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Sunday, April 14, 2024 Thunder Thread


weatherwiz
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We are still just about 2.5 weeks away from the official start of our severe weather season, but that doesn't mean we can't get severe weather before then. The greatest overall potential is to the west of our region where the Storm Prediction Center has an enhanced risk in place for the potential of damaging wind gusts. A marginal risk for severe weather extends to the I-91 corridor across Massachusetts and Connecticut. 

image.png.570fb6458e11b8d8d19048eb1b84e64c.png

Anyways, the most impressive element Sunday will the advection of very steep mid-level lapse rates:

image.thumb.png.f80df5002ae1374979c70851d19b40e0.png

Shear will be impressive with 40-50+ knots of bulk shear overspreading the region

image.thumb.png.d7cfef1d2cc5cb73049a7487bd934362.png

Unfortunately, despite the presence of very steep mid-level lapse rates, surface temperatures only into the 60's with dewpoints into the 40's (maybe climbing into the lower 50's late) will hold back on instability potential and instability will be marginal at best. Also, while we have impressive shortwave energy and shortwave trough digging into the region, this does lag the sfc cold front so the best forcing will be a bit displaced:

image.thumb.png.9f4c52979efc5e433484e0f476eb0b1b.png

What can we expect? 

A line of heavy rain and embedded thunder should move across the region, particularly across western areas during the late afternoon and early evening

image.thumb.png.fe61f53922d51418713978c426d95d56.png

Combination of steep lapse rates, strong winds aloft, and a bit of an inverted V look will promote the potential for some localized damaging wind gusts within the line

2024041312_NAM_036_41.93,-72.90_winter_ml.png

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