ineedsnow Posted May 7, 2024 Share Posted May 7, 2024 flakes for some? 2 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted May 7, 2024 Share Posted May 7, 2024 here comes the first 70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 7, 2024 Share Posted May 7, 2024 I think tomorrow may have a few stronger storms. Decent lapse rates moving in, good 850 theta-e. May even get some srfc base stuff near low center in the aftn? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 7, 2024 Share Posted May 7, 2024 On 5/7/2024 at 3:57 PM, CoastalWx said: I think tomorrow may have a few stronger storms. Decent lapse rates moving in, good 850 theta-e. May even get some srfc base stuff near low center in the aftn? Expand I saw Ryan mentioned an EML ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 7, 2024 Share Posted May 7, 2024 On 5/7/2024 at 4:00 PM, Typhoon Tip said: I saw Ryan mentioned an EML ? Expand Placement of it seems in question...but yeah at least a weaker EML anyways. Maybe even lapse rates >7C/KM from 700-500. For the most part low levels are stable so if anything maybe some hail? Western areas may get srfc destabilization. I wouldn't honk, but could see 1 or 2 stronger storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 7, 2024 Share Posted May 7, 2024 NAM went N with the warm boundary for tomorrow. Has it pretty darn SRHy looking on this run between the Pike and rt 2. Bit warmer too as a consequence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 7, 2024 Share Posted May 7, 2024 On 5/7/2024 at 4:05 PM, CoastalWx said: Placement of it seems in question...but yeah at least a weaker EML anyways. Maybe even lapse rates >7C/KM from 700-500. For the most part low levels are stable so if anything maybe some hail? Western areas may get srfc destabilization. I wouldn't honk, but could see 1 or 2 stronger storms. Expand which seems it must be 300% of normal for this stability hole of a wasteland 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 7, 2024 Share Posted May 7, 2024 On 5/7/2024 at 3:43 PM, ineedsnow said: flakes for some? Expand For the hawks nests maybe. I don't diminish the cold profile at this late in the year, but that's the eastern region of the Tug Hill, which has an elevation around 2,000 ... than again S Greens and up there near the Presidential Range in NH. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 7, 2024 Share Posted May 7, 2024 On 5/7/2024 at 3:43 PM, ineedsnow said: flakes for some? Expand With temps in the 60’s 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 7, 2024 Share Posted May 7, 2024 On 5/7/2024 at 4:20 PM, Damage In Tolland said: With temps in the 60’s Expand Take em way down. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted May 7, 2024 Share Posted May 7, 2024 On 5/7/2024 at 4:20 PM, Damage In Tolland said: With temps in the 60’s Expand Beer while looking at models? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted May 7, 2024 Share Posted May 7, 2024 On 5/7/2024 at 4:14 PM, Typhoon Tip said: For the hawks nests maybe. I don't diminish the cold profile at this late in the year, but that's the eastern region of the Tug Hill, which has an elevation around 2,000 ... than again S Greens and up there near the Presidential Range in NH. Expand Those are the Adirondack high peaks. Tug Hill is west of there, off the eastern end of Lake Ontario. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 7, 2024 Share Posted May 7, 2024 On 5/7/2024 at 3:04 PM, weatherwiz said: I thought maybe the SPC did go a bit much with this. The high Risk, the PDS Watch, some of the wording was pretty intense as well. It seems like there has become more of a focus on parameters than the overall picture. I think even within the SPC discussion, there was some questioning about storm mode and a few other flags but went on the aggressive side given how models were indicating Significant Tornado Parameter Values of 10+...which is absolutely insane but we have to remember those do not mean anything if you don't have the right storms to utilize them. It seems like there has been a large movement within the forecasting industry to focus on parameters, AI products, analogs and reverting away from using what is most valuable, understanding the setup on hand and incorporating historical knowledge. Expand I agree that storm mode did look mostly messy, and that’s what happened for the most part. Also agree about parameters. They look pretty and can be valuable, but it doesn’t replace a fundamental understanding of the environment itself. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 7, 2024 Share Posted May 7, 2024 On 5/7/2024 at 4:48 PM, cny rider said: Those are the Adirondack high peaks. Tug Hill is west of there, off the eastern end of Lake Ontario. Expand cool 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted May 7, 2024 Share Posted May 7, 2024 Lock in what the GFS is showing for next week please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 7, 2024 Share Posted May 7, 2024 On 5/7/2024 at 4:42 PM, ineedsnow said: Beer while looking at models? Expand Saturdays highs will be well into the 60’s in SNE. ACATT never gives up though . It’s not going to be 40 on Sat lol 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 7, 2024 Share Posted May 7, 2024 On 5/7/2024 at 5:13 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Saturdays highs will be well into the 60’s in SNE. ACATT never gives up though Expand That map is for Friday though (00z Sat is 8pm Friday). Not trying to enter the debate, just pointing that out. 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 7, 2024 Share Posted May 7, 2024 On 5/7/2024 at 5:14 PM, powderfreak said: That map is for Friday though (00z Sat is 8pm Friday). Not trying to enter the debate, just pointing that out. Expand Oh I thought it was Saturday. Friday will be in the 50’s so yeah a bit cooler 1 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 7, 2024 Share Posted May 7, 2024 On 5/7/2024 at 5:16 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Oh I thought it was Saturday. Friday will be in the 50’s so yeah a bit cooler Expand Just looking, seems GFS and NAM are 40s there for you on Friday, but GGEM is 50s and 6z ECM was low 50s. I'd tend to lean on the warmer side of guidance as it doesn't take much for a max temp to sneak up into the 50s this time of year. It would take some work to truly stay in the 40s, even there at 1,000ft. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 7, 2024 Share Posted May 7, 2024 On 5/7/2024 at 5:18 PM, powderfreak said: Just looking, seems GFS and NAM are 40s there for you on Friday, but GGEM is 50s and 6z ECM was low 50s. I'd tend to lean on the warmer side of guidance as it doesn't take much for a max temp to sneak up into the 50s this time of year. It would take some work to truly stay in the 40s, even there at 1,000ft. Expand Just funny to see ACATT hold on …looking for anything lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 7, 2024 Share Posted May 7, 2024 On 5/7/2024 at 5:21 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Just funny to see ACATT hold on …looking for anything lol Expand Your forecast is having the storm speed out. Not sure that is possible. 00z runs looked closer to 60+. But that is dependent on when it leaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 7, 2024 Share Posted May 7, 2024 On 5/7/2024 at 5:18 PM, powderfreak said: Just looking, seems GFS and NAM are 40s there for you on Friday, but GGEM is 50s and 6z ECM was low 50s. I'd tend to lean on the warmer side of guidance as it doesn't take much for a max temp to sneak up into the 50s this time of year. It would take some work to truly stay in the 40s, even there at 1,000ft. Expand He'll have the heat on for sure. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 7, 2024 Share Posted May 7, 2024 On 5/7/2024 at 5:28 PM, CoastalWx said: He'll have the heat on for sure. Expand I mean sensibly yeah, 53F or 48F. Doesn’t really matter at all. A max in the 50s vs the 40s isn’t a spring celebration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 7, 2024 Share Posted May 7, 2024 On 5/7/2024 at 5:28 PM, CoastalWx said: He'll have the heat on for sure. Expand Lol Heat in May? Uninstalled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted May 7, 2024 Share Posted May 7, 2024 On 5/7/2024 at 5:21 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Just funny to see ACATT hold on …looking for anything lol Expand ..it's been sssoooo long since there was a day in the mid to upper 40's.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted May 7, 2024 Share Posted May 7, 2024 On 5/6/2024 at 10:06 PM, Typhoon Tip said: I just need Sunday to end up on the fairer side - can you work that out ? Expand Looking at most guidance ex the GFS op you can see how odds favor decent weather. GEM makes most sense to me. Even the 12z GEFS has the surface low SE of the BM by 12z Sat. Not buying bs IVT on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted May 7, 2024 Share Posted May 7, 2024 75/35. She's a beut Clark 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted May 7, 2024 Share Posted May 7, 2024 On 5/7/2024 at 6:42 PM, Lava Rock said: 75/35. She's a beut Clark Expand Yup, Unfortunately we'll probably have to wait another month for the next. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted May 7, 2024 Share Posted May 7, 2024 77.8 high. Very pleasant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 7, 2024 Share Posted May 7, 2024 On 5/7/2024 at 5:56 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Heat in May? Lol Expand 82 BDL .Torch ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now