weatherwiz Posted May 22 Author Share Posted May 22 Should see multiple rounds of storms tomorrow, though greatest potential perhaps Pike south? Decent mid-level lapse rates and bulk shear. llvl shear is meh but steep (low-level) lapse rates should help produce strong wind gusts and good MLCAPE/steep mid-level lapse rates should yield some hail potential in the stronger cores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 Distant teleconnector projections from all three ensemble system have a dramatic mode change from negative to positive PNA. Nooormally, the PNA takes a backseat in the summer - to which we are not actually/technically in, just yet, granted ( certainly close enough that the PNA statistical correlation should be lowering ). However, that signal is also glaringly and quite unusually massively signaled in the ensemble mean spatial layouts; the depiction of the circulation mode presented imm below tends to rule out the non-correlation argument. In other words, it's difficult to imagine a broad hemispheric foot print like below successfully transporting much AN. They all three look similar to this enough to just use the EPS Deep troughing between Hawaii and California sets up in the deep range, and puts N/A down stream into a set up that looks like it would completely shut down summer as we head deeper into the first week of June. I've seen big signals fall apart this late winter through spring, in the extended range a couple of times. We'll see where this goes as the time arrives, but it does raise some tentative caution flags for the 'unending, unbroken warm season enthusiast' crew, when considering that we've seen more than just 1 or 2 summers end up dimmed after an early warm anomaly period. Just sayn' 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 Interesting ... sort of indirect argument from the MJO desk that lends to the current longer range pattern orientation summer gloom doom by the ens as suspect. I'm just trying to get a feel for the early summer pattern bias - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 I tell ya ... if we ever get 22.5C at 850 mb in a vertically integrating sounding while this sky condition is happening, we will be 105 at all majors, https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-New_England-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined I've noticed over the last 20 years ...when > 22C types of kinetically charged warm slabs, rare as it may be, successfully swath over the region from a SW/Sonoran type heat release synoptics, we seldom observe the above striking purity of clear. We always have poorly timed mid or high level gunk to take the edge off. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 77.7F, dew 67.4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 warmest day of the season by far. 77/62. dews creepin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 80.2/67 here at home at 11am. I assume folks know where I live now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 FIT at 85/58 at last hourly update. Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 Probably should have installed last weekend. On this weekends to do list. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 22 Author Share Posted May 22 58 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I tell ya ... if we ever get 22.5C at 850 mb in a vertically integrating sounding while this sky condition is happening, we will be 105 at all majors, https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-New_England-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined I've noticed over the last 20 years ...when > 22C types of kinetically charged warm slabs, rare as it may be, successfully swath over the region from a SW/Sonoran type heat release synoptics, we seldom observe the above striking purity of clear. We always have poorly timed mid or high level gunk to take the edge off. I hope we get a massively record shattering heat and humidity dome where we get widespread high temperatures 105-110 and dewpoints 73-75. It all comes to and end when a strong trough comes through and we get CB's spiking 50,000-70,000 feet and some crazy interaction happens with space where solar storm debris get ingested into the storms and its the wildest lightning show on the planet. A derecho then rips across the region and takes out the power grid, beating next year's Carrington Event to the punch. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 79.5/69 We dewy after the storms yesterday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 Just did an oyster farm tour in Osterville. If it was more than 55 I would be shocked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 17 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Most AC’s are put up and in Napril. Folks like to get them in and get that chore out of the way. They’ve been needing AC at Stowe this week. How can people in SNE sleep in the high dews and heat? lol...But as THE dew lover and master of all that is sticky and moist you should be able to thrive in the hig dews and high heat without man-made creature comforts. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 20 minutes ago, amarshall said: Just did an oyster farm tour in Osterville. If it was more than 55 I would be shocked. a bit cooler right along the coast but probably more like 60s. 70s to near 80 just inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 35 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I hope we get a massively erect skin shattering dome where we get widespread orgies 3-4 a pop running 69 trains. It all comes to an end when a strong tough man with a burly chest gives me a paddle spanking 50,000-70,000 times and some crazy interaction happens when I get his specimen ingested into the pie-hole and its the wildest show on the planet. A dong then rips across my kisser, beating me senseless into next year while I'm left drunk on love punch. Stay......safe? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 85.1 back at the ranch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 87. We take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 87. We take. I wonder why that little bubble from MHT down to ASH is so often ground zero for heat in the region...must be a combo of being far enough from the marine influence, at the southern flank of the MRV and at the base of the higher terrain over the interior to accentuate the downslope element.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I wonder why that little bubble from MHT down to ASH is so often ground zero for heat in the region...must be a combo of being far enough from the marine influence, at the southern flank of the MRV and at the base of the higher terrain over the interior to accentuate the downslope element.. That's definitely part of it. I think you eventually don't see that difference once SSTs to the south warm up a bit. I also noticed (especially yesterday) modeled showed the best warmth 925-850 over that area so it makes sense why it was so warm there yesterday. Today that is more widespread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 85° here. Woodland creatures looking for cool spots. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 82/69 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 3 minutes ago, kdxken said: 85° here. Woodland creatures looking for cool spots. Why did you run it over? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Why did you run it over? She's fine just trying to hide. Mama came and got her. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 Oak dongs violently raining down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 Such hand wringing 6 pages back. Full speed ahead! Warm downs more indicative of those a month from now. Here we go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Why did you run it over? Ha that photo 100% looks like that fawn was run over. Figured that wasn’t the case. Awesome to see them up close. Thats a little one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 I bought a blower and oak pollen makes it nearly impossible to keep up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 86.5 currently, Mooovin' on up. Far too much sun for these temps, I need some of Tips high level gunk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Oak dongs violently raining down. Slapping across faces Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 19 minutes ago, weathafella said: Such hand wringing 6 pages back. Full speed ahead! Warm downs more indicative of those a month from now. Here we go! WTTTE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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