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Severe Weather 4-15 and 4-16-24


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Virtual starting point: Ottumwa, IA. Virtual starting area is from Oskaloosa IA to Kirksville MO. I'm not out there this week.

Ottumwa is the north side hedge (2/3 of the way) for lunch and data. Easier to adjust south than north, esp fast storm motion. Goal is to position for either the warm front WF or outflow boundary OFB. Normally we like OFB, but Iowa loves to WF. Plus they may become one diffuse boundary with all the mixing and wind today.

Cell northeast of KC (at 11am Central) looks like an OFB work but it's getting close to the WF. Said cell(s) will likely maintain or create outflow. I would position closer to the WF in case that's it. No way to catch up from the south; so, be north at first. If the OFB ends up being it, adjusting south or just waiting for it would be relatively easy. Either way a classic dry line DL is coming out of Kansas. It's not just a Pacific front; it's warm and dry behind it. Moisture ahead is deeper than yesterday. Really both WF and OFB, plus other minor boundaries, could deliver at their intersections with the DL.

If the WF and OFB surge north the target might have to shift more into Iowa. However, if an outflow can anchor then northern Missouri is in play. Also, I know I'd chase east from the starting points above. IIRC all that terrain is OK. It's not Kansas, but it's not the Ozarks or eastern Oklahoma either.

Good luck and be safe!

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