Weather Will Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 WB 6Z EPS, with a positively tilted trough along the east coast at Day 6, looks like any tropical disturbance would veer to the east... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 29 Author Share Posted July 29 2 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z EPS, with a positively tilted trough along the east coast at Day 6, looks like any tropical disturbance would veer to the east... Yeah that’s a kicker look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherShak Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 Interesting to see what happens next 3-5 days. GFS has a storm spinning in the gulf for a while before turning into this beast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherShak Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 Interesting to see what happens next 3-5 days. GFS has a storm spinning in the gulf for a while before turning into this beast. Euro has it off OBX. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 Models just struggling with where to bring it ashore and throw copious moisture at our area that dries up on arrival in southern Virginia and then re-forms in PA. Once they resolve that, they will center on a solution... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 31 Author Share Posted July 31 There’s going to be a lot of waffling op runs the next few days but the main takeaway is that this remains a viable TC genesis opportunity that could threaten the EC (most likely SE) or E Gulf before some type of recurve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 Where would we want this to go for a good shot at widespread rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 Much more robust convection today See if it can persist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 31 Author Share Posted July 31 1 hour ago, JenkinsJinkies said: Where would we want this to go for a good shot at widespread rain? I’d say the Gulf right now with the ridge/trough pulling it NE but the steering pattern kind of collapses if this takes its time getting there. I still favor something along the EC, which would be unlikely to help the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 44 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I’d say the Gulf right now with the ridge/trough pulling it NE but the steering pattern kind of collapses if this takes its time getting there. I still favor something along the EC, which would be unlikely to help the region. GFS moving towards the Euro. This stays out to sea most likely, at worse maybe some swells along the East Coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HokieEnginerd Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 6 hours ago, frd said: GFS moving towards the Euro. This stays out to sea most likely, at worse maybe some swells along the East Coast. You may want to look at the 12Z and 18Z runs. The Euro caved hard towards the GFS. Florida needs to be concerned about a stalled out tropical system at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 7 minutes ago, HokieEnginerd said: You may want to look at the 12Z and 18Z runs. The Euro caved hard towards the GFS. Florida needs to be concerned about a stalled out tropical system at this point. So Dorian 2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 1 Author Share Posted August 1 Very interesting track changes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherShak Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 Very interesting track changes GFS persisting. Euro doesn’t seem to have an organized storm now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 1 Author Share Posted August 1 33 minutes ago, WeatherShak said: GFS persisting. Euro doesn’t seem to have an organized storm now? It probably organizes later if the 18z run continued. If anything I think intensity guidance got more aggressive today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 Pretty crazy GFS run major flooding potential for someone if that verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 Heading to obx this weekend. Be nice to catch a little action preferably towards end of week once beached out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 Silly GFS fun lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 7 minutes ago, dailylurker said: Silly GFS fun lol Go home GFS, you're drunk. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 I know it's probably not the best tropical model, but 12z CMC would be a little interesting next Tuesday into Wednesday with 97L around here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherShak Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 Heading to obx this weekend. Be nice to catch a little action preferably towards end of week once beached out I’m heading down too! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 2 Author Share Posted August 2 Aside from 97L, the basin still looks primed for a big peak. Very favorable conditions are lining up as expected. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 Latest Euro run gets remnants into DMV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherShak Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 I’m heading down too!Dude! @rvarookie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherShak Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 Dude! [mention=11648]rvarookie[/mention]First was gfs. This is euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 35 minutes ago, WeatherShak said: First was gfs. This is euro. Yeesh that’s a little more than need. May kick out the tourist for that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 2 hours ago, weatherCCB said: Latest Euro run gets remnants into DMV Crazy WPC precip map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 1 hour ago, frd said: Crazy WPC precip map Need to move that map 100 miles west wishful thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 WB 6Z EPS thru Day 6 Seems like the faster solutions have a trough taking it out to sea. If it misses the first trough then things could get interesting further North later next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z EPS thru Day 6 Seems like the faster solutions have a trough taking it out to sea. If it misses the first trough then things could get interesting further North later next week. Normally in cases like this the rain solutions trend East, and we end up with just swells on the beach. As you mentioned, unless the trough misses, then things would be wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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