Typhoon Tip Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 41 minutes ago, NoCORH4L said: Going to be like this crap until Monday next week. Seems the sensitivity is almost entirely NAO causal. I'm noticing that same general improvement after this weekend in the panache of the guidance out in time ( variable depending on which.. but by and large). Meanwhile, all ens sourced teleconnection coverage shows an abrupt neutralization of NAO from ~ -1.5 SD to nominal by early week. The mid and extended range NAO is 0 SD flat-lined from ~ the 5th out into oblivion, after that point in time. Those two facets seem likely connected. During this and recency with -NAO we've kept seeing trough shrapnel and all other perturbations diving SE when nearing 90W/50N ... blunting back any continental westerly flow types from getting in here - that's the -NAO having established as a primary forcing mechanism on the current era synoptics. In short, we need to get rid of that f'ing menace. I also want to add, this is consistent with the last 5 years of spring NAOs. 4 out of the last 5 years have seen a -NAO between mid April and mid Mays. And these were not merely intraweekly excursions in the index values. These were definitive R. Wave structures that pulsed in amplitude in the negative phase states, spanning 2 weeks or more. Those months that were positive outliers, actually still had negative phase states that encourage at least transient negative anomalies. Probably why those positive average mo's were limited to a +.5 SD paltry range. These negative NAO excursive springs have(are) taken(ing) place regardless of leading ENSOs, too - just thought we'd clear that up now - which argues that there is a separate manifold of forcing that is causing this transition season cold regression to take place. We probably don't have to labor the fact that -NAO are going to be more problematic to temperature distribution in NE and SE Canada than anywhere else on the continent. Particularly when the -NAO is biased over the western limb of the domain - which they have been just going by both memory and a-priori. Well, looking at the two recent days of 80 F in N PA while we sniff low tide cool air smells in Worcester certainly fits the bill. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 Sun is out. LFG ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 2 hours ago, NoCORH4L said: Going to be like this crap until Monday next week. Yeah doesn’t look like a great stretch although tomorrow does look nice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 Damn it more snow! When will it end? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 34 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Sun is out. LFG ! Still locked in clouds here... LOVE it! You can have the sun 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 Ka Ka weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 9 minutes ago, UnitedWx said: Still locked in clouds here... LOVE it! You can have the sun You disturbed child. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 Crazy gradient in CT with this pattern. usually our weather on Long Island is similar to NE for the most part, but for whatever reason it’s been much much warmer here than points Ne. Usually we get back doored when NE does, can’t believe Ne still in the muck. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 1 Author Share Posted May 1 18 minutes ago, kdxken said: Damn it more snow! When will it end? "Developing by D10" well at least AI seems to have learned the bogus D10 crap that never verifies 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: "Developing by D10" well at least AI seems to have learned the bogus D10 crap that never verifies Yeah SkyNet gone wild. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 55 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: "Developing by D10" well at least AI seems to have learned the bogus D10 crap that never verifies I can’t even imagine what a d10 Taylor Swift AI would look like 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: You disturbed child. I know, right... Vampire DNA or something 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 1 Author Share Posted May 1 17 minutes ago, dendrite said: I can’t even imagine what a d10 Taylor Swift AI would look like probably be dropping albums Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 1 hour ago, psv88 said: Crazy gradient in CT with this pattern. usually our weather on Long Island is similar to NE for the most part, but for whatever reason it’s been much much warmer here than points Ne. Usually we get back doored when NE does, can’t believe Ne still in the muck. It kicked out of here about an hour ago-skies cleared and temps up to 68-70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: It kicked out of here about an hour ago-skies cleared and temps up to 68-70 Multiple days of upper 60s and low 70s on the island while Boston, E CT stuck in the 50s. Very rare to see. Boston still sitting at 50 lol. Absolutely brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 2 minutes ago, psv88 said: Multiple days of upper 60s and low 70s on the island while Boston, E CT stuck in the 50s. Very rare to see. Boston still sitting at 50 lol. Absolutely brutal yeah usually we are all socked in together in our misery-yesterday was awful here but I could see the clearing out over the sound-it just never moved in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 3 minutes ago, psv88 said: Multiple days of upper 60s and low 70s on the island while Boston, E CT stuck in the 50s. Very rare to see. Boston still sitting at 50 lol. Absolutely brutal Is it that rare? I feel like it happens quite a bit this time of year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 2 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Is it that rare? I feel like it happens quite a bit this time of year. I'd say so-Long Island usually is rough with east winds-Back door usually goes down to Central Jersey and stalls...Philly was 82 yesterday while I was stuck at 55 all day-usually the island is in the same airmass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: I'd say so-Long Island usually is rough with east winds-Back door usually goes down to Central Jersey and stalls...Philly was 82 yesterday while I was stuck at 55 all day-usually the island is in the same airmass Eastern Mass seems to really struggle compared to places like ISP/HVN. Out toward the Twin Forks and GON it's a different story but seems like a bit of longitude does help around here even when you're on the Sound or Atlantic. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 2 hours ago, kdxken said: Damn it more snow! When will it end? Indeed. The 15" I received this past season on top of the whopping 11" from last season want to know when the madness will end. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 1 Author Share Posted May 1 Clouds finally cleared out in Springfield. Perfect timing...have to clean up dog poop later. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: It kicked out of here about an hour ago-skies cleared and temps up to 68-70 Turning into an A+ spring day. Wasn’t expecting this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 1 Author Share Posted May 1 so close 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 50 degrees, with a DP of 47. If you close your eyes (and tune out any sense of reality), it feels almost like the 80's that we were promised. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 7 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: Turning into an A+ spring day. Wasn’t expecting this. yup, up to 76 degrees here....dare I say hot in the sun? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 1 Author Share Posted May 1 Certainly some challenging temperature forecasts the past few days but it's not like the llvl airmass was particularly cool. Any breaks of Sun or event a small period of stronger heating mixing will occur quickly and temperatures will sky rocket. Under the thicker clouds and overcast you screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 Glad we he not thee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 1 hour ago, Spanks45 said: yup, up to 76 degrees here....dare I say hot in the sun? There is a nice breeze and not terrible dewpoints though so overall I would say it’s quite comfy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 4 hours ago, CT Rain said: Is it that rare? I feel like it happens quite a bit this time of year. Rare?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 2 Share Posted May 2 55/41 today. Finished with 1.32” of rain. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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