Severe Weather 4-25 through 4-28-24

[yoda]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
122 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 112 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Dangerous convective environment in place today and into tonight.
Storms have already fired out west with severe and tornado
warnings already issued this morning. A special balloon sounding
issued by the NSSL near Weatherford shows a concerning profile
with 2500 J/kg SBCAPE, 0-1km SRH near 25 kts, effective shear of
60 knots all indicative of a volatile air mass in place. A PDS
Tornado Watch has already been issued for western Oklahoma and
western north Texas with the expectation this will likely be
expanded eastward within the next several hours. Guidance has
trended a bit slower with the forward progression of supercell
thunderstorms, and the latest indication is central Oklahoma
should be impacted by dangerous supercell thundrestorms capable of
producing strong to violent tornadoes within the 3 PM to 9 PM time
frame.

Complicating this is the high potential for very heavy rainfall
which will quickly lead to flash flooding issues where these
storms set up. The WPC has issued a high risk of flash flooding
for parts of east-central Oklahoma, though it should be stressed
that there is uncertainty with the placement of this. Central and
southern Oklahoma are at risk of dangerous flash flooding issues.

Repeated rounds of thunderstorms are expected, and the public
should not let their guard down after a storm has passed.
Many public events are occurring today and with people out of the
office/school, there is a high concern in our office of people
being out on the roads or away from shelters. We urge those who
can to remain near a shelter today as the environment resembles
that of previous historic tornadic outbreaks. Please heed
warnings!

Thompson

[canderson]

That cell NW of Seymour TX is insane. 
 

Edit: and now PDS warned 

[WxWatcher007]

[BYG Jacob]

 

[canderson]

I want video of the Seymour tornado. Its metrics are off the charts and radar is wiiiiild

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, canderson said:

I want video of the Seymour tornado. It’s metric’s are off the charts and radar is wiiiiild

It’s incredibly impressive on radar. Thankfully NW of the municipal center. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

I spent weeks at a time living out of a small apartment (it has satellite TV) above the shop in Kamay, TX when we were drilling wells.  Kamay is in SW Wichita County about an hour away from possible impact.  I thought back when this storm was approaching Knox City it would easily pass W as it headed into Oklahoma, but it made a sharp right turn before Knox City.  I had thought if the storm produced a tornado it would have passed N of Knox City, in fact.

 

I can't tell what Nick Busby on RHY'A is looking at.

[aldamon]

Wow Seymour:

https://streamable.com/ncrocy

[zinski1990]

Well this is a bust. Oklahomas cursed now

[Quincy]

2 minutes ago, zinski1990 said:

Well this is a bust. Oklahomas cursed now

OUN doubling down. The storms from NW Texas into the Red River area have meant business, but so far it’s looking like a big dud for central Oklahoma and the metro area. 

It’s not over yet, but I really didn’t expect radar to be this quiet.  

[WxWatcher007]

51 minutes ago, Quincy said:

OUN doubling down. The storms from NW Texas into the Red River area have meant business, but so far it’s looking like a big dud for central Oklahoma and the metro area. 

It’s not over yet, but I really didn’t expect radar to be this quiet.  

In your experience, how often does a multi-day setup produce consecutive high end days?

[canderson]

Not even an shower anywhere between Lawton and Stillwater or East. Buuuuuuuuuuuuuusted methinks 

[Sydney Claridge]

5 minutes ago, canderson said:

Not even a shower anywhere between Lawton and Stillwater or East. Buuuuuuuuuuuuuusted methinks 

It looks like there might be some attempts at storm initiation over the DFW area, but I’m not sure if something will emerge from that.

[canderson]

16 minutes ago, Sydney Claridge said:

It looks like there might be some attempts at storm initiation over the DFW area, but I’m not sure if something will emerge from that.

That cell S of Ardmore need watched if it’s moving into that peak environment 

[canderson]

The Lawton cell with rotation might track all the way to OKC …..

[Sydney Claridge]

The storm that has gone up over the Tioga, TX and Whitesboro, TX areas north of DFW needs to be watched closely. It is not (yet) severe, but the reflectivity and echo tops look to be increasing.

If it can strengthen as it moves into southern Oklahoma, it is completely isolated.

[Sydney Claridge]

11 minutes ago, Sydney Claridge said:

The storm that has gone up over the Tioga, TX and Whitesboro, TX areas north of DFW needs to be watched closely. It is not (yet) severe, but the reflectivity and echo tops look to be increasing.

If it can strengthen as it moves into southern Oklahoma, it is completely isolated.

The last of the visible satellite is showing a decent initiation attempt along the Red River with this storm.

Obviously the best severe potential is further west, but it still needs to be watched closely. I’m pretty sure these initiation attempts might be associated with the LLJ given their south-to-north movement.

[Quincy]

Radar confirmed tornado in Norman a short time ago. We dodged the worst of it in Moore, but it was a close call. Never totally count out the threat when parameters are in place and storms are still ongoing or initiating. It could have been worse, but this was bad enough. 

[canderson]

3 minutes ago, Quincy said:

Radar confirmed tornado in Norman a short time ago. We dodged the worst of it in Moore, but it was a close call. Never totally count out the threat when parameters are in place and storms are still ongoing or initiating. It could have been worse, but this was bad enough. 

Yup even tho the cells are not discrete they are bombing away right now 

[andyhb]

Large tornado just went on the west side of Ardmore.

[Misstertwister]

I’m battling a couple of sick kids that need to go down for bed. Looks like most the bad stuff is south and east of us in Edmond/Deer Creek for the night. Opinion on here from the professionals to put the kids to bed and tuck in for the night? I know the watch is until 3AM but exhausted from all the activity today and taking care of the sick kids 

[Tezeta]

poppin off

[KSWx]

Nasty CC drop on the storm going into Sulphur.

 

Edit: Sulphur, OK appears to have taken a direct hit; this thing needs a PDS tag.

[KSWx]

4 minutes ago, KSWx said:

Nasty CC drop on the storm going into Sulphur.

 

Edit: Sulphur, OK appears to have taken a direct hit; this thing needs a PDS tag.

PDS warned now.

[cheese007]

6 minutes ago, KSWx said:

Nasty CC drop on the storm going into Sulphur.

 

Edit: Sulphur, OK appears to have taken a direct hit; this thing needs a PDS tag.

Might be about to be hit again

[KSWx]

2 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

Might be about to be hit again

Yeah, they're already under another warning. This is an absolute worst case scenario. Reports of people trapped with rescue efforts underway and now they've got another potential tor coming through 10 mins later.

[KSWx]

Wow.

[ICEHOCEY77]

PDS warned now. Velo scans are off the chart

[cheese007]

7 minutes ago, KSWx said:

Yeah, they're already under another warning. This is an absolute worst case scenario. Reports of people trapped with rescue efforts underway and now they've got another potential tor coming through 10 mins later.

About to get tor number 3

[KSWx]

3 minutes ago, ICEHOCEY77 said:

PDS warned now. Velo scans are off the chart