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May 2024 Discussion - Welcome to Severe Season!!!!


weatherwiz
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3 hours ago, jbenedet said:

Looking at most guidance ex the GFS op you can see how odds favor decent weather. GEM makes most sense to me.

Even the 12z GEFS has the surface low SE of the BM by 12z Sat. Not buying bs IVT on the GFS.

I'm on the fence ...

On one hand, the GFS rages on with an amplitude bias that surpasses all other amp bias' across all guidance, that kicks in around 96 hours.  The flow is slowing ( hemisphere ) and I suspect that it's amplitude bias shifts <-  ...etc.   Lot of intuitive experience with this guidance.   Plus, the GGEM is noted ( I mentioned that myself earlier) and would make sense.  It has good continuity between 00z and 12z, where the GFS is all over the place. I  just think the GFS trips over it's own amplitude fantasies. 

On the other hand, pure experience.   New England's unique p.o.s. spring climate cannot be discounted.

Pistol to the head I suspect the GGEM is closer to right with some caveats perhaps. 

One other aspect that's seasonally heading toward the back burner, but the teleonnectors are in aggregate a warm basis for the next 10 days to 2 week.  At some point that may and probably should begin to present in the guidance. 

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42 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Love how everything fully leafed out since Mayorch 1. Full summer looking landscape over the last 7-10 days. Pollen disaster but nothing like a summer look and feel .

Can’t wait. Still sticks here 

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3 minutes ago, alex said:

Can’t wait. Still sticks here 

It really makes a difference in mood and ambience . Even in a day coming up like Friday with showers and 50’s. Knowing that next week is 75-85 with some dews coming .It helps get you thru the random nasty day this time of year. 

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20 minutes ago, alex said:

Can’t wait. Still sticks here 

Seen a decent advance the past two days here.  Still mainly sticks but buds are starting to open and can tell we are a couple more warm days away from an explosion of green.

Seems like it’s all going to go at once.

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Stunning day, topped out at 75.9°!

Explosion of green has commenced in my neck of the woods. Had a little explosion of red earlier this afternoon too, when I decided to put a little of my left hand in the path of a framing nailer. Didn't catch bone though, so all good. Only took about 5000 nails into the project to manage that for the first time. Don't recommend.

20240507_194751compressed.jpg

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42 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Seen a decent advance the past two days here.  Still mainly sticks but buds are starting to open and can tell we are a couple more warm days away from an explosion of green.

Seems like it’s all going to go at once.

We are a little behind that but I’ve seen some signs yesterday heading up to Canaan. My area always seems to run a bit late - may just be the elevation factor

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Just now, alex said:

We are a little behind that but I’ve seen some signs yesterday heading up to Canaan. My area always seems to run a bit late - may just be the elevation factor

Long wait up that way. But once it comes it's beautiful. Almost prettier than fall.

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4 minutes ago, alex said:

We are a little behind that but I’ve seen some signs yesterday heading up to Canaan. My area always seems to run a bit late - may just be the elevation factor

Yeah I’d say that sounds about right for 1500ft.  Last piles of snow just melted from those elevations not long ago.  Not going to go from patchy snow to leaves in two weeks time.

Down here in the valley we get the warm afternoons to heat the soil.

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It really makes a difference in mood and ambience . Even in a day coming up like Friday with showers and 50’s. Knowing that next week is 75-85 with some dews coming .It helps get you thru the random nasty day this time of year. 

85?? You should call NBC 10 and let this boob know  he's way off!  

 

Screenshot_20240507_212014_Chrome.jpg

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11 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Long wait up that way. But once it comes it's beautiful. Almost prettier than fall.

It is underrated for sure. It seems like every year I forget how many shades of green there can be until spring rolls around. 

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Just now, mreaves said:

It is underrated for sure. It seems like every year I forget how many shades of green there can be until spring rolls around. 

The first true sunny day with hills of neon light green canopy, it does rival fall foliage.  Just vibrant shades of fresh green.

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6 hours ago, CT Rain said:

No post from Wiz about tomorrow's severe threat? Nice EML in place! 

* A second round of scattered showers and t-storms develop this afternoon. A few strong to marginally severe storms possible, with large hail the primary threat
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1 hour ago, kdxken said:
* A second round of scattered showers and t-storms develop this afternoon. A few strong to marginally severe storms possible, with large hail the primary threat

This is a about what I expect. General thunderstorms may be a few decent ones this morning along the warm front. And then this afternoon there could be a few strong surface based ones, especially south of the pike closer to the warm sector.

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