It literally ripped every tree down but the house was fine. Even the flag stayed on the house . That’s my kind of damage . Let’s do it !

[Modfan2]

1.20 here in E CT with the first round.