weatherwiz Posted May 7 Author Share Posted May 7 17 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: Why can't every morning be like this? Clear skies, warm sun, no need for coats/jackets. 57⁰/52⁰ Definitely a top 5 morning out there....at least here Thought the same to myself when heading out the door earlier. Nearly perfect. Had a bit of a chill in the car so had some heat going, but also to clear the windshield of dew. Absolutely zero complaints about this morning. For those not blessed with this...sorry I guess. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 Coc’d 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 We flood? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 Thursday looks serviceable at least for some of the day. Partly sunny and mid 60's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: We flood? Look at the 00z version... less than half. It's all over the map. That second coastal/nor'easter spin up it's doing for Friday has been placed from NS to N of Maine to Cape Cod about every other run for the past 3 days. I guess what I'm getting at is that continuity being less than optimal doesn't lend to confidence that any one solution will turn out true. Which ...haha, backs us into 'hope' that none of them will be, and we'll instead have a nicer weekend - like the GGEM. Which isn't ideal, but is a helluva lot better than the GFS' misery grind. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 14 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: We flood? Sell.. nothing else has anything like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 Jeez, we got down to 36F at like 5:30am. Its already 60F at 9:15am. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 24 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Jeez, we got down to 36F at like 5:30am. Its already 60F at 9:15am. hybrid air mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: hybrid air mass Frosted car tops at sunup and shorts and T-shirts by the time the work day starts? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 7 Author Share Posted May 7 5 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Frosted car tops at sunup and shorts and T-shirts by the time the work day starts? Looks like the win probability for Bos/Fla during the 3rd last night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 Was toasty last night. 56. We summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 What a bust in OK last evening. Good for the residents at least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 Already up to 68 For all the dreary days we've had, this spring has featured many gems like today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 7 Author Share Posted May 7 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: What a bust in OK last evening. Good for the residents at least. IDK if it's just me but it seems like there has been a significant upward trend in I don't want to say hyping events, but using extreme wording. Now I get that many of these setups have had ingredients worthy of such potential but as you know there is much more to it than that. The overall environment yesterday was quite concerning but it looked as if the storm mode was going to be very messy. I wonder if alot of this is being driven by these AI driven products. There is that Nadocast thing that is always going around I think something else too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 7 Author Share Posted May 7 I don't think we see much develop tomorrow. It is very dry above 900mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Coc’d Kind of weather everyone loves. Get outside and enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 The oaks are getting there. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 65.1° already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 16 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: IDK if it's just me but it seems like there has been a significant upward trend in I don't want to say hyping events, but using extreme wording. Now I get that many of these setups have had ingredients worthy of such potential but as you know there is much more to it than that. The overall environment yesterday was quite concerning but it looked as if the storm mode was going to be very messy. I wonder if alot of this is being driven by these AI driven products. There is that Nadocast thing that is always going around I think something else too. I'd imagine it has to do with preparing people and they'd rather bust that way than make it seem like "eh, meh" and have a bunch of significant TOR events destroying cities or towns? Wouldn't severe weather out there be one of the weather types that you'd probably lean on the stronger end of wording compared to the overall set-up for public awareness? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 7 Author Share Posted May 7 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: I'd imagine it has to do with preparing people and they'd rather bust that way than make it seem like "eh, meh" and have a bunch of significant TOR events destroying cities or towns? Wouldn't severe weather out there be one of the weather types that you'd probably lean on the stronger end of wording compared to the overall set-up for public awareness? Communicating these types of events I'm sure is not easy, especially because you're dealing with a weather phenomena which is only impacting a small fraction of people compared to the overall geographic size where the potential exists. But the way I see it is, if you continue to use extreme wording time and time again, eventually those words lose value. A professor I had in school (who was in broadcasting) always use to say, when you're communicating weather (or anything in life really), choose your words carefully because how you define your words is how the audience is going to perceive and understand them. For example, if you keep saying "this weather is beautiful" obviously everyone is going to have their own definition of it, but what does it really mean. If you're using it for when it's 45F and sunny, 58F and sunny, 73F and sunny...do you really want to use beautiful for when it is 45F and sunny? Wouldn't you want to save that for when it truly is? Otherwise, the meaning of the word becomes diminished. Back to the severe weather...if wording such as "potential for strong/violent tornadoes" gets used over and over, eventually people may just let their guard down because how many times can you hear the same thing and not see anything happen (and by not see anything happen I don't mean a person's backyard, I mean for the picture as a whole). Like with our area, we get so many low potential setups (low cape/high shear) that maybe out of every 20, 1 or 2 produce tornadoes. But if you keep saying, "there is a chance for a tornado" every time...and nothing happens...well that one day when it actually may/does people may have their guard down. Maybe this would be on the people for letting their guard down but a large part is how things are communicated. Social media I think has made this much worse though because now you just have everyone posting STP maps, UH maps, etc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 Up to 74F here in the valley in E CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 Top 5 COC day 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 24 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Communicating these types of events I'm sure is not easy, especially because you're dealing with a weather phenomena which is only impacting a small fraction of people compared to the overall geographic size where the potential exists. But the way I see it is, if you continue to use extreme wording time and time again, eventually those words lose value. A professor I had in school (who was in broadcasting) always use to say, when you're communicating weather (or anything in life really), choose your words carefully because how you define your words is how the audience is going to perceive and understand them. For example, if you keep saying "this weather is beautiful" obviously everyone is going to have their own definition of it, but what does it really mean. If you're using it for when it's 45F and sunny, 58F and sunny, 73F and sunny...do you really want to use beautiful for when it is 45F and sunny? Wouldn't you want to save that for when it truly is? Otherwise, the meaning of the word becomes diminished. Back to the severe weather...if wording such as "potential for strong/violent tornadoes" gets used over and over, eventually people may just let their guard down because how many times can you hear the same thing and not see anything happen (and by not see anything happen I don't mean a person's backyard, I mean for the picture as a whole). Like with our area, we get so many low potential setups (low cape/high shear) that maybe out of every 20, 1 or 2 produce tornadoes. But if you keep saying, "there is a chance for a tornado" every time...and nothing happens...well that one day when it actually may/does people may have their guard down. Maybe this would be on the people for letting their guard down but a large part is how things are communicated. Social media I think has made this much worse though because now you just have everyone posting STP maps, UH maps, etc. I hear you. I don’t think I saw the SPC or local news go over the top with this. I think a lot of the general public expects imby precision that just isn’t possible. I don’t know how we get over that communication gap, but I think that’s a big piece of it. I am a believer of only using extreme language in extreme events but your “chance of a tornado” example isn’t a case of that. If there’s a tornado risk albeit small, how do you leave that out of a forecast? Usually what I do is try to explain the SPC percentages. People tend to get that. For example, there’s a risk, but it’s 2%. There’s a greater chance of wind damage so let’s focus on that. If I need to explain more I do. If I see something that enhances or mitigates a risk I (usually) say it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 7 Author Share Posted May 7 5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I hear you. I don’t think I saw the SPC or local news go over the top with this. I think a lot of the general public expects imby precision that just isn’t possible. I don’t know how we get over that communication gap, but I think that’s a big piece of it. I am a believer of only using extreme language in extreme events but your “chance of a tornado” example isn’t a case of that. If there’s a tornado risk albeit small, how do you leave that out of a forecast? Usually what I do is try to explain the SPC percentages. People tend to get that. For example, there’s a risk, but it’s 2%. There’s a greater chance of wind damage so let’s focus on that. If I need to explain more I do. If I see something that enhances or mitigates a risk I (usually) say it. I thought maybe the SPC did go a bit much with this. The high Risk, the PDS Watch, some of the wording was pretty intense as well. It seems like there has become more of a focus on parameters than the overall picture. I think even within the SPC discussion, there was some questioning about storm mode and a few other flags but went on the aggressive side given how models were indicating Significant Tornado Parameter Values of 10+...which is absolutely insane but we have to remember those do not mean anything if you don't have the right storms to utilize them. It seems like there has been a large movement within the forecasting industry to focus on parameters, AI products, analogs and reverting away from using what is most valuable, understanding the setup on hand and incorporating historical knowledge. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 @weatherwiz no thread for tomorrow? 3k NAM is interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 7 Author Share Posted May 7 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: @weatherwiz no thread for tomorrow? 3k NAM is interesting nahhh I don't think we are going to see much of anything. Maybe a few cells but it is super dry aloft and looks like a strong mlvl cap and perhaps some subsidence behind AM activity. Anything that does pop is going to really struggle IMO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 tomorrow is a day I would actually want the sun to come out HRRR is nice if we could actually get storms to fire Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 15 hours ago, powderfreak said: All sliding doors open, windows open, still decent foot and bike traffic on the Rec Path outside at 8pm. Love it. Crazy how light it is still at 8pm for outdoor recreation and people are taking advantage. Decent amount of runners. Sucks to think in 6 weeks the days start getting shorter already. But it's 6 weeks after that when the average temps begin their slide. Full sun and pushing 70, fiddleheads gone by, lilac and quince buds fat and ready to pop. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 Friend from Southern Indiana sent me this. Wish we were there. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 Wow, look at LGA's grid data (NAM) for tomorrow at 18z 36000 38 32 29 -1098 022714 64 26 19 08 that's a pure open sear sun sky with a T1 of 26C ... the 2-m slope temperatures probably 31 C there with that straight west wind 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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