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May 2024 Discussion - Welcome to Severe Season!!!!


weatherwiz
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  On 5/9/2024 at 9:32 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

We got really lucky down here along rt 2 ...  71 in near full sun and very little wind in zip RH.  It's like that utopia feel to the air. 

 

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Recall all the wringing of hands and nashiing of teeth of rain Thursday - Sunday with temps in the 40’s and a few even calling for snow ? They were using the NWS and apps and we tried explaining not to do that and those ideas would not work out. Now it’s just a dry , mild 3 day stretch with a few spot showers Sunday 

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  On 5/9/2024 at 9:48 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Recall all the wringing of hands and nashiing of teeth of rain Thursday - Sunday with temps in the 40’s and a few even calling for snow ? They were using the NWS and apps and we tried explaining not to do that and those ideas would not work out. Now it’s just a dry , mild 3 day stretch with a few spot showers Sunday 

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not NWS apps but the Nam was showing it.. 

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  On 5/9/2024 at 10:19 PM, ineedsnow said:

not NWS apps but the Nam was showing it.. 

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Yeah I remember some model guidance posted, but DIT is on a heater of a smear campaign of NWS lately :lol:.

In general though if you follow these rules regardless of the pattern you’re odds are better than 50-50:

Winter… Warm.

Spring… Warm.

Summer… Warm.

Fall… Warm.

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  On 5/9/2024 at 11:11 PM, Torch Tiger said:

Rip-reading charts with no scientific analysis or imagination is silly, gets a lot of folks into trouble and then doubling-down on bad forecasts.

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To be honest looking at models should be rewarded on some level over using imagination or making up the weather you want too.  It’s a fine line.

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  On 5/10/2024 at 12:32 AM, kdxken said:

Looks like three more days topping out in the '50s oh joy. When does this cold snap end? Boston solidly below normal for the month.

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Only close to the shore.  Most of us are above normal through 5/8 with BOS below while ORH, BDL are solidly above.   PVD is -0.7.  Also, weren’t you mild Monday and Tuesday?  Like +5-10 for maximum temps?  

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  On 5/10/2024 at 2:31 AM, weathafella said:

Only close to the shore.  Most of us are above normal through 5/8 with BOS below while ORH, BDL are solidly above.   PVD is -0.7.  Also, weren’t you mild Monday and Tuesday?  Like +5-10 for maximum temps?  

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Not even close up here.  We can’t get a month even near normal.

It’s worth noting that the past 6 months of ridiculous temperature departures are based off the most recent normals, which were stepwise warmer than the old normals.  So these departures would be solidly higher than they have been if compared against the past 30-year dataset we knew in the 2010s.

This first 30% of May…

BTV… +5.1

MVL… +5.0

MPV… +4.9

Yet another month in progress that will be a torch.  Champlain Valley to interior sites east of the Spine.  Radiator or not.  Doesn’t matter.  It’s +5 through the first third of May.  Not even close to normal or below.

+8 to +10 over winter months has mellowed to +5.  A true below normal pattern would make folks think an ice age is coming.

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  On 5/10/2024 at 1:12 AM, WxWatcher007 said:

Shame clouds will be around. This is a massive sunspot even by sunspot standards. 

 

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https://www.spaceweather.com/

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According to a NOAA forecast model, the first three CMEs could merge for form a "Cannibal CME." Cannibal CMEs form when fast-moving CMEs overtake and gobble up slower CMEs in front of them. Internal shock waves created by such CME collisions do an good job sparking geomagnetic storms when they strike Earth's magnetic field.

The Cannibal CME is expected to arrive on May 11th. It alone could spark a strong (G3) geomagnetic storm. With two more CMEs following close behind, storm levels could become extreme (G4), sparking auroras at mid- to low-latitudes across Europe and the USA.

 

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Hype incoming.  Expect Cannibal CME to overtake Polar Vortex and Atmospheric River as media buzz-phrase

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  On 5/9/2024 at 9:48 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Recall all the wringing of hands and nashiing of teeth of rain Thursday - Sunday with temps in the 40’s and a few even calling for snow ? They were using the NWS and apps and we tried explaining not to do that and those ideas would not work out. Now it’s just a dry , mild 3 day stretch with a few spot showers Sunday 

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So much for just a few spot showers on Sunday, rain and 46F here. 0.07 so far on top of 1.41 on Wed, waiting for Stein to make an appearance.

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  On 5/9/2024 at 9:48 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Recall all the wringing of hands and nashiing of teeth of rain Thursday - Sunday with temps in the 40’s and a few even calling for snow ? They were using the NWS and apps and we tried explaining not to do that and those ideas would not work out. Now it’s just a dry , mild 3 day stretch with a few spot showers Sunday 

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Dry and mild lolz..

 

 

Screenshot_20240510_064710_Google.jpg

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  On 5/9/2024 at 9:48 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Recall all the wringing of hands and nashiing of teeth of rain Thursday - Sunday with temps in the 40’s and a few even calling for snow ? They were using the NWS and apps and we tried explaining not to do that and those ideas would not work out. Now it’s just a dry , mild 3 day stretch with a few spot showers Sunday 

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Dry out the window!! 13 hrs later it's raining lol

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