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Severe Weather 4-25 through 4-28-24


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Before it was clearly on the ground, it was the most rapidly rotating wall cloud I had ever seen.  The the multiple funnels appealed.  I was at work, not sure what got so many chasers on the one storm.  The MO tornado warning that Hall briefly showed on radar looks like it is soon to be on the ground.

Never see such a storm watching Ryan Hall.

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Hey guys… not from this sub forum but happened to be in the area. Almost got ran over by the Lincoln, NE tornado. not chasing just driving through. Apologies for the freak out I’m more of a casual weather fan and have never seen a tornado in real life before. Legit thought I was going to take a direct hit. Anyway just thought I’d share.

 

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10 minutes ago, TheNiño said:

Hey guys… not from this sub forum but happened to be in the area. Almost got ran over by the Lincoln, NE tornado. not chasing just driving through. Apologies for the freak out I’m more of a casual weather fan and have never seen a tornado in real life before. Legit thought I was going to take a direct hit. Anyway just thought I’d share.

 

Also, please don’t give that out for free. @BuffaloWeathercan hook you up with media contacts 

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17 minutes ago, TheNiño said:

Hey guys… not from this sub forum but happened to be in the area. Almost got ran over by the Lincoln, NE tornado. not chasing just driving through. Apologies for the freak out I’m more of a casual weather fan and have never seen a tornado in real life before. Legit thought I was going to take a direct hit. Anyway just thought I’d share.

Beyond insane that you weren't chasing and saw that! Also the debris nearly hitting those that were outside, wow. Glad your okay.

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44 minutes ago, TheNiño said:

Hey guys… not from this sub forum but happened to be in the area. Almost got ran over by the Lincoln, NE tornado. not chasing just driving through. Apologies for the freak out I’m more of a casual weather fan and have never seen a tornado in real life before. Legit thought I was going to take a direct hit. Anyway just thought I’d share.

 

Thanks for sharing. Glad you’re ok. 

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I went out tonight and I didn't look at my computer since 8:15. But I left my GRLevel3 on, and it saved data. I discovered this cluster of 7 tornadoes. (8:57PMEDT) I have no idea how 7 tornadoes happened here near Afton Iowa. And, by the way, there are 95 tornadoes on SPC storm reports.

another half dozen tornadoes in iowa4.jpg

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Definitely a day to remember. One of the larger Plains April tornado outbreaks in several years. 

Tomorrow is a really complex day. I’m not even going to pretend to look at it in detail, outside of Oklahoma. Since I live right in the middle of the threat zone. 

Guidance is in strong agreement with early storm initiation, we’re talking scattered to numerous thunderstorms in Oklahoma by late morning. 00z HRRR and to some extent the 00z 3km NAM show most of the ML CIN eroded by 18-19z over much of the state. 

There really are several scenarios for Oklahoma…

1. Early day convection is widespread and largely sub-severe. It would overturn the environment and limit the potential for isolated supercells. Still, this scenario would likely produce some large hail and damaging winds, along with at least a threat for a few brief tornadoes.

2. Early convection is somewhat isolated, but still occurs. Some of the storms are severe, but the main story is redevelopment south/east of the early day storms in the afternoon. You could see at least a couple of supercells evolve, with a severe/tornado risk. Outflow boundaries would be key to watch, especially as the low level jet cranks up late day.

3. There is little early day convection, but given expected thermodynamics, supercells erupt relatively in the afternoon. Even if there are numerous storms, mergers and interactions, the parameter space will support  significant severe, in the form of very large hail and strong tornadoes. 

Based on what I’m looking at, virtually all of the high res guidance shows a volatile parameter space by midday, at least on an isolated basis across Oklahoma. 

I’m also seeing some kinks in the forecast hodographs between 2-4km, at least through much of the day. This may dampen the longevity of supercells, particularly with early day into afternoon storms.

No matter what scenario happens, I’d expect a fairly messy storm mode with at least a few supercells. This may mitigate the risk for long track tornadoes (like what Nebraska/Iowa saw today). However, it may be hard to get advance warning lead time if you have a complex, clustered storm mode with embedded supercells spinning off tornadoes.

If the atmosphere isn’t completely overturned, there’s the potential for some very large hodograph curvature by 00z, as the low level jet kicks in. Look at any high res model and you can see daily (cherry) pick PDS Tor soundings around the area. 

It’s going to be a long Saturday…

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Yeah. Tomorrow looks ugly. If for nothing else, you could see a Moderate Risk, simply for the fact that the storms are likely, regardless of storm mode, supercell longevity, etc. Whether they are numerous or more isolated/intense, it seems like the overall probability of severe across central into eastern Oklahoma is quite high and may warrant higher severe probabilities.

Really the only things that could dampen the threat a bit would be a mass of early day storms and outflow, along with messy storm modes. Even in this “best” case, it seems probable that a storm or two threads the needle. 

Buckle up. 

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1 hour ago, Quincy said:

Yeah. Tomorrow looks ugly. If for nothing else, you could see a Moderate Risk, simply for the fact that the storms are likely, regardless of storm mode, supercell longevity, etc. Whether they are numerous or more isolated/intense, it seems like the overall probability of severe across central into eastern Oklahoma is quite high and may warrant higher severe probabilities.

Really the only things that could dampen the threat a bit would be a mass of early day storms and outflow, along with messy storm modes. Even in this “best” case, it seems probable that a storm or two threads the needle. 

Buckle up. 

I absolutely agree with your analysis so far. If storm mode is not messy later today, this environment has the hallmark and look of a classic tornado outbreak. Hard to imagine it surpassing what we seen yesterday. However, the parameter space is more significant. Very possible if things come together this could be a Friday repeat but over a much larger areal capacity. 

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