weatherwiz Posted May 6 Author Share Posted May 6 Marginal risk tickling my fanny for Wednesday! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 6 Share Posted May 6 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Marginal risk tickling my fanny for Wednesday! And high risk in Oklahoma and Kansas today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 6 Author Share Posted May 6 1 minute ago, yoda said: And high risk in Oklahoma and Kansas today oh wow...yeah I see the MCD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 6 Share Posted May 6 1 hour ago, Patrick-02540 said: I remember reading a social psychology/anthropology article in graduate school about this type of persistent cool, damp, and overcast weather being the driving force for the expansion of the British empire. People can't tolerate this, and it is an impetus for relocation to warmer and drier areas. You can go ahead and expand this perspective into the total arc of human evolution. Climate has been a modulating force on migration pathways and establishment depots during all three major migration events out of Africa. This is known yup. No one asked me but the only thing stopping me from going elsewhere at this point is loneliness - ha... I don't want to to commit to any such venture, by my self, and have to start over at my age. Interestingly, there is this new reverse aging technology. Apparently it's working in mice. Like they've cracked the code of death. They've taken these mice that are geriatric, and reverted them back to svelte and virile. Solving problems and getting phone numbers from the babes in the other cages. If this were somehow scaled up to humans? Yeah, given another 70 years of good looks, intelligence, and hot girls, might make it worth the while Lol. Most of my erstwhile life I was on the tolerant side of this New England's time stealing season known as spring. I was tolerant because I had a kind of tacit agreement with nature: you get to violate my will to live in the spring, because you're giving us big winters. It was a willing trade off. Besides, albeit rare, some years would turn balmy, early, and stay that way. And usually, July is still coming whether spring liked it or not - we'd get at least a couple of months of that 80+deg, golf and beach nostalgia. But lately? Winters are a root-canal, while summers are becoming too submerged in DPs mixed with "continental B.O." - I don't know what you call that polluted miasma we've been getting in recent summers, but it's causing these black mold blooms like red tide in the house. Summers are becoming eerie. And springs seem to eat later and later into summer. The deal is off! Taking time away from higher sun angle time of the year and eating into the warm season, while our winters are increasing sucky. That's another reason why people migrated from the Brit Empire ... taxation became unfair. ... Without winters? what's the point. It's a good thing the climate isn't changing I keep getting post cards and cold calls, and texts from strangers offering to buy my house, as is, ...dinner plate departure, for cash - meaning you drop what you're doing and just give them the keys for X amount of dollars. Literally, 'no cleaning necessary. Leave the furniture ...', etc. A lot of people are getting those around me, too. I guess most of the population doesn't give a shit what the weather's doing because I'd-a thunk a climate frustration triggered diaspora would lower real-estate demand I dunno. Point is, I can probably get out here if it got bad enough - but where to go? Cloudy, 53 .... supposed to be 71 but it's cloudier than modeled as a last minute adjustment - go figure. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted May 6 Share Posted May 6 1 hour ago, jbenedet said: To put some objectivity to our pessimism: this year, most in our subforum will have the landscape in a cold season state fall/winter >6 months; i.e, longer than a warm season spring/summer state. First week of November is only 6 months out…. I used to feel like summers were so long when I was younger. Now they are woefully too short. Blink and it will be Labor Day. Blink again and it’s Thanksgiving. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted May 6 Share Posted May 6 other than later today and tomorrow, this wk looks like ass up here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 6 Share Posted May 6 The mood is down in here today ( apparently ... heh ), because in being slaved to photo-electric effect, the brain circuitry misses the direct sunlight thru the warm air we were promised on people's faces this morning. If it were 64 already with warm sun corpuscular rays beaming thru the morning budding trees of May and all that, we'd be spinning things more optimistically - understood. It could be ... vastly worse. May 2005 makes this look like a Hawaiian get away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted May 6 Share Posted May 6 43 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: other than later today and tomorrow, this wk looks like ass up here. The 6z run of the GFS was pretty nasty....hopefully that doesn't come to fruition, I thought the Euro at least looked better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted May 6 Share Posted May 6 1 hour ago, NorEastermass128 said: I used to feel like summers were so long when I was younger. Now they are woefully too short. Blink and it will be Labor Day. Blink again and it’s Thanksgiving. From there it’s four more months of November! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 6 Share Posted May 6 Whenever I see one of these alerts down there I'm always struck with this notion that the region in question is really in a constant state of meso-beta ( between synoptic and meso ) scale circulation, already. Like a static, if not quantifiably rotating field relative to the surrounding medium, certainly intense potential vorticy. It could be a sunny day with no jet streak moving over, no DP gradient fairness, ...that region still slowly turns around itself. Just a matter of whether it gets focused. This is going to be really bunner comment here ...but, I've seen this watching slowly whirling leaves around the lee sides of buildings and when a gust comes over top ... it provides a wonder natural laboratory. The slowly whirling leaves suddenly contract into a rapidly spinning column as/while the gust is roaring over from over the building and passes over that same region. It's really the same thing in principle. We dawn with "slowly turning leaves" down there, and wait for some jet streak to come over top the "rockies building" - it passes over, triggers a lift, stretches the vortex which contracts it's diameter ... and away it columnates. It's like if we lived on a world that didn't have water, there'd be tornadoes there anyway -they just wouldn't be connected to any thunderstorm CBS. heh interesting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted May 6 Share Posted May 6 Crazy how many birds came back this weekend. It's almost loud in the woods. Baltimore Orioles always coincide with wild apples blooming. Every year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 6 Author Share Posted May 6 9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Whenever I see one of these alerts down there I'm always struck with this notion that the region in question is really in a constant state of meso-beta ( between synoptic and meso ) scale circulation, already. Like a static, if not quantifiably rotating field relative to the surrounding medium, certainly intense potential vorticy. It could be a sunny day with no jet streak moving over, no DP gradient fairness, ...that region still slowly turns around itself. Just a matter of whether it gets focused. This is going to be really bunner comment here ...but, I've seen this watching slowly whirling leaves around the lee sides of buildings and when a gust comes over top ... it provides a wonder natural laboratory. The slowly whirling leaves suddenly contract into a rapidly spinning column as/while the gust is roaring over to the building. It's really the same thing in principle. We dawn with "slowly turning leaves" down there, and wait for some jet streak to come over top the "rockies building" - it passes over, triggers a lift, stretches the vortex with contract it's diameter ...it's like if we lived on a world that didn't have water, there's be a tornadoes there anyway -they just wouldn't be connected to any thunderstormCBS. heh interesting. Going to be something watching how everything unfolds there later. Seems to be like the storm mode could be a bit messy. Overall though its a pretty scary setup as the greatest concern for tornadoes is evening/overnight. With the greatest concentration of forcing north of Oklahoma with a strengthening mlvl wind max across Oklahoma overnight, there could be enough for discrete supercells within Oklahoma which would not be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 6 Author Share Posted May 6 blahhhh that's some nice shortwave forcing Wednesday with steep lapse rates but its awfully dry aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 6 Share Posted May 6 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: blahhhh that's some nice shortwave forcing Wednesday with steep lapse rates but its awfully dry aloft. Dry micro bursts ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted May 6 Share Posted May 6 Within 10 minutes it went from mid spring to early summer...guess the front pushed through here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 6 Author Share Posted May 6 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Dry micro bursts ? I'm a bit bummed actually. When I was looking at vort, wind, and lapse rates then got to QPF I was shocked the NAM wasn't spitting much of anything out during the afternoon. Initial thoughts were maybe too much cloud junk or maybe shortwave subsidence. But getting into soundings...bone dry within the mid-levels and even into the lower-levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted May 6 Share Posted May 6 12 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Going to be something watching how everything unfolds there later. Seems to be like the storm mode could be a bit messy. Overall though its a pretty scary setup as the greatest concern for tornadoes is evening/overnight. With the greatest concentration of forcing north of Oklahoma with a strengthening mlvl wind max across Oklahoma overnight, there could be enough for discrete supercells within Oklahoma which would not be good. Avelo has flights from New Haven to St Louis now for around $150 round trip. You can rent a car with the damage deductible for less than that in STL as well. Tons of cheap motels spread out across the Midwest. Get out there and chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 6 Author Share Posted May 6 3 minutes ago, BrianW said: Avelo has flights from New Haven to St Louis now for around $150 round trip. You can rent a car with the damage deductible for less than that in STL as well. Tons of cheap motels spread out across the Midwest. Get out there and chase. Wow that is cheap! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 6 Share Posted May 6 10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I'm a bit bummed actually. When I was looking at vort, wind, and lapse rates then got to QPF I was shocked the NAM wasn't spitting much of anything out during the afternoon. Initial thoughts were maybe too much cloud junk or maybe shortwave subsidence. But getting into soundings...bone dry within the mid-levels and even into the lower-levels. mm...I also wouldn't trust the NAM with those metrics. It's been vacillating between completely cloud and mostly sunny for today, for example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 6 Author Share Posted May 6 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: mm...I also wouldn't trust the NAM with those metrics. It's been vacillating between completely cloud and mostly sunny for today, for example. I would think we do break out into mostly sunny skies after the morning round of rain/thunder. Perhaps our best chance for anything is with the morning stuff which will be elevated. Looks like we remain on the stable side though in the afternoon with an onshore flow. HV could be a decent spot should convection re-develop. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted May 6 Share Posted May 6 Filtered sun here. Moisture to the west drying out. Shocking. If we get this low level crap to scour out, I can deal with an afternoon of cirrus. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 6 Share Posted May 6 Sweet. Black flies are here and hungry before we even hit 70° this spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 6 Share Posted May 6 71/63. We dew. Lack of wind Probably helping locally pool the dews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 6 Share Posted May 6 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: blahhhh that's some nice shortwave forcing Wednesday with steep lapse rates but its awfully dry aloft. One day we’ll get a high risk here…and folks will be calling bust by 10am as usual. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 6 Share Posted May 6 This is wet n moist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 6 Author Share Posted May 6 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: One day we’ll get a high risk here…and folks will be calling bust by 10am as usual. I wonder if we'll ever see a high risk any further east than what we saw 5/31/98. The only way it ever happens if there was a legit signal for a derecho to rip across NY/PA and SNE (or NY across NNE). We would never see a high risk for tornado probs, one reason being the spatial size of our geography is just too small. I wonder what the outlook was for 7/15/95. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted May 6 Share Posted May 6 69/60, finally feels a bit like summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted May 6 Share Posted May 6 TP weather! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted May 6 Share Posted May 6 25 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I wonder if we'll ever see a high risk any further east than what we saw 5/31/98. The only way it ever happens if there was a legit signal for a derecho to rip across NY/PA and SNE (or NY across NNE). We would never see a high risk for tornado probs, one reason being the spatial size of our geography is just too small. I wonder what the outlook was for 7/15/95. Would 1953 have warranted a high risk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted May 6 Share Posted May 6 53 minutes ago, dendrite said: Sweet. Black flies are here and hungry before we even hit 70° this spring. they were brutal on saturday when I was doing yard work. They don't give a shit about the bug repellent I sprayed on my head 5 times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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