Ji Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 On thanksgiving. Pattern change is coming. Good times ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nynjpaweather Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 So you are off the ledge until the next model run? Winter uncanceled? lol JI, for your own sake, do not look at every model run beyond five days. You are going to get yourself sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 On 11/16/2010 at 1:37 PM, nynjpaweather said: So you are off the ledge until the next model run? Winter uncanceled? lol JI, for your own sake, do not look at every model run beyond five days. You are going to get yourself sick. Too late he's past that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 On 11/16/2010 at 12:58 PM, Ji said: On thanksgiving. Pattern change is coming. Good times ahead That might be a slop event in DC. Keep in mind, it's still November. A few days later is more intriguing, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 On 11/16/2010 at 1:41 PM, Analog96 said: That might be a slop event in DC. Keep in mind, it's still November. A few days later is more intriguing, IMO. The boundary layer temps are plus 7 so it would rain if the model run was perfect. As you said, it's still november. It's good to see Ji off the ledge for a day or part of a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 On 11/16/2010 at 1:47 PM, usedtobe said: The boundary layer temps are plus 7 so it would rain if the model run was perfect. As you said, it's still november. It's good to see Ji off the ledge for a day or part of a day. Up in my area, that first event may be more interesting. For the DC area, I could see rain, ending as a little slushy accumuation. I like the second event possibilities better Sunday Night- Monday of that weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 On 11/16/2010 at 12:58 PM, Ji said: On thanksgiving. Pattern change is coming. Good times ahead DT sez the cold ain't coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 On 11/16/2010 at 1:57 PM, Midlo Snow Maker said: DT sez the cold ain't coming Good, now I'm more confident in the cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 thou shall live and die by each model run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 On 11/16/2010 at 2:01 PM, Analog96 said: Good, now I'm more confident in the cold! listen to his model tracker he does have some good points Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 this should be in the main weather forum. disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 On 11/16/2010 at 2:20 PM, Midlo Snow Maker said: listen to his model tracker he does have some good points He spins things into good points, they usually end up wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 It's too early for this to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 The 12z GFS should make a few weenies rise down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 Congrats JI http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_384l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 On 11/16/2010 at 4:46 PM, Snow11 said: Congrats JI http://www.nco.ncep....fs_pcp_384l.gif Go back to NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 If I see one more person post at 850mb temp chart and scream SNOW, I will not be held accountable for my actions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2010111612&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=168hr im not sure how this translates 2 days later into snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 On 11/16/2010 at 5:06 PM, Scuddz said: If I see one more person post at 850mb temp chart and scream SNOW, I will not be held accountable for my actions. but but but the blue line is all the way down to florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 On 11/16/2010 at 4:46 PM, Snow11 said: Congrats JI http://www.nco.ncep....fs_pcp_384l.gif December 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 On 11/16/2010 at 5:06 PM, Scuddz said: If I see one more person post at 850mb temp chart and scream SNOW, I will not be held accountable for my actions. That chart actually does support snow, as we're heading into December. IF the 12Z GFS verified from that far out, it would probably spread North the next day as well, another Dec 5ish snowstorm?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongIslandHurricanes Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 On 11/16/2010 at 12:58 PM, Ji said: On thanksgiving. Pattern change is coming. Good times ahead Thought you canceled winter???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 On 11/16/2010 at 5:06 PM, Scuddz said: If I see one more person post at 850mb temp chart and scream SNOW, I will not be held accountable for my actions. I was about to post the exact same thing. Everytime I see one of those runs, I spend the next 5 minutes trying to figure out whats going on at the surface when it would be nice if the poster had both or at least commented on the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 On 11/16/2010 at 9:35 PM, Master of Disaster said: I was about to post the exact same thing. Everytime I see one of those runs, I spend the next 5 minutes trying to figure out whats going on at the surface when it would be nice if the poster had both or at least commented on the other. Do you know how to read or access gridded data? All the sfc info you could ever want is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 On 11/16/2010 at 9:56 PM, Analog96 said: Do you know how to read or access gridded data? All the sfc info you could ever want is there. Even if he does, I'd still like to know both of those. The way I've been getting surface data leaves much to be desired. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolineWx Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 I would not go with any chance of wintry weather this far out, i think the southeast ridge is going to hang on strong and that may not allow the cold air to go very far to the south, that may allow systems to ride along the front like the GFS has but i'm not sure if we will have the cold air if it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 The weekend into early next week is looking pretty warm here. And, after today's chill, temps have really jumped in the last hour. Almost 60 degrees here, after being in the 40s most of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 On 11/17/2010 at 1:37 AM, FrederickWX said: The weekend into early next week is looking pretty warm here. And, after today's chill, temps have really jumped in the last hour. Almost 60 degrees here, after being in the 40s most of the day. They jumped because the warm front came north. Friday and Saturday look to be in the 50s then maybe lower 60s in the first part of next week. Not super warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BayBreeze Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 On 11/16/2010 at 1:47 PM, usedtobe said: The boundary layer temps are plus 7 so it would rain if the model run was perfect. As you said, it's still november. It's good to see Ji off the ledge for a day or part of a day. damn the person/people whoever came up with these "quick look at" type things to determine rain/snow lines around here. gotta look at the whole column. 1000-500mb thicknesses...partial thicknesses...850 temps. toss em all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 How's that snow looking now Ji? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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